Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

January 7th/8th snowstorm obs/nowcast


TauntonBlizzard2013

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
11 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Great post. You have a representative sounding saved from earlier (or if you recall which model / time, I'll find it) demonstrating these issues? No worries if not it's been a long day!

The "midlevel magic" was thoroughly discussed and anticipated, but it seemed to underperform in central / northeastern MA and I was wondering why.

It was looking at the 6z stuff...nam and GFS. Might be able to grab it from pivotal weather? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Mid level magicians pulled a dissapearing act. QPF queens ftw.

Storm is extremely forgettable here..sucked.

It actually worked well in SE areas. If you went by QPF and VV...it was congrats sharks off of Chatham.  There was no real closed low either with this at 700. I think with the lack of a good CCB and mid level features, you lacked the true features to get some good tilted lift from H7 through H5...through the DGZ. Didn't happen.  In my mind I sort of envisioned a band near Kevin through ORH and you...and I almost thought it would continue. But it broke apart when the meaty lift came into Ginxy to Boston area.  I'm glad I thought SE areas would do well aside from OES. I thought they looked good for fronto banding. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It actually worked well in SE areas. If you went by QPF and VV...it was congrats sharks off of Chatham.  There was no real closed low either with this at 700. I think with the lack of a good CCB and mid level features, you lacked the true features to get some good tilted lift from H7 through H5...through the DGZ. Didn't happen.  In my mind I sort of envisioned a band near Kevin through ORH and you...and I almost thought it would continue. But it broke apart when the meaty lift came into Ginxy to Boston area.  I'm glad I thought SE areas would do well aside from OES. I thought they looked good for fronto banding. 

Obviously....my point was the interior folks were told not to fret QPF, and the QPF charts were pretty damn accurate.

It failed in that regard.

There was a band setting up from s ORH co through me, but once you made that post about things tightening near Boston mid-late PM, I said "oh $hit".....CJ rob, and that is exactly. what took place.

God, I hate these events....just give me a real storm and enough with oes mesoscale horse$hit.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It actually worked well in SE areas. If you went by QPF and VV...it was congrats sharks off of Chatham.  There was no real closed low either with this at 700. I think with the lack of a good CCB and mid level features, you lacked the true features to get some good tilted lift from H7 through H5...through the DGZ. Didn't happen.  In my mind I sort of envisioned a band near Kevin through ORH and you...and I almost thought it would continue. But it broke apart when the meaty lift came into Ginxy to Boston area.  I'm glad I thought SE areas would do well aside from OES. I thought they looked good for fronto banding. 

I mean the band more or less matched up with the Euro H7 00z forecast last night. 

I think two red flag to the west of that area was the sounding probably wasn't fully saturated and then a lot of the lift was forecast above the DGZ. Not good for ratios. So much for 15:1.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, OceanStWx said:

I mean the band more or less matched up with the Euro H7 00z forecast last night. 

I think two red flag to the west of that area was the sounding probably wasn't fully saturated and then a lot of the lift was forecast above the DGZ. Not good for ratios. So much for 15:1.

All I kept hearing was how the interior shouldn't worry bc everything was saturated the everything was orgasmic in the SGZ.

This was a lamer Boxing day.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All I kept hearing was how the interior shouldn't worry bc everything was saturated the everything was orgasmic in the SGZ.

This was a lamer Boxing day.

You can see it in the BOS sounding at 00z. The red and green lines should be on top of one another, and that light gray line for omega is all negative above the DGZ. That's the dangerous game we play when getting too confident about the ratio forecast.

2017-01-07_22-30-24.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All I kept hearing was how the interior shouldn't worry bc everything was saturated the everything was orgasmic in the SGZ.

This was a lamer Boxing day.

They had some issues when I looked this morning on the soundings. But I've also seen it before only to have said area get pummeled. They are only as good as the model output. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, OceanStWx said:

You can see it in the BOS sounding at 00z. The red and green lines should be on top of one another, and that light gray line for omega is all negative above the DGZ. That's the dangerous game we play when getting too confident about the ratio forecast.

2017-01-07_22-30-24.png

I hear no mention of that...just talk about how everything was northwest, SGZ was deeply saturated temps were perfect. Everything verifying nw, blah, blah.

I have to step up my game with stuff like that....if I understood those things, I would have ignored all of that crap and went lighter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

They had some issues when I looked this morning on the soundings. But I've also seen it before only to have said area get pummeled. They are only as good as the model output. 

I don't mean to sound like I'm blaming anyone or calling anyone out.....these details are so fine and sometimes its just impossible to know.

Just frustrated, but I'll live.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't mean to sound like I'm blaming anyone or calling anyone out.....these details are so fine and sometimes its just impossible to know.

Just frustrated, but I'll live.

That's fine. I'm too lazy, but I noticed something like that even in SE MA....and you know what happened there today.  It's just tough to figure. Like I said, I had no numbers there, but I probably would have been to high on the higher end of the range. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, CoastalWx said:

That's fine. I'm too lazy, but I noticed something like that even in SE MA....and you know what happened there today.  It's just tough to figure. Like I said, I had no numbers there, but I probably would have been to high on the higher end of the range. 

I went 6-12"....I'll have to measure again, but I had 4.5" a couple of house ago.

That is EURO QPF.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...