Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: Its in mm I never knew that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Well, maybe I'm in a good spot to catch this one...I've also been waiting for OES...haven't gotten any since I moved here last March. Pickles and I chased OES once...it didn't ever get heavy, we drove up and down route 3 and found the best band was near exit 5...that was before I lived in Plymouth so it was a long drive out and back...midnight to 3am adventure... The climo spot for OES is to your north usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Here is my first guess. MS Paint pride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Here is my first guess. MS Paint pride. Take em up and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Here is my first guess. MS Paint pride. Why only 4-8" on the Outer Cape, there is no mixing involved with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Thoughts on my preliminary map? Just for SNE weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: .75-1.0 qpf almost back to river! Hopefully you'll get good ratios with the 3/4 of a centimeter. 12 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Here is my first guess. MS Paint pride. I think you're a little high for GC. Seriously though, I think that looks good. An area that I think could still manage an inch or so are the coastal zones of NH and Maine. As an aside (this is not directed to you and your map but to maps in general), I like to see is 'blended maps' whereby there's actually overlap in the ranges. For example., instead of going 1-3 and the 3-5, having zones that are 1-3 and then 2-5. I think that reflects better what happens than the straight 'step' amounts and allows for better results come verification time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 14 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Thoughts on my preliminary map? Just for SNE weather. That IMO looks perfect..Ecxept I'd drop the 15-18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: But here's the sensitivity stuff. It's a little confusing because the GEFS variance showed a weaker/SE low so the higher heights in the shortwave would confirm that variance of weaker/SE. So we want lower heights in the shortwave to produce the opposite (stronger/NW) case. The EPS on the other hand had variance for a stronger/NW low, so you see lower heights again confirm that variance. The key is that shortwave needs to have lower heights than the ensembles were predicting to get this to continue the trend NW. I would urge the weenies to step away from the clown maps and instead compare the 12z balloons to the GEFS and EPS H5 heights at 12z. Is this publicly available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The GFS is on board with the NAM for about 12-15 to maybe 18" in the OES favored regions especially the Outer Cape Cod area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That IMO looks perfect I thought the same thing considering where we stand at the moment. nice job James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: Is this publicly available? I believe so. Give it a shot:http://breezy.somas.stonybrook.edu/CSTAR/Ensemble_Sensitivity/EnSense_Main.html The EPS is password protected, but otherwise it should work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That IMO looks perfect..Ecxept I'd drop the 15-18" That's really not a bad assessment. I would max it at 15" and most likely locally due to OES CJ, but I think 3" into S NH is a fair forecast at this point. I do have 3" at the MA border there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That IMO looks perfect..Ecxept I'd drop the 15-18" Thanks Kevin, I really think those upper amounts are reasonable for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I thought the same thing considering where we stand at the moment. nice job James. Thanks Winter Wolf, do you mind telling me your name in a private message? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 06z trends were a bit troubling. All 06z models looked like they trended east. Hopefully a 12z bump back west occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: That's really not a bad assessment. I would max it at 15" and most likely locally due to OES CJ, but I think 3" into S NH is a fair forecast at this point. I do have 3" at the MA border there. Thanks OceanStWx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 06z trends were a bit troubling. All 06z models looked like they trended east. Hopefully a 12z bump back west occurs. I think considering that the southern stream continues to be modeled stronger in the deep south, I think the models during the newly ingested upper level data will reveal a better environment for a massive storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: 06z trends were a bit troubling. All 06z models looked like they trended east. Hopefully a 12z bump back west occurs. We're nearly in nowcast territory. Hopefully I wake up to a robust southern streamer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I believe so. Give it a shot:http://breezy.somas.stonybrook.edu/CSTAR/Ensemble_Sensitivity/EnSense_Main.html The EPS is password protected, but otherwise it should work. Awesome thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: We're nearly in nowcast territory. Hopefully I wake up to a robust southern streamer. I'm hoping the 12z raobs find a more robust southern vort and we see the 12 suite come back a bit west. Still, even on the 06z depiction, the mid levels looked quite nice for a chunk of SNE....eastern 3rd for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I think considering that the southern stream continues to be modeled stronger in the deep south, I think the models during the newly ingested upper level data will reveal a better environment for a massive storm. What's making you think that? You're making a big assumption that the new data to be ingested is good data. It may be laden with trans-fats. Regardless, the changes are really going to matter what happens out to 495-ish/ORH not to you. You're well situated no matter where it goes. Edit: I just saw Will's post in which he states he HOPES with respect to the new data. I think that's the magic word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm hoping the 12z raobs find a more robust southern vort and we see the 12 suite come back a bit west. Still, even on the 06z depiction, the mid levels looked quite nice for a chunk of SNE....eastern 3rd for sure. Considering the 00z GFS and Euro matched the obs and matched each other, it is changes downstream that determine the eventual low pressure. And I really do this the GFS is producing some vorticity out of convective processes rather than maintaining the main shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 17 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That's really not a bad assessment. I would max it at 15" and most likely locally due to OES CJ, but I think 3" into S NH is a fair forecast at this point. I do have 3" at the MA border there. Yeah it's a good map..I'm just not sure potential is there for more than 15"..though we've seen Scooter there in S Weymouth get 2x that in these setups..so I guess never say never Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 It's killin 48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Take em up and west 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 06z trends were a bit troubling. All 06z models looked like they trended east. Hopefully a 12z bump back west occurs. It's killing Kev that there is not a watch posted for Tolland county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Cold Miser said: It's killin It's killing Kev that there is not a watch posted for Tolland county. I don't think a watch is warranted here. But high end advisory yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 15 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Awesome thanks. Although like usual the domain doesnt work for most of our forecast regions lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 someone with ocean enhancement will see 20 plus, let us not kid ourselves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: Although like usual the domain doesnt work for most of our forecast regions lol But we use the CMC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: It's killin It's killing Kev that there is not a watch posted for Tolland county. Take um up before you go go. Don't want you standing solo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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