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January 7th/8th Storm Discussion


TauntonBlizzard2013

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2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

On the GFS, would that imply around the CTRV?

I actually didn't see the fields on the 18z run. Just got home. Ctrv is on the line, but you also need to have some lift in the DGZ. Some models showed a disconnect out that way. Lift not exactly inline with the DGZ. But I have seen models put out a good band well NW of the low, in that H7-H5 layer. The key is looking for good lift near H5 and also looking to see if the thermal packing is just to the south. You don't want it well offshore, but near the a coast would work. That helps induce a circulation back NW into the cold air. That storm last March was a great example of a weenie band well NW of the low. From Kevin to SE NH jacked in that when all the models had cape cod.

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2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

You can see how nice the forcing is that the GFS is insisting on developing that weak inverted trough. Synoptic scale lift with that southern stream s/w is trying to force some kind of surface reflection. 

I think a more widespread light event is more likely than the GFS's inverted trough. 

Nice snow growth18_GFS_054_41.66,-71.77_severe_ml.png

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I actually didn't see the fields on the 18z run. Just got home. Ctrv is on the line, but you also need to have some lift in the DGZ. Some models showed a disconnect out that way. Lift not exactly inline with the DGZ. But I have seen models put out a good band well NW of the low, in that H7-H5 layer. The key is looking for good lift near H5 and also looking to see if the thermal packing is just to the south. You don't want it well offshore, but near the a coast would work. That helps induce a circulation back NW into the cold air. That storm last March was a great example of a weenie band well NW of the low. From Kevin to SE NH jacked in that when all the models had cape cod.

Great post Scoots.

I don't remember that storm. What was it?

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11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Great post Scoots.

I don't remember that storm. What was it?

March 21. By no means am I saying that will happen. Just mentioning.

 

I'm looking at the GFS, jeez at hr 54 you could argue a slightly better srn s/w, but the surface reflection is definitely not as concentric. There are some signs of the comma head on the GFS, but also the precip in SE MA looks like a cstl front scenario from NE winds vs N winds,

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I don't want to sound like James.... but looking more closely early on at the GFS I actually thought it would produce something better.

Well see what 00z does but I wouldn't real call it a negative shift... although 10-20 miles will mean a lot to everybody 

 

still 2 days away... this is far from settled I think 

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I just looked aat the GFS 500 and it looks to me like the apex of the ridge is north of Boise, which is a good spot for the MA and SNE no?  That looks to have enough amplitude and in a good location, no?  The issue is that there is nothing to slow it down and bend it back once off the midatlantic coast.  Could a stronger southern sw create enough ridging to tuck it in a bit?  Or do we just need the low over the Midwest to back off?

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2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I just looked aat the GFS 500 and it looks to me like the apex of the ridge is north of Boise, which is a good spot for the MA and SNE no?  That looks to have enough amplitude and in a good location, no?  The issue is that there is nothing to slow it down and bend it back once off the midatlantic coast.  Could a stronger southern sw create enough ridging to tuck it in a bit?  Or do we just need the low over the Midwest to back off?

Yes, that ridge location is actually a very good spot for New England. The problem is the height field is a little flattened out behind tomorrows system and the lakes shortwave acts more like a kicker than a phaser.

 

The answer is yes, we can overcome those deficiencies a couple different ways...the most obvious being a stronger southern stream shortwave, or the PNA ridge becoming more amplified which makes the downstream flow more meridional which in turn allows the trough to amplify a bit more. Clock is obviously ticking rapidly though on getting more changes. the 12z changes today were surprisingly robust for a system this close, but given the extra uncertainty (I had brought this up yesterday with the PNA ridge) in this system, we had a better chance of seeing changes closer to the event than we typically see. We'll have to hope for one more push.

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Comparing the 12z GFS run to 06z, the changes out west were negligible. In fact, you could argue the ridge in the PAC NWwas ever so slightly flatter out west, and yet we saw those changes. The changes I saw started early with tomorrow's s/w and then the Plains s/w. If you compared hr 12 at 12z and hr 18 at 06z, the Rockies s/w approaching Denver already looked better. My attention is more on this feature. I think the other factors like what happens in the GL with that s/w and the PNA ridge are pieces of this whole puzzle. Important ones, but we want to see that s/w down south look a bit sharper and the height field in the east respond.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Comparing the 12z GFS run to 06z, the changes out west were negligible. In fact, you could argue the ridge in the PAC NWwas ever so slightly flatter out west, and yet we saw those changes. The changes I saw started early with tomorrow's s/w and then the Plains s/w. If you compared hr 12 at 12z and hr 18 at 06z, the Rockies s/w approaching Denver already looked better. My attention is more on this feature. I think the other factors like what happens in the GL with that s/w and the PNA ridge are pieces of this whole puzzle. Important ones, but we want to see that s/w down south look a bit sharper and the height field in the east respond.

Agreed. One thing to also keep in mind is the western CONUS has produced some mighty shortwaves this year. Most of the time it resulted in GLC's or Midwestern snowstorms but hopefully this theme will help us to get this guy up the coast..

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3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Because they've proven to be **** since they changed the models that were in it.

Yeah. This. 

 

Doesnt mean they they are wrong every time, just that here is really no use in basing a forecast off them unless there is significant support from other guidance. 

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