TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The storm that won't die. Discuss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 So 3-5 at 1:10 ratios in ORH? Is this for real? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 7:25 PM, J Paul Gordon said: So 3-5 at 1:10 ratios in ORH? Is this for real? Expand Those are the SREFs...take with many grains of salt. It is certainly possible this ends up far enough west to give plowable snowfall into central regions of SNE if we get another tick at 00z like we did at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 There's two main things we'll want to look at...first, the southern stream energy ejecting out of the Rockies...If that trends stronger/sharper then it will help bring the storm west. The second factor is the PNA ridge. If that trend more amped, then the storm will have a little more room to come up the coast as it should cause the great lakes energy to dive a little more south rather than east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 7:28 PM, ORH_wxman said: There's two main things we'll want to look at...first, the southern stream energy ejecting out of the Rockies...If that trends stronger/sharper then it will help bring the storm west. The second factor is the PNA ridge. If that trend more amped, then the storm will have a little more room to come up the coast as it should cause the great lakes energy to dive a little more south rather than east. Expand Here's hopin'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I fully expect a bit of a shift back east (not like last night's location, but split the difference) in the Euro. A waffle here, a waffle there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 7:45 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: I fully expect a bit of a shift back east (not like last night's location, but split the difference) in the Euro. A waffle here, a waffle there Expand Why? Here a waffle, there a waffle, everywhere a waffle, waffle? Or, because there is a good reason to think so based on the other models? BTW... I'm bored so I'm being a bit facetious here. Why do you expect a shift east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 7:45 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: I fully expect a bit of a shift back east (not like last night's location, but split the difference) in the Euro. A waffle here, a waffle there Expand I don't know about that(normally I would agree on that) in this instance, due to the s/w's being better sampled now, this may be a legitimate shift NW due to that fact alone. Ofcourse I could be completely wrong too lol.?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Within the first 18 hours of the new NAM run, there is no stretching of southern stream energy like there was previous runs on the NAM. This time it is more consolidated and that will bode well for a continued shift northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The shortwave looks better coming off the pacific on the NAM's initialization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 7:59 PM, JC-CT said: The shortwave looks better coming off the pacific on the NAM's initialization. Expand I agree JC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 7:59 PM, JC-CT said: The shortwave looks better coming off the pacific on the NAM's initialization. Expand I expect another tic west after looking at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 7:53 PM, J Paul Gordon said: Why? Here a waffle, there a waffle, everywhere a waffle, waffle? Or, because there is a good reason to think so based on the other models? BTW... I'm bored so I'm being a bit facetious here. Why do you expect a shift east? Expand On 1/5/2017 at 7:56 PM, WinterWolf said: I don't know about that(normally I would agree on that) in this instance, due to the s/w's being better sampled now, this may be a legitimate shift NW due to that fact alone. Ofcourse I could be completely wrong too lol.?? Expand I think it is a bit too amped, but maybe the sampling is making this for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 8:02 PM, dryslot said: I expect another tic west after looking at H5 Expand Yeah, I don't know yet. Will have to watch it play out. It is further south too and is kind of hanging back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 8:06 PM, JC-CT said: Yeah, I don't know yet. Will have to watch it play out. It is further south too and is kind of hanging back. Expand I also take into acct its the NAM not in its range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The southern energy is definitely better looking this run, but the lakes energy isn't because of a slightly flatter PNA ridge. So we'll see which one wins out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Southern Stream is certainly more consolidate this run through 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The southern stream still looks good through 36 hours and so does the upper level flow ahead of it. GOM moisture is streaming NE or NNE ward up the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Snowing in DC at hour 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Looks like it is another tic NW on the 18z Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 we can skip frame by frame pbp of nam as if this is the euro pre jan 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The two forces are nearly offsetting eachother this run. The southern stream vort was clearly better but the PNA ridge (and subsequent lakes shortwave position) was worse, so it helps out the southern folks and for us, it's kind of a neutral trend....maybe slightly better overall as the improvement to the southern stream was a greater magnitude than the degradation of the other features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 8:26 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: we can skip frame by frame pbp of nam as if this is the euro pre jan 2015. Expand Your post was far less useful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 That wasn't a tic it was a movement, NAM looks like a better negative tilt on the southern stream shortwave and separation between the northern stream and the southern stream allowing heights to build ahead of the southern stream shortwave trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 8:27 PM, JC-CT said: Your post was far less useful Expand its a tick nw. done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 8:27 PM, ORH_wxman said: The two forces are nearly offsetting eachother this run. The southern stream vort was clearly better but the PNA ridge (and subsequent lakes shortwave position) was worse, so it helps out the southern folks and for us, it's kind of a neutral trend....maybe slightly better overall as the improvement to the southern stream was a greater magnitude than the degradation of the other features. Expand That's what I saw, not that I need to tell you. This could be a pretty substantial storm if the ridge was better, or it could still completely whiff with some bad last minute ticks flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The energy is certainly more put together this run then previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Congrats Cape Cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 8:29 PM, JC-CT said: That's what I saw, not that I need to tell you. This could be a pretty substantial storm if the ridge was better, or it could still completely whiff with some bad last minute ticks flatter. Expand Yep...the last frame at 54h, makes al ittle more west movement...so we got an overall positive trend this run, but it actually could have been a lot better had the PNA ridge held serve from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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