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January 7th/8th Storm Discussion


TauntonBlizzard2013

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Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

Slight shift for the worse..but not as dramatic as some of the analysis seemed to suggest. The bigger disappointment is the trend NW halting for the time being

Yeah it wasn't much....but when folks are on the line, they'll tend to spout a bit more hyperbole.

 

The PNA ridge was flatter this run too similar to the NAM....the NAM was able to overcome it with a much stronger southern stream shortwave, the GFS was not, so it ticked east. We'll see if that trend in the PNA continues at 00z...if it does, then we're probably done with the northwest trend. If the PNA can at least hold serve, then we can hope for a stronger southern stream to bring this a bit further NW....and obviously if the PNA starts trending back better, then that is the best case scenario.

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Unless we see a major change, I think this storm is a great QPF queen example for a portion of the area. Watch the mid levels. Look at RH, lift, and thermal packing.

You can see how nice the forcing is that the GFS is insisting on developing that weak inverted trough. Synoptic scale lift with that southern stream s/w is trying to force some kind of surface reflection. 

I think a more widespread light event is more likely than the GFS's inverted trough. 

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15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The GFS looks like garbage actually.

hopefully the 12z runs weren't a blip 

No it doenst

H5 still looks good. It's the surface that was the problem. Most likely the low jumping towards the convection. I thought this run should have been west with higher heights in the east 

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