USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 They are more in line with what I forecasted last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Euro is locked and loaded. We ride. There are some weird things with the soundings. Some weird pockets of subsidence and the VV fields at 700 are really noisy or convective-like. That looks weird to me. I sort of toss it. I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 You look at radar over the Mid Atlantic and then the model VV fields and it looks strange to me. You would think it was a stripe of heavier precip with such notable lift. It is, but smoother and a bit NW of where it shows the heavier 6hr QPF IMO. IOW, radar there has a better appearance then some guidance would suggest. Hopefully that translates to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 11:16 AM, CoastalWx said: You look at radar over the Mid Atlantic and then the model VV fields and it looks strange to me. You would think it was a stripe of heavier precip with such notable lift. It is, but smoother and a bit NW of where it shows the heavier 6hr QPF IMO. IOW, radar there has a better appearance then some guidance would suggest. Hopefully that translates to us. Expand I like that convection is more or less oriented N/S. Directs moisture more northward than eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 8:22 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: LOL say it three time and snap your feet.. Expand LOL--I was thinking the exact same thing when I read his post. On 1/7/2017 at 11:16 AM, CoastalWx said: You look at radar over the Mid Atlantic and then the model VV fields and it looks strange to me. You would think it was a stripe of heavier precip with such notable lift. It is, but smoother and a bit NW of where it shows the heavier 6hr QPF IMO. IOW, radar there has a better appearance then some guidance would suggest. Hopefully that translates to us. to NW Mass with a surprise win. Expand j/k. From this point on, I guess we'll be relying on obs upstream to see how things are playing out. Good luck in eastern MA, RI, SE CT. This one's yours. 12* at both KPIT and KPIT2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 This temp map makes a nice overlay to the snowfall maps. Low temps = little snow, warm temps, lots of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 11:17 AM, OceanStWx said: I like that convection is more or less oriented N/S. Directs moisture more northward than eastward. Expand Yeah definitely better moisture flux northward with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 11:25 AM, moneypitmike said: This temp map makes a nice overly to the snowfall maps. Low temps = little snow, warm temps, lots of snow. Expand That makes absolutley zero sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Winds NE at Frying Pan Shoals, and SSE at the South Hatteras buoy, so the low center will pass between those two. Not really a surprise, as it would have been a really big gust E if it hadn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Not an especially bullish forecast for GC: Snow likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. North wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Va Beach is sleet..they were supposed to be all snow. Telltale sign of farther NW move and Euro correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 11:28 AM, Damage In Tolland said: That makes absolutley zero sense Expand LOL--what do you mean? Can't you read numbers on the two maps? Are you thinking I'm saying there's a cause and effect? I'm not, I'm simply pointing out the gradations of the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 11:35 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Va Beach is sleet..they were supposed to be all snow. Telltale sign of farther NW move and Euro correct Expand Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 1h1 hour ago Definitely a bust over the Triangle and areas south and east of there I admit it. Everything about 50 miles NW of where I thought it would b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 its crazy cold and dry, a lot to overcome before things saturate...I got a bad feeling this is gonna turn into just an inch or two around here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 11:37 AM, moneypitmike said: LOL--what do you mean? Can't you read numbers on the two maps? Are you thinking I'm saying there's a cause and effect? I'm not, I'm simply pointing out the gradations of the two. Expand Stop stealing his snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 11:35 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Va Beach is sleet..they were supposed to be all snow. Telltale sign of farther NW move and Euro correct Expand Definitely keep an eye on the morning soundings from those areas. When you compare them to the models (either 12z initialization, 06z 6 hour forecast, etc) you'll be able to tell how far off they are from reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 nyc and philly radars don't look so great to me, kind of shredded towards philly the motion is def more ne than nne or n this changes later? I see just a little more of a nward motion in ne pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 11:49 AM, codfishsnowman said: nyc and philly radars don't look so great to me, kind of shredded towards philly the motion is def more ne than nne or n this changes later? I see just a little more of a nward motion in ne pa Expand I think this is how it was modeled--no reason to be alarmed or excited in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 9:31 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Crushjob incoming from about Waterbury to Springfield and east Expand Yeah, man, that fronto map Oceanwx posted last night was an eye opener. Happy hunting today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 12:03 PM, Hoth said: Yeah, man, that fronto map Oceanwx posted last night was an eye opener. Happy hunting today. Expand Showed up plain as day on those 700 fields Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 12:03 PM, Hoth said: Yeah, man, that fronto map Oceanwx posted last night was an eye opener. Happy hunting today. Expand umm...tick that west about 20 miles west, and we're all good, dews are really low right now, so we'll need some mental rates to get going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 7, 2017 Author Share Posted January 7, 2017 Some of the short range guidance backing off a bit recently here gives me some pause. Hopefully not a precursor of things to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Burbank just tweeted. Also I really need to find a way to change my display name now that I moved back to Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 12:05 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Showed up plain as day on those 700 fields Expand Yup. Major fluff factor today. Reminds me a touch of MLM of '15, just not as cold obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 12:11 PM, Hoth said: Yup. Major fluff factor today. Reminds me a touch of MLM of '15, just not as cold obviously. Expand One of those deals where .40 gives some places 10" Not man snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 12:11 PM, NYBriGuy said: Burbank just tweeted. Also I really need to find a way to change my display name now that I moved back to Boston. Expand Send a PM to Dendrite. He can help you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 12:18 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Send a PM to Dendrite. He can help you Expand Tried a while ago. He never wrote back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1006mb low southeast of Charleston, SC. Flurries started around 655am EST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 As psyched as I am with this turn of events, imagine if that phantom blocking had panned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Def some guidance tickling back east a little bit. Not that it will make a huge difference for the coast but it could for the interior. Seems like obs down south are northwest of what many thought....do we have some 12z RAOB comps, Chris? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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