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January 7th/8th Storm Discussion


TauntonBlizzard2013

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  On 1/7/2017 at 4:53 AM, OceanStWx said:
Not sure if it was covered or not, you guys added 20+ pages while I was sleeping, but the shortwave was definitely deeper than modeled according to the 00z raobs.

OUN had a height of 544 at H5, neither the GFS or Euro were that deep (and they might have been a hair fast).


Talk to us baby
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  On 1/7/2017 at 5:06 AM, OceanStWx said:

Here's the GFS H7 forcing. Red line is f-gen axis, yellow is deformation. You'll find your best forcing on the cool side of the deformation (yellow) within the strongest f-gen (red).

H7.png

So to my eyes, that's looking pretty sweet around the canal area.

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Do you have the same parameters for the other guidance?

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  On 1/7/2017 at 5:14 AM, dryslot said:

I think that area gets shifted west on the other guidance seeing the GFS was pretty far east

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Exactly. The Euro had the deformation axis just about over ACK. F-gen axis isn't really changed much, maybe a hair NW. So the best banding signature shifts from the canal on the GFS to probably PVD to BOS on the Euro.

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  On 1/7/2017 at 5:24 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Some predictions.... folks can add more locations.

TAN- 9"

PVD- 7" 

BOS- 5"

TOL- 4"

ORH- 4"

PYM- 14"

Scooter- 16"

James- 10"

NYC- 1"

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There'll be more than 1" in NYC. Even the GFS which is furthest east of all guidance gives more than that. I'd probably say 3-4" there right now. BOS and ORH I'd also go higher for. Another west tick on most guidance and NYC could be pushing warning criteria, especially around JFK. 

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  On 1/7/2017 at 5:30 AM, OceanStWx said:

Probably worth noting that the Carolinas are verifying warmer than modeled as well. CHS at +10 at H8, and no model was that warm. NAM and RGEM came close, but they both fail farther up the coast at MHX where it's +8 and no model was warmer than +6.5.

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What does the extra unpredicted warmth mean for us?  Sorry, layman here.

 

  On 1/7/2017 at 5:32 AM, weathafella said:

Mine are to the right of yours.

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Lol one downgrade only. :P

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  On 1/7/2017 at 5:30 AM, OceanStWx said:

Probably worth noting that the Carolinas are verifying warmer than modeled as well. CHS at +10 at H8, and no model was that warm. NAM and RGEM came close, but they both fail farther up the coast at MHX where it's +8 and no model was warmer than +6.5.

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Talk filthy rotten to me, you weather-devil, you-

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