BRSno Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 BOX made a slight update, BOS now 6"-8"' and a lot less 18"-24"s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The 12z models overall have been a little more bullish, so I'm sure they'll bring the higher amounts a bit west. Plus, the synoptics in general argue for good snows along the QPF gradient. Just seems like they hastily threw out that graphic to get the word out to the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, BRSno said: BOX made a slight update, BOS now 6"-8"' and a lot less 18"-24"s Better. Still think the max zone will be N up in PYM rather than HYA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 You guys really think 2-3 Hartford south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Euro with a sweet mid level look over much of the region. QPF Queens do not fret. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, db306 said: You guys really think 2-3 Hartford south? double it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Euro with a sweet mid level look over much of the region. QPF Queens do not fret. There's probably going to be a good south shore OES CJ too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: double it. Ya kinda seemed low when I saw that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Probably biggest snower since I've moved to BOS (Summer 2015). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Euro crushes the cape Over 12 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro with a sweet mid level look over much of the region. QPF Queens do not fret. Euro also with than nice 850mb convergence zone. We chuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Euro also with than nice 850mb convergence zone. We chuck. Yeah get some lift where temps are cold for snow growth at that level and voila. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There's probably going to be a good south shore OES CJ too. The hi res models show that. Anywhere from me to Norwell or so. With such a cold airmass and intensifying low...might be just SE of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 i wonder how they generate those snow charts. experience with this sort of thing is that you get higher totals closer to the absolute cut-off to nil. yet that product smears it out over some 80 mi of gradually diminishing totals. i suspect it's like 4-6" then down to 1" along a 10 mile wide axis along the nw arc - where that aligns, who knows. but these parallel bands that drop of so neatly and orderly doesn't seem to happen in these types of 'needle thread' scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 There's your 1.5 qpf and 20 inches of snow near the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 James in oxygen tent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Thinking James passed out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I'm good, 12-18" is a fine forecast, but I would go 18-24" if the 00z models come in better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, db306 said: Thinking James passed out Pretty epic streak for the Cape the last decade. Gonna be rough when they finally regress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Close to bomb status on the euro. 1007 to 986 in 24hrs. Drop of 21mbs. Close but no cigar. Nice storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 So, like PDII, is this the Ain't Happening James II? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I live the perfectly wrong distance from the ocean.....just far enough so that it never helps me, but just close enough for it to hurt me.Hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I mentioned this to Will last night ... when the 500 mb evolution of the 00z UKMET showed something similar (though back many naut miles SW). We speculated then that although the 00z UMKET looked really tasty as the trough was turning form neutral to slightly negatively tilted over the longitude of the Tennessee Valley, that the small 'blob' of vorticity it was depicting off the Carolina coasts might get exaggerated as the primary mechanical forcing for surface low development. Below is the 12z RGEM panels for hour 36. I have annotated it to help elucidate those concerns... I tend to like the RGEM model, but this depiction below really ... I hate to say but it smacks as though it is picking the wrong perturbation(s) in the atmosphere as it's impetus for its surface development. I could see one of two things happening here... One, sometimes the convection does "rob" and whisks things prematurely seaward, but often those are proven false in the guidance. That could correct a short (like < 24 hours to almost having to now-cast) the surface evolution farther west to where there is a truck load of better forcing associated with strong DPVA moving west of the perceived center. In simpled terms, the surface wave looks too far separated from the main jet dynamics; the reason, may be in part what's called convective feedback. The other thing that may happen is that the baroclinic axis really is way out there and this thing really is riding up that far west of the lower level boundary... That would cause a very vertically tilted sheared system, and you would see the W side of the activity expand (oblong) associated with IVT. I would also enter that if a solution like that above took place, you'd almost have to have some sort of Norlun expression while that mlv sucker roared through just SE of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I need qpf. Even more than qp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 So tip, the tl:dr version is...cfi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I mentioned this to Will last night ... when the 500 mb evolution of the 00z UKMET showed something similar (though back man naut miles SW). We speculated then that although the 00z UMKET looked really tasty as the trough was turning form neutral to slightly negatively tilted over the longitude of the Tennessee Valley, that the small 'blob' of vorticity it was depicting off the Carolina coasts might get exaggerated as the primary mechanical forcing for surface low development. Below is the 12z RGEM panels for hour 36. I have annotated it to help elucidate those concerns... I tend to like the RGEM model, but this depiction below really ... I hate to say but it smacks as though it is picking the wrong perturbation(s) in the atmosphere as it's impetus for its surface development. I could see one of two things happening here... One, sometimes the convection does "rob" and whisks things prematurely seaward, but often those are proven false in the guidance. That could correct a short (like < 24 hours to almost having to now-cast) the surface evolution farther west to where there is a truck load of better forcing associated with strong DPVA moving west of the perceived center. In simpled terms, the surface wave looks too far separated from the main jet dynamics; the reason, may be in part what's called convective feedback. The other thing that may happen is that the baroclinic axis really is way out there and this thing really is riding up that far west of the lower level boundary... That would cause a very vertically tilted sheared system, and you would see the W side of the activity expand (oblong) associated with IVT. I would also enter that if a solution like that above took place, you'd almost have to have some sort of Norlun expression while that mlv sucker roared through just SE of SNE. Well, the there has been evidence of an IVT, so perhaps the latter is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Please don't ever actually quote a tip post. It makes the thread unreadable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Well, the there has been evidence of an IVT, so perhaps the latter is correct Possibly ... Brian mentioned a couple days ago in some post .. how usually an IVT in a middle range turns out to either be closer to where the low turns out to be, or... it just doesn't verify too well. This is similar... perhaps. I've noticed that about middle range guidance tendencies as well...they tend to develop IVT as an artifact for having the wrong track for the low in the first place; model has all this dynamic forcing west of the low so it develops (mechanically) an IVT there instead. ...it's that sort of ordeal. But then as it comes into nearer term focus the model sans the east track and just develops it where it should have in the first place. Boom - west correction in near terms. Could happen here...not sure.. .But, there are valid reasons to question some of those tracks that are way out at sea like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Valid points John. I think this is a tilted system for sure..but these suckers coming out of the Gulf always throw Barry Zito curve balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 45 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Better. Still think the max zone will be N up in PYM rather than HYA. New Bedford jack possible too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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