dryslot Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, ajisai said: What does the extra unpredicted warmth mean for us? Sorry, layman here. Lol one downgrade only. Track is probably going to end up west of guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Talk filthy rotten to me, you weather-devil, you- This does have a 2015 feel to it. E MA/Eastport special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: James? Listed as 9. He may struggle with bl for the first half of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: This does have a 2015 feel to it. E MA/Eastport special. I'm waiting on the EURO to release my map....thinking about hedging nw and for the fences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 NCAR ensemble ticking in slowly, just getting to accumulating snowfall for SNE right now at 18 hours. I'll be curious to see what it shows. It flopped a bit on the last couple of events with mixing involved, so I'm not exactly sure what to do with it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: Listed as 9. He may struggle with bl for the first half of the event. i know i was just saying your totals seemed a little high to me, like James 2'nd map. Thou, here's hoping its not high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It's an additional sign that things are trending a little more NW than modeled. A baroclinic zone in the Carolinas being NW of models is likely good news for us later on. Hope it puts BOS in the bullseye so it could beat my life best: 8" while in Japan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 I think James is going to mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 We are getting clobbered north of Raleigh-Durham, specifically northern Granville County. From RAH, may impact yall: The main change from the previous forecast has been to slightly reduce snow/frozen totals roughly south of a line from Rockingham to Garner to Rocky Mount, where boundary layer (wet bulb) temperatures have and will continue to favor a longer duration tonight of mostly rain, mixed at times with sleet, and also where periods of sleet late tonight sleet will cut into frozen/snow totals even as the boundary layers cools to and below freezing. In what is expected to be the all or mostly snow area over the Nrn Piedmont, where the 00Z GSO RAOB sampled an extremely favorable snow profile, currently advertised "Most Likely" snow totals may be conservative given the wetter trend in recent NAM and RAP runs. The recent wetter solutions may indeed be on to something, given the aforementioned favorably juxtaposed QG and mesoscale forcing for ascent. An approximately 00Z sounding from the NCSU sounding club sampled an approximately 2 C warm nose at 800 mb; and both the recent NAM and RAP/HRRR runs suggest this warm nose may oscillate about Wake Co. through much of the night. This data suggest an even sharper gradient in frozen totals is likely to be directly over the Triangle, with just a few inches over srn Wake Co. and perhaps close to a foot (or more) across Durham and Granville Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 I'm not going to mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Euro is looking northwest of 12z through 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I'm not going to mix. James from out of nowhere! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I'm not going to mix. You will. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro is looking northwest of 12z through 12 hours. Given the raobs tonight, I'm pretty confident that it should stay that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 We're seeing a more stout western ridge too on the 00z guidance in addition to a deeper southern shortwave. So we have double positive trend going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 ...or, not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I'm not going to mix. Maybe for an hour or two if the more NW solutions come to fruition but who cares? 10" of cement would have better staying power than 18" of fluff and be just as impressive in its own way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, ajisai said: Hope it puts BOS in the bullseye so it could beat my life best: 8" while in Japan. 8" Lifetitme???? Welcome to HEAVEN then man hahahaha. Houston to Boston. Wow. And Hopefully Boston travels to Houston in a few weeks time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 If anyone is looking for EURO text output I can share those for a few minutes / locations. Will be posting HYA and BOS shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 7, 2017 Author Share Posted January 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I'm not going to mix. You definitely might. that doesn't mean you're not going to see a lot of snow though. Both can still happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Nice bump NW on the 0z Euro, Trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuildingScienceWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, CCHurricane said: If anyone is looking for EURO text output I can share those for a few minutes / locations. Will be posting HYA and BOS shortly. KHVN Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Not a big change from a qpf standpoint vs 12z (except up by Eastport) but I am more impressed aloft. This isn't the storm to be a qpf queen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Def less progressive at hr 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Much rater have the man snow then fluff bombs that sublimate in a day or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Not a big change from a qpf standpoint vs 12z (except up by Eastport) but I am more impressed aloft. This isn't the storm to be a qpf queen. Some similarities to the mid level magician event of Feb 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Not a big change from a qpf standpoint vs 12z (except up by Eastport) but I am more impressed aloft. This isn't the storm to be a qpf queen. I mean based on H7, the 12z should've pounded a nice area of snow from PVD to BOS. But all the QPF was over the Cape. So we definitely will nudge totals up to the NW of the best QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Wow, NCAR ensemble has warnings verifying by 22z across Plymouth, Barnstable, southern Bristol, and South Coast RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 The mid level track is where its at for this one, Folks NW are going to have some surprises if they just look at qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: I mean based on H7, the 12z should've pounded a nice area of snow from PVD to BOS. But all the QPF was over the Cape. So we definitely will nudge totals up to the NW of the best QPF. Euro seems to do this a lot in coastal systems. Places the best qpf where the lower level forcing seems to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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