Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 11:03 AM, CTValleySnowMan said: Its in mm Expand I never knew that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 11:04 AM, #NoPoles said: Well, maybe I'm in a good spot to catch this one...I've also been waiting for OES...haven't gotten any since I moved here last March. Pickles and I chased OES once...it didn't ever get heavy, we drove up and down route 3 and found the best band was near exit 5...that was before I lived in Plymouth so it was a long drive out and back...midnight to 3am adventure... Expand The climo spot for OES is to your north usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Here is my first guess. MS Paint pride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 11:16 AM, sbos_wx said: Here is my first guess. MS Paint pride. Expand Take em up and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 11:16 AM, sbos_wx said: Here is my first guess. MS Paint pride. Expand Why only 4-8" on the Outer Cape, there is no mixing involved with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Thoughts on my preliminary map? Just for SNE weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:54 AM, Damage In Tolland said: .75-1.0 qpf almost back to river! Expand Hopefully you'll get good ratios with the 3/4 of a centimeter. On 1/6/2017 at 11:16 AM, sbos_wx said: Here is my first guess. MS Paint pride. Expand I think you're a little high for GC. Seriously though, I think that looks good. An area that I think could still manage an inch or so are the coastal zones of NH and Maine. As an aside (this is not directed to you and your map but to maps in general), I like to see is 'blended maps' whereby there's actually overlap in the ranges. For example., instead of going 1-3 and the 3-5, having zones that are 1-3 and then 2-5. I think that reflects better what happens than the straight 'step' amounts and allows for better results come verification time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 11:31 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Thoughts on my preliminary map? Just for SNE weather. Expand That IMO looks perfect..Ecxept I'd drop the 15-18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:31 AM, OceanStWx said: But here's the sensitivity stuff. It's a little confusing because the GEFS variance showed a weaker/SE low so the higher heights in the shortwave would confirm that variance of weaker/SE. So we want lower heights in the shortwave to produce the opposite (stronger/NW) case. The EPS on the other hand had variance for a stronger/NW low, so you see lower heights again confirm that variance. The key is that shortwave needs to have lower heights than the ensembles were predicting to get this to continue the trend NW. I would urge the weenies to step away from the clown maps and instead compare the 12z balloons to the GEFS and EPS H5 heights at 12z. Expand Is this publicly available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The GFS is on board with the NAM for about 12-15 to maybe 18" in the OES favored regions especially the Outer Cape Cod area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 11:45 AM, Damage In Tolland said: That IMO looks perfect Expand I thought the same thing considering where we stand at the moment. nice job James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 11:47 AM, OSUmetstud said: Is this publicly available? Expand I believe so. Give it a shot:http://breezy.somas.stonybrook.edu/CSTAR/Ensemble_Sensitivity/EnSense_Main.html The EPS is password protected, but otherwise it should work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 11:45 AM, Damage In Tolland said: That IMO looks perfect..Ecxept I'd drop the 15-18" Expand That's really not a bad assessment. I would max it at 15" and most likely locally due to OES CJ, but I think 3" into S NH is a fair forecast at this point. I do have 3" at the MA border there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 11:45 AM, Damage In Tolland said: That IMO looks perfect..Ecxept I'd drop the 15-18" Expand Thanks Kevin, I really think those upper amounts are reasonable for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 11:48 AM, WinterWolf said: I thought the same thing considering where we stand at the moment. nice job James. Expand Thanks Winter Wolf, do you mind telling me your name in a private message? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 06z trends were a bit troubling. All 06z models looked like they trended east. Hopefully a 12z bump back west occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 11:51 AM, OceanStWx said: That's really not a bad assessment. I would max it at 15" and most likely locally due to OES CJ, but I think 3" into S NH is a fair forecast at this point. I do have 3" at the MA border there. Expand Thanks OceanStWx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 11:52 AM, ORH_wxman said: 06z trends were a bit troubling. All 06z models looked like they trended east. Hopefully a 12z bump back west occurs. Expand I think considering that the southern stream continues to be modeled stronger in the deep south, I think the models during the newly ingested upper level data will reveal a better environment for a massive storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 11:52 AM, ORH_wxman said: 06z trends were a bit troubling. All 06z models looked like they trended east. Hopefully a 12z bump back west occurs. Expand We're nearly in nowcast territory. Hopefully I wake up to a robust southern streamer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 11:49 AM, OceanStWx said: I believe so. Give it a shot:http://breezy.somas.stonybrook.edu/CSTAR/Ensemble_Sensitivity/EnSense_Main.html The EPS is password protected, but otherwise it should work. Expand Awesome thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 11:54 AM, OceanStWx said: We're nearly in nowcast territory. Hopefully I wake up to a robust southern streamer. Expand I'm hoping the 12z raobs find a more robust southern vort and we see the 12 suite come back a bit west. Still, even on the 06z depiction, the mid levels looked quite nice for a chunk of SNE....eastern 3rd for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 11:53 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I think considering that the southern stream continues to be modeled stronger in the deep south, I think the models during the newly ingested upper level data will reveal a better environment for a massive storm. Expand What's making you think that? You're making a big assumption that the new data to be ingested is good data. It may be laden with trans-fats. Regardless, the changes are really going to matter what happens out to 495-ish/ORH not to you. You're well situated no matter where it goes. Edit: I just saw Will's post in which he states he HOPES with respect to the new data. I think that's the magic word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 11:58 AM, ORH_wxman said: I'm hoping the 12z raobs find a more robust southern vort and we see the 12 suite come back a bit west. Still, even on the 06z depiction, the mid levels looked quite nice for a chunk of SNE....eastern 3rd for sure. Expand Considering the 00z GFS and Euro matched the obs and matched each other, it is changes downstream that determine the eventual low pressure. And I really do this the GFS is producing some vorticity out of convective processes rather than maintaining the main shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 11:51 AM, OceanStWx said: That's really not a bad assessment. I would max it at 15" and most likely locally due to OES CJ, but I think 3" into S NH is a fair forecast at this point. I do have 3" at the MA border there. Expand Yeah it's a good map..I'm just not sure potential is there for more than 15"..though we've seen Scooter there in S Weymouth get 2x that in these setups..so I guess never say never Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 It's killin On 1/6/2017 at 11:20 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Take em up and west Expand On 1/6/2017 at 11:52 AM, ORH_wxman said: 06z trends were a bit troubling. All 06z models looked like they trended east. Hopefully a 12z bump back west occurs. Expand It's killing Kev that there is not a watch posted for Tolland county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 12:10 PM, Cold Miser said: It's killin It's killing Kev that there is not a watch posted for Tolland county. Expand I don't think a watch is warranted here. But high end advisory yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 11:56 AM, OSUmetstud said: Awesome thanks. Expand Although like usual the domain doesnt work for most of our forecast regions lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 someone with ocean enhancement will see 20 plus, let us not kid ourselves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 12:12 PM, OSUmetstud said: Although like usual the domain doesnt work for most of our forecast regions lol Expand But we use the CMC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 12:10 PM, Cold Miser said: It's killin It's killing Kev that there is not a watch posted for Tolland county. Expand Take um up before you go go. Don't want you standing solo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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