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Jan 6-8 Winter Storm Observations


Wow

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8 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

It's a known bias in modeling. We all just try to ignore it leading up to an event. The 800mb warm nose pushing 15 or 20 miles farther than modeled is as dependable as Cold air damning events hanging on much longer than modeled.

thats a much better way to say what i was trying to in my post (but its after 1 and my brain isnt functioning fully lol).  generally in these storms if mby is on the line as it was the last few days, i assume that the line will waffle back and forth causing the precip to go between snow/sleet/frz rain. it happens more often than not in this situation when we are not already well below freezing when the storm moves in.  I like to see it a good several counties away to feel comfortable (and sometimes that isnt enough!)

but hey, it all evens out.  in CAD events we rock :guitar:  we can still get those surprise snowfalls to move through at times (like last march). elevation dependent storms also tend to work out better here.  this storm was about what i expected and i saw some good heavy snow :thumbsup:

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

Got NAM'd and HRRR'd

I've got NAM'd so many times...When the NAM shows me getting snow you know it isn't going to happen.  But when the NAM shows me not getting snow and the Euro does...of course the NAM wins.  I've avoided the weather boards this year and now wishing I wouldn't of started tracking this one.

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Man I am wasting my best precip of the night on sleet.  I guess I shouldn't be surprised but this storm was forecast to be so much colder for all of us.  Just a few days ago I was on the northern edge of the system.  the NW trend never fails I guess. 

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this may be an "odd" observation but i just zoomed out a bit on the weatherunderground radar.  what it is depicting looks VERY much like what the models have been showing with the snow/sleet/rain lines...and animated looks similar to the animated model maps. 

what is interesting, is that while they "match" in a way, they do not really accurately represent the ground truth of what we are seeing and reporting.  not sure if they use a similar algorithm or not, but if they do it needs to be tweaked some lol

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2 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

That is shocking..even they might bust up there 

The heavier stuff is supposed to continue here after dawn so I'm hopeful that's not the case... and the local mets said we might get bay-effect snow with northerly winds tomorrow.

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2 minutes ago, rduwx said:

I've got NAM'd so many times...When the NAM shows me getting snow you know it isn't going to happen.  But when the NAM shows me not getting snow and the Euro does...of course the NAM wins.  I've avoided the weather boards this year and now wishing I wouldn't of started tracking this one.

I was wondering where you been? good to see you! Hate you got Nam'd 

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