January 7th/8th Storm Discussion

[ajisai]

4 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

8" Lifetitme????    Welcome to HEAVEN then man hahahaha.  Houston to Boston.  Wow.  And Hopefully Boston travels to Houston in a few weeks time.  

 

I'm ready to toss the hurricanes, tornadoes, and bayou flooding. Best memory I have is a White Christmas in 2004. It was only 1". 

[OceanStWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Euro seems to do this a lot in coastal systems. Places the best qpf where the lower level forcing seems to be. 

A hazard of all modeling really. But it could be right, but still someone to the W gets 15+:1 and comes in with the higher snow amounts.

[CCHurricane]

Draw your own conclusions:

HYA (Hyannis, Cape Cod)
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
SAT 00Z 07-JAN   1.0   -11.1    1020      58      50             546     530    
SAT 06Z 07-JAN  -1.1   -12.4    1025      60      53    0.00     548     529    
SAT 12Z 07-JAN  -0.3   -11.8    1026      57      84    0.00     551     530    
SAT 18Z 07-JAN   1.4   -10.1    1019      84      99    0.22     549     534    
SUN 00Z 08-JAN   1.5    -8.1    1011      84      97    0.71     545     536    
SUN 06Z 08-JAN  -1.1   -12.8    1012      76      99    0.31     531     521    
SUN 12Z 08-JAN  -5.0   -15.2    1017      78      26    0.03     526     512  

BOS (Boston)

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
SAT 00Z 07-JAN  -3.2   -14.5    1021      55       9             542     525    
SAT 06Z 07-JAN  -6.1   -15.0    1026      58      14    0.00     543     523    
SAT 12Z 07-JAN  -6.1   -13.9    1027      50      32    0.00     547     526    
SAT 18Z 07-JAN  -4.2   -12.9    1022      71      98    0.10     545     528    
SUN 00Z 08-JAN  -5.6   -13.0    1016      84      94    0.40     540     527    
SUN 06Z 08-JAN  -8.6   -14.8    1016      77      99    0.15     528     515    
SUN 12Z 08-JAN -12.6   -16.7    1018      83      24    0.01     522     508    

HVN (New Haven, CT)

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
SAT 00Z 07-JAN  -2.0   -14.2    1022      53      19             544     526    
SAT 06Z 07-JAN  -5.4   -14.2    1026      51      38    0.00     546     526    
SAT 12Z 07-JAN  -5.3   -13.4    1027      49      80    0.00     549     528    
SAT 18Z 07-JAN  -4.9   -13.1    1021      69      96    0.15     546     529    
SUN 00Z 08-JAN  -5.2   -11.4    1017      78      97    0.28     537     524    
SUN 06Z 08-JAN  -6.4   -14.7    1018      65      91    0.06     527     513    
SUN 12Z 08-JAN  -9.6   -17.7    1021      76      30    0.00     523     506    
SUN 18Z 08-JAN  -5.8   -18.7    1022      43      93    0.00     517     501    

 

[weathercoins]

Even more than most systems, people just aren't that aware of this storm coming. I know it's Boston but I think it's a mix of the relative surprise here combined with it not being a 12"+ areawide event plus weekend.

 

A surprise bullseye could be pretty close to BOS, EURO looking like that'll be possible 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

A hazard of all modeling really. But it could be right, but still someone to the W gets 15+:1 and comes in with the higher snow amounts.

Crude look at mid level looks to crush BOS and maybe even slightly west of them and right down through PVD metro. Obviously someone is gonna clean up too near PYM on the cold side of the CF where the OES CJ is intersecting it and they are getting awesome synoptic forcing overhead too. 

But definite 3 hour death band potential further NW. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Crude look at mid level looks to crush BOS and maybe even slightly west of them and right down through PVD metro. Obviously someone is gonna clean up too near PYM on the cold side of the CF where the OES CJ is intersecting it and they are getting awesome synoptic forcing overhead too. 

But definite 3 hour death band potential further NW. 

Does that make it up here?

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Crude look at mid level looks to crush BOS and maybe even slightly west of them and right down through PVD metro. Obviously someone is gonna clean up too near PYM on the cold side of the CF where the OES CJ is intersecting it and they are getting awesome synoptic forcing overhead too. 

But definite 3 hour death band potential further NW. 

I was just going to say, that f-gen/deformation map I showed a page or two back for the GFS, well the Euro version definitely took another bump NW from 12z despite what the QPF may show. The deformation axis is now like MVY to CHH instead of over ACK. That shifts the banding signal right into the 95 corridor for sure. Game on for them I'd say.

[mimillman]

5 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

Draw your own conclusions:

HYA (Hyannis, Cape Cod)
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
SAT 00Z 07-JAN   1.0   -11.1    1020      58      50             546     530    
SAT 06Z 07-JAN  -1.1   -12.4    1025      60      53    0.00     548     529    
SAT 12Z 07-JAN  -0.3   -11.8    1026      57      84    0.00     551     530    
SAT 18Z 07-JAN   1.4   -10.1    1019      84      99    0.22     549     534    
SUN 00Z 08-JAN   1.5    -8.1    1011      84      97    0.71     545     536    
SUN 06Z 08-JAN  -1.1   -12.8    1012      76      99    0.31     531     521    
SUN 12Z 08-JAN  -5.0   -15.2    1017      78      26    0.03     526     512  

BOS (Boston)

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
SAT 00Z 07-JAN  -3.2   -14.5    1021      55       9             542     525    
SAT 06Z 07-JAN  -6.1   -15.0    1026      58      14    0.00     543     523    
SAT 12Z 07-JAN  -6.1   -13.9    1027      50      32    0.00     547     526    
SAT 18Z 07-JAN  -4.2   -12.9    1022      71      98    0.10     545     528    
SUN 00Z 08-JAN  -5.6   -13.0    1016      84      94    0.40     540     527    
SUN 06Z 08-JAN  -8.6   -14.8    1016      77      99    0.15     528     515    
SUN 12Z 08-JAN -12.6   -16.7    1018      83      24    0.01     522     508    

HVN (New Haven, CT)

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
SAT 00Z 07-JAN  -2.0   -14.2    1022      53      19             544     526    
SAT 06Z 07-JAN  -5.4   -14.2    1026      51      38    0.00     546     526    
SAT 12Z 07-JAN  -5.3   -13.4    1027      49      80    0.00     549     528    
SAT 18Z 07-JAN  -4.9   -13.1    1021      69      96    0.15     546     529    
SUN 00Z 08-JAN  -5.2   -11.4    1017      78      97    0.28     537     524    
SUN 06Z 08-JAN  -6.4   -14.7    1018      65      91    0.06     527     513    
SUN 12Z 08-JAN  -9.6   -17.7    1021      76      30    0.00     523     506    
SUN 18Z 08-JAN  -5.8   -18.7    1022      43      93    0.00     517     501    

 

Where is this from?

[ice1972]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Crude look at mid level looks to crush BOS and maybe even slightly west of them and right down through PVD metro. Obviously someone is gonna clean up too near PYM on the cold side of the CF where the OES CJ is intersecting it and they are getting awesome synoptic forcing overhead too. 

But definite 3 hour death band potential further NW. 

Staying tonight and tomorrow night in Framingham with plans in Natick Saturday morning and then Boston Sunday morning.....couldn't have planned it better it seems.....no drunk posting tonight.....my strategy has worked.....lol

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Does that make it up here?

It's possible. I'd prob favor a bit SE. But really anyone from your area-ORH down through interior SE MA is susceptible to an excellent band. 

Wherever they might set up, they could last a bit since the upper level flow is pretty parallel to the band orientation. 

 

[CCHurricane]

1 minute ago, mimillman said:

Where is this from?

00z EURO Text Output

[mimillman]

1 minute ago, CCHurricane said:

00z EURO Text Output

What site are you using for this? Could you provide a link? Very helpful for a research project I'm working on.

Thanks.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's possible. I'd prob favor a bit SE. But really anyone from your area-ORH down through interior SE MA is susceptible to an excellent band. 

Wherever they might set up, they could last a bit since the upper level flow is pretty parallel to the band orientation. 

 

Still nervous about exhaust just nw of it, which may very well be me.

[weathafella]

16 minutes ago, ajisai said:

I'm ready to toss the hurricanes, tornadoes, and bayou flooding. Best memory I have is a White Christmas in 2004. It was only 1". 

And the next day BOS got 10" from the system.   86" that winter including James's favorite storm of all time in January.

[CCHurricane]

4 minutes ago, mimillman said:

What site are you using for this? Could you provide a link? Very helpful for a research project I'm working on.

Thanks.

Sent you a quick message. Best of luck on your project!

[weathafella]

39 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

i know

i was just saying your totals seemed a little high to me, like James 2'nd map.

Thou, here's hoping its not high

I honestly think this one is a pretty widespread crush job.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

I honestly think this one is a pretty widespread crush job.

The NW trend has even gotten a few inches back here. 

[blizzard24]

i think they expanded the warnings in the morning  for more areas

 

[OceanStWx]

NCAR ensemble says warning snow from LWM to ORH to IJD.

But barely an advisory to MHT for me.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

NCAR ensemble says warning snow from LWM to ORH to IJD.

Pretty good NW bump

[OceanStWx]

Just now, dryslot said:

Pretty good NW bump

It was cut off a little bit at 00z with yesterday's run, but you can definitely see how big a move it was NW.

[weathafella]

High resolution euro is more in line with the other guidance re qpf tonight.

[dryslot]

Looks like 2-3" for here out to hr 31 on the NCAR ensembles

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Looks lie 2-3" for here on the NCAR ensembles

Regardless, I'll probably have expand headlines just to match what BOX does tonight. They aren't making it easy to paint a pretty picture. 

We really don't like warnings up against nothing.

[dryslot]

9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Regardless, I'll probably have expand headlines just to match what BOX does tonight. They aren't making it easy to paint a pretty picture. 

There map looks way underdone in there NE and central zone

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

okx fell asleep drunk at the wheel. flakes to fly within 6hr in their zones. 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

There map looks underdone in there NE and central zone

I mean, I'm sure nobody is surprised, but their amounts are coming up.

I'm forecasting their forecast at this point, and I wouldn't be shocked if they put a warning up adjacent to ASH. If that's the case, I can't get away with no headline there because it will cause too many headaches coordinating with the state level people.

[snywx]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

okx fell asleep drunk at the wheel. flakes to fly within 6hr in their zones. 

They are riding the GFS hard for this one..

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

okx fell asleep drunk at the wheel. flakes to fly within 6hr in their zones. 

Isn't that pretty much a regular occurrence in that office? At least that's what i hear from some in there zones anyways

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, snywx said:

They are riding the GFS hard for this one..

Pretty sure that's not working out for them if that's the strategy. The Euro just out has warning criteria snow to JFK at least where there's not even an advisory. Assuming 15-1 ratios gets to high end advisory maybe even into Westchester County. Eastern LI probably has 12" in spots on that run.