OceanStWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Not sure if it was covered or not, you guys added 20+ pages while I was sleeping, but the shortwave was definitely deeper than modeled according to the 00z raobs. OUN had a height of 544 at H5, neither the GFS or Euro were that deep (and they might have been a hair fast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Not sure if it was covered or not, you guys added 20+ pages while I was sleeping, but the shortwave was definitely deeper than modeled according to the 00z raobs. OUN had a height of 544 at H5, neither the GFS or Euro were that deep (and they might have been a hair fast). flag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Not sure if it was covered or not, you guys added 20+ pages while I was sleeping, but the shortwave was definitely deeper than modeled according to the 00z raobs. OUN had a height of 544 at H5, neither the GFS or Euro were that deep (and they might have been a hair fast).Talk to us baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: flag Isn't this the point where Kev congratulates everyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Isn't this the point where Kev congratulates everyone? If he was awake, sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Isn't this the point where Kev congratulates everyone? Probably, Seeing he had all of us huffing cirrus bong hits for this one a day or two back, Are you short term or mid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Uncle really pushed decent snow further west this run-most of sne now and up to dendrite and about 1/3 inch to Jeff in LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Here's the GFS H7 forcing. Red line is f-gen axis, yellow is deformation. You'll find your best forcing on the cool side of the deformation (yellow) within the strongest f-gen (red). So to my eyes, that's looking pretty sweet around the canal area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Looking at the intellicast radar loop brings flashbacks to January 2000, I feel like it was close to this time of night when I kept thinking that thing was coming north.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Here's the GFS H7 forcing. Red line is f-gen axis, yellow is deformation. You'll find your best forcing on the cool side of the deformation (yellow) within the strongest f-gen (red). So to my eyes, that's looking pretty sweet around the canal area. Bob-Ginxy-James zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Here's the GFS H7 forcing. Red line is f-gen axis, yellow is deformation. You'll find your best forcing on the cool side of the deformation (yellow) within the strongest f-gen (red). So to my eyes, that's looking pretty sweet around the canal area. Do you have the same parameters for the other guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Do you have the same parameters for the other guidance? I think that area gets shifted west on the other guidance seeing the GFS was pretty far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Do you have the same parameters for the other guidance? Of course I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: I think that area gets shifted west on the other guidance seeing the GFS was pretty far east Exactly. The Euro had the deformation axis just about over ACK. F-gen axis isn't really changed much, maybe a hair NW. So the best banding signature shifts from the canal on the GFS to probably PVD to BOS on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: Of course I do. Waiting with baited breath...maybe even bad breath... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: Exactly. The Euro had the deformation axis just about over ACK. F-gen axis isn't really changed much, maybe a hair NW. So the best banding signature shifts from the canal on the GFS to probably PVD to BOS on the Euro. I'm declaring Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I'm declaring Euro. I'm not sure why my evening shift left before the 00z models started coming in, but looks like I have some work to do on our grids. We bump up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Looking at the qpf on the 0z Ukie, Its the western areas that bump up on qpf where the eastern areas stay about the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 My final call... by the way I think someone that gets stuck in those heavy bands for a while could get 18-24 enjoy the snow fellas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 7, 2017 Author Share Posted January 7, 2017 Some predictions.... folks can add more locations. TAN- 9" PVD- 7" BOS- 5" TOL- 4" ORH- 4" PYM- 14" Scooter- 16" James- 10" NYC- 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Some predictions.... folks can add more locations. TAN- 9" PVD- 7" BOS- 5" TOL- 4" ORH- 4" PYM- 14" Scooter- 16" James- 10" NYC- 1" There'll be more than 1" in NYC. Even the GFS which is furthest east of all guidance gives more than that. I'd probably say 3-4" there right now. BOS and ORH I'd also go higher for. Another west tick on most guidance and NYC could be pushing warning criteria, especially around JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Probably worth noting that the Carolinas are verifying warmer than modeled as well. CHS at +10 at H8, and no model was that warm. NAM and RGEM came close, but they both fail farther up the coast at MHX where it's +8 and no model was warmer than +6.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Some predictions.... folks can add more locations. TAN- 9"-------16" PVD- 7" ------10" BOS- 5"-------11" TOL- 4"--------7" ORH- 4"-------10" PYM- 14"-------17" Scooter- 16"------16" James- 10"--------9" NYC- 1"--------4" Mine are to the right of yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Probably worth noting that the Carolinas are verifying warmer than modeled as well. CHS at +10 at H8, and no model was that warm. NAM and RGEM came close, but they both fail farther up the coast at MHX where it's +8 and no model was warmer than +6.5. What does the extra unpredicted warmth mean for us? Sorry, layman here. 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Mine are to the right of yours. Lol one downgrade only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Some predictions.... folks can add more locations. TAN- 9" PVD- 7" BOS- 5" TOL- 4" ORH- 4" PYM- 14" Scooter- 16" James- 10" NYC- 1" Too low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, ajisai said: What does the extra unpredicted warmth mean for us? Sorry, layman here. Lol one downgrade only. It's an additional sign that things are trending a little more NW than modeled. A baroclinic zone in the Carolinas being NW of models is likely good news for us later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Probably worth noting that the Carolinas are verifying warmer than modeled as well. CHS at +10 at H8, and no model was that warm. NAM and RGEM came close, but they both fail farther up the coast at MHX where it's +8 and no model was warmer than +6.5. Talk filthy rotten to me, you weather-devil, you- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 7, 2017 Author Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, ajisai said: What does the extra unpredicted warmth mean for us? Sorry, layman here. Lol one downgrade only. I went lower on James because I think he is going to have a paste type snow... or even possible mix issues for a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Mine are to the right of yours. James? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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