BRSno Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 DT has gone off the deep end it seems with this storm, not sure if OT but.... http://www.styleweekly.com/richmond/cold-shoulder-forms-between-nikki-dee-ray-and-wxrisk-ahead-of-snowstorm/Content?oid=2388898 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Looks like the 21z RPM is gonna go wild again...maybe even more than 18z did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I can't believe there is no WWA here. I hope the evening crew sees the trends and puts one up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 NW trend continues down here too. WWA up for 1-3". National Guard being called in to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 9:40 PM, powderfreak said: You guys ever doubt you'll get slammed from a coastal storm these days? lol Expand These days? ... hmm, so so. I lived the 1980s though.. I moved from Michigan in 1984 and was struggling to hold my self up against the gale of stories over these so called Nor'easters.. only to watch storm after storm after storm ... nick the Cape or whiff out to sea. So relative to era I suppose... There were a couple of good ones though.. In 1986 the "SYZYGY storm", ... one in 1985 when I lived up on Rockport... I don't think there were any other big ones... The Cape got exceptionally lucky in 1987 with blizzards that were supposed to be back west by faded seaward like ...with 10 minutes left to disappoint doe-eye fledging Mets. Then the 1990s came and they were handing out coastals like coupons at Walmart ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 9:59 PM, mahk_webstah said: Take take West West West amp amp amp and it still doesn't look any better in New Hampshire. Waaaaaaa Expand kind of what we talked about last night. it can only get so far nw which it has. mid levels doing all the work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:40 PM, ORH_wxman said: Looks like the 21z RPM is gonna go wild again...maybe even more than 18z did. Expand Looks more wild to me than 18Z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Tip, is the surface pressures correct with the 1010mb low in the central GOM? If so this storm is stronger than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:43 PM, H2Otown_WX said: I can't believe there is no WWA here. I hope the evening crew sees the trends and puts one up. Expand I would bet money that if 00Z holds or comes west more...the WSWs (winter weather products) will all come very west across CT to cover the whole state except N. litchfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:50 PM, The 4 Seasons said: Looks more wild to me than 18Z so far Expand Yeah...its gone wild like Kevin at Funky Murphy's after 2 beers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Some believe the trough into the Great Lakes area is too positively tilted, actually the upper level low is digging SSEward now SEward, so we have that amplifying the upper level flow ahead of the upper level low and the southern stream is amplifying as well allowing the southern stream disturbance to race eastward before slowing down as it reaches a negative tilt near the TN Valley. This should allow 18"+ in localized regions across SE MA, including the Cape and Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:43 PM, H2Otown_WX said: I can't believe there is no WWA here. I hope the evening crew sees the trends and puts one up. Expand it's completely normal and protocol. these forecast philosophies are built upon many multiple cycle trends and different confidence intervals there in ..there's no way to enter in a couple quick turn around trend cycles and have it reflect in that process on a dime. It's completely within the standard of technology and method - trust us ... if this is all still trending at 00z ...06z ...by dawn, you'll see warnings celebratory all the way to Orange massachusetts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Leo and Hazey naked high fiving each other tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Will, can you post the snowfall map of the RPM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:55 PM, Typhoon Tip said: it's completely normal and protocol. these forecast philosophies are built upon many multiple cycle trends and different confidence intervals there in ..there's no way to enter in a couple quick turn around trend cycles and have it reflect in that process on a dime. It's completely within the standard of technology and method - trust us ... if this is all still trending at 00z ...06z ...by dawn, you'll see warnings celebratory all the way to Orange massachusetts... Expand Lol, I mean even before the 18z cycle I thought there was enough evidence to have an advisory here but maybe we are/were a little too close to the fringes. I didn't see the Euro so I'm not sure what that looked like. If it looked something like the 12z GFS then I can see why they didn't put up an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Precip shield looks to be angled more NNE or NE then ENE. I think this shows me that the flow is more amped than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:57 PM, H2Otown_WX said: Lol, I mean even before the 18z cycle I thought there was enough evidence to have an advisory here but maybe we are/were a little too close to the fringes. I didn't see the Euro so I'm not sure what that looked like. If it looked something like the 12z GFS then I can see why they didn't put up an advisory. Expand The EURO was much better than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:51 PM, The 4 Seasons said: I would bet money that if 00Z holds or comes west more...the WSWs (winter weather products) will all come very west across CT to cover the whole state except N. litchfield. Expand You think a warning all the way up here? Only if the 3 km NAM verified. But yeah, let's get another tick west at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:48 PM, Typhoon Tip said: These days? ... hmm, so so. I lived the 1980s though.. I moved from Michigan in 1984 and was struggling to hold my self up against the gale of stories over these so called Nor'easters.. only to watch storm after storm after storm ... nick the Cape or whiff out to sea. So relative to era I suppose... There were a couple of good ones though.. In 1986 the "SYZYGY storm", ... one in 1985 when I lived up on Rockport... I don't think there were any other big ones... The Cape got exceptionally lucky in 1987 with blizzards that were supposed to be back west by faded seaward like ...with 10 minutes left to disappoint doe-eye fledging Mets. Then the 1990s came and they were handing out coastals like coupons at Walmart ... Expand LMAO!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:21 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: Ugh. Stupid naming of storms to increase clicks James, where on the Cape do you think gets the most? Expand This. Here's the ZFP for GC Saturday Mostly cloudy. Cold with highs around 20. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy in the evening...then clearing. Lows around 8 above. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Hailers and potentially strong super cells are approaching the Florida coastline, especially north of Tampa Bay, Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The point and click forecast shows 14-22" of snow for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 11:00 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The point and click forecast shows 14-22" of snow for me. Expand CONGRATS, You have been waiting a long time, enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:50 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Tip, is the surface pressures correct with the 1010mb low in the central GOM? If so this storm is stronger than modeled. Expand James .. are you seriously asking me to confirm the barometric pressure over the open waters of the abyssal plain of the Gulf of Mexico ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:51 PM, The 4 Seasons said: I would bet money that if 00Z holds or comes west more...the WSWs (winter weather products) will all come very west across CT to cover the whole state except N. litchfield. Expand Don't forget to leave out Tolland ...but yeah - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 11:03 PM, Typhoon Tip said: James .. are you seriously asking me to confirm the barometric pressure over the open waters of the abyssal plain of the Gulf of Mexico ? Expand Just asking if you know how accurate the mesoanalysis is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 If you had to guess John. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Hoping it ticks a bit to the east again. Looks like now there talking about the possibility of ice pellets mixing in with the snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Honestly I wouldn't be too worried about trying to verify a couple millibar difference in the GOM. There's little to no data out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The disturbance looks extremely healthy on water vapor imagery over TX and OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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