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January 7th/8th Storm Discussion


TauntonBlizzard2013

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The NAM's low pressure track was not really that NW of the 18z run... not appreciably so to even mention.

However, the pressure pattern "bulged" more to the NW, along with, the QPF field expanded along with - those two are giving the illusion of being NW ...but 'technically' ... the correct statement is that the 00z run depicts the low pressure's sensible impact farther NW.

Now ...I'm not sure that's a good thing or a bad thing; I suspect so long as it's snowing ...most in here at this particular moment will be satisfied.  The take away for me is that this is the fourth cycle in the row now where there was a complexion shift farther west.... painfully slowly.   It's not inconceivable that this could just up and cut 50 naut mi closer and expand that pressure pattern/QPF that much more by go time.  

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The NAM's low pressure track was not really that NW of the 18z run... not appreciably so to even mention.

However, the pressure pattern "bulged" more to the NW, along with, the QPF field expanded along with - those two are giving the illusion of being NW ...but 'technically' ... the correct statement is that the 00z run depicts the low pressure's sensible impact farther NW.

Now ...I'm not sure that's a good thing or a bad thing; I suspect so long as it's snowing ...most in here at this particular moment will be satisfied.  The take away for me is that this is the fourth cycle in the row now where there was a complexion shift farther west.... painfully slowly.   It's not inconceivable that this could just up and cut 50 naut mi closer and expand that pressure pattern/QPF that much more by go time.  

Here's the difference and that jet streak keeps amping up.

namconus_uv250_us_38.png

namconus_uv250_us_40.png

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9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

why...or why not?

not sure why i cant post the h5 nam but trough its relatively neutral with the pv lobe still lagging behind swinging east. for west zones or further north, we need it to dig on the backside to get the tug left. otherwise, what we are hoping for is just a more nw precip shield.

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Yes, Where those end up, Folks NW will rejoice

There's certain times where you undercut the QPF and then there are certain times where you might augment it higher (or at least the snow totals higher) based on the mid-level look...this is one of those latter scenarios as modeled on the NAM/RGEM. It might show a place like BOS getting like 6-8", but in reality, the mid-levels would probably argue for a stripe of double digits in that zone.

That's obviously if that type of solution is what we have on the eve of the storm.

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

not sure why i cant post the h5 nam but trough its relatively neutral with the pv lobe still lagging behind swinging east. for west zones or further north, we need it to dig on the backside to get the tug left. otherwise, what we are hoping for is just a more nw precip shield.

thanks man.  hoping for one of those well inland weenie bands, sort of like tonight but much more intense.

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