Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Still IMO a good banding signal in ern areas aside from any CJ. The deep DGZ raises eyebrows too despite weaker omega. You still see the signal for meso bands NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Still IMO a good banding signal in ern areas aside from any CJ. The deep DGZ raises eyebrows too despite weaker omega. Right...but you have to wonder if mid levels can compensate for low level subsidence owed to strong low level banding in areas of oes assit. Granted, the exhaust is less pronounced when forcing is better; however the banding tends to set up in the areas that offer the least resistance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Today is a perfect example and tomorrow has better magic. Over performance provided your expectations are not 20-24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: You still see the signal for meso bands NW? Yeah to some extent, although tough to say how far west it gets regarding you to HFD. My guess is yes towards your area...as long as the models don't go east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Today is a perfect example and tomorrow has better magic. Over performance provided your expectations are not 20-24. JGW - Though someone's two day total may reach that lofty range in the favored spots. No one should expect that however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Through 24 the RGEM seems to be coming in a bit more amped and NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 That track and convection on the 12z rgem would really pump heights out ahead of it. Great sign for New England to see qpf out in west Virginia at hr 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 When you read this stuff all day long for multiple days it is like a tunnel. If we step out we realize that we have gone from a light event/near miss, decent storm for the Cape, to a moderate storm for 2/3 of SNE, a major storm for ESNE, and a humdinger for the Cape. Up here we may get 1-3 high ratio fluff. This has really developed nicely over a 2 day period AMOUT. Would love another bump but don't think that's gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 RGEM with the goods from Boston, SE to the cape.. should be warnings going up pretty soon probably Boston, SE, I'm not sure if NW are needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Boy RGEM was pretty weenie-ish I thought in SNE. Good signal I think near and east of ORH-HFD for some banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Can someone post RGEM totals? I'm on the phone and busy today. TYIA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Boy RGEM was pretty weenie-ish I thought in SNE. Good signal I think near and east of ORH-HFD for some banding. Yeah, looked good to me as well. Not as weenie-ish as the NAMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 That was a pretty good bump to the northwest on the 12z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Can someone post RGEM totals? I'm on the phone and busy today. TYIA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The one thing I have noticed recently with the Nam and now the new RGEM, is the redevelopment on the western side of the precip as it moves into NE. You can really see this when looking at the 700 level moisture, you can see it almost build westward once it hits this latitude. The meso models showed this too with the first wave this morning. Since I am on the western side of both the storms it makes a difference for me. With the new RGEM, 0.3 - 0.35 of qpf could get me 6" with ratios over here in far western CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: That was a pretty good bump to the northwest on the 12z RGEM maybe this isn't done trending. maybe 2-4 with lollies isn't out of the question for you and I if we can get those good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: That is a big jump. Hopefully the dry air does not come onto play on the western fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, EastonSN+ said: That is a big jump. Hopefully the dry air does not come onto play on the western fringe. I would feel more comfortable if we get one more bump west before game time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Thanks Bob! We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: maybe this isn't done trending. maybe 2-4 with lollies isn't out of the question for you and I if we can get those good ratios. Really don't expect much of anything here, Pretty far out on the western edge, We would need another bump like the 12z RGEM just had, That would be getting the cape close to having mixing issues if it was the case but would also mean it snows further to the west as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Rgem argues for warnings almost back to the river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: In a winter like this, I'm happy with it for MBY. Nice cold Saturday afternoon mood snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 GFS looking NW and stronger, playing catch up to other models as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Total QPF. Ratios will run a bit higher than normal with this. Thinking we start in the 12:1 area and head up from there as the storm gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 GFS NW too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Total QPF. Ratios will run a bit higher than normal with this. Thinking we start in the 12:1 area and head up from there as the storm gets going. is that the GFS or RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Yeah that's a nice bump NW on the GFS....RGEM/GFS going NW while the NAM went slightly E...NAM might have duped us for the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: is that the GFS or RGEM? RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that's a nice bump NW on the GFS....RGEM/GFS going NW while the NAM went slightly E...NAM might have duped us for the 12z runs. 12km run? The 4km and 3km had heaviest totals W of canal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 That's like a 300mb+ thick DGZ too. Ray's gas could rise and cause 20:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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