psv88 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, TwcMan said: There's always the German....lol German actually backed off quite a bit from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: My guess right now would be 1-2" in the city, less than 1" west and north, 2-4" for Nassau and western half of Suffolk and 4-7" eastern half of Suffolk (east of William Floyd Pkwy). 1-2" down I-95 in NJ, 2-4" east of there and 4" or more starting in coastal southern Monmouth and Ocean Counties. I'd really have to see another bump west to go higher than that. I think this is an excellent forecast. I am telling my friends in western suffolk to expect about 3", which would be terrific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, psv88 said: German actually backed off quite a bit from last night. Looks like all the models have a sharp cutoff between the city and inland areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Looks like all the models have a sharp cutoff between the city and inland areas from 2" to nothing isn't exactly a sharp cutoff.. 1-2" for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, snywx said: from 2" to nothing isn't exactly a sharp cutoff.. 1-2" for NYC He still thinks NYC has a chance of seeing 6" and I bet he would put the odds of getting over a foot well above zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: My guess right now would be 1-2" in the city, less than 1" west and north, 2-4" for Nassau and western half of Suffolk and 4-7" eastern half of Suffolk (east of William Floyd Pkwy). 1-2" down I-95 in NJ, 2-4" east of there and 4" or more starting in coastal southern Monmouth and Ocean Counties. I'd really have to see another bump west to go higher than that. Sounds pretty good... Those 5-7" amounts if they happen at all will prob be from Riverhead eastward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, psv88 said: German actually backed off quite a bit from last night. Yes. Thats what happens when Wave 1 is over. Now the model is only looking at wave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 This is a huge hit for SE Mass. This is the reason why Boston averages significantly more snow than New York. Longitude + latitude = snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, mikem81 said: Yes. Thats what happens when Wave 1 is over. Now the model is only looking at wave 2 It backed off for Wave 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: He still thinks NYC has a chance of seeing 6" and I bet he would put the odds of getting over a foot well above zero. Not anymore but many people thought that was possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Not anymore but many people thought that was possible Pattern recognition buddy. We all get sucked in by nice looking model runs, but the key is knowing when it's likely to correct back since the pattern either supports the solution or it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, mimillman said: This is a huge hit for SE Mass. This is the reason why Boston averages significantly more snow than New York. Longitude + latitude = snow It's part longitude there for this storm and part ocean effect for the Cape. The storm has slightly more time to develop for them as well. And just in general, progressive La Niña patterns are better for New England than for south of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 UKIE looks identical to 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, mikem81 said: UKIE looks identical to 0Z That's some good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Ukie is 0.30 LE from NYC east. Verbatim an advisory snowfall for the city proper. If the Euro follows suit, i think WWA may be in order for NYC to the suffolk border, and WSW on east from there. RGEM supports the UKIE btw, and the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, mimillman said: This is a huge hit for SE Mass. This is the reason why Boston averages significantly more snow than New York. Longitude + latitude = snow It's part longitude there for this storm and part ocean effect for the Cape. The storm has slightly more time to develop for them as well. And just in general, progressive La Niña patterns are better for New England than for south of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 13 hours ago, RU848789 said: Just curious if this is your call for the second system or you're just describing what the NAM output is. And if it's your call, how much of the call are you basing on the NAM vs. other observations and/or model output to date? 13 hours ago, PB GFI said: I like 6 from both waves at KNYC. Out on Orient point. This is .75 to an inch for him and I working off the premise of 15 to 1 . - 15 at 850 with deepening LP .The VVs look good and that lift and those mid levels support 15 to 1 I like the NAM and the RGEM here . I have ignored the GFS its just chasing convection off OBX Same error for 2 decades For those wondering what PB meant, I asked last night and he was talking 6-12" for NYC to Eastern LI from both storms, combined. Given that NYC only got 1" or so from storm 1, this prediction will likely be wrong. He didn't mean 6-12" from the 2nd system, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Ukie looks like a few inches even here in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 UKMET looks like a solid 4in+ for all of Long Island. NYC looks good for 2-3in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 15 minutes ago, F5TornadoF5 said: UKMET looks like a solid 4in+ for all of Long Island. NYC looks good for 2-3in here. UKIE ticked up totals a bit city east, and decreased them a bit city west, but just model noise at this point. There will be one heck of a gradient with this puppy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, psv88 said: UKIE ticked up totals a bit city east, and decreased them a bit city west, but just model noise at this point. There will be one heck of a gradient with this puppy. With the dry air around, absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: With the dry air around, absolutely. When is this event scheduled to start is it an evening storm or day storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, BlizzardNYC said: When is this event scheduled to start is it an evening storm or day storm Looks like mostly tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Euro looks a bit NW of 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Euro looks good for Long Island, rest is about 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Euro: Heading east from NYC .2" to .6 to eastern end of Long Island, 8-12" eastern Long Island is a good possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Euro snow totals at 15:1 ratios NYC 2-4 (NE jersey coast also) Western LI 3-5 central LI- 4-6 (South jersey also) eastsern Long Island 6-10 everyone else coating to 2" nothing north or west of rockland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 What about NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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