NJwx85 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Seems like a good call to me I don't understand how people could expect a surface low to make a hard left turn up the coast when you have zero blocking, disjointed jet streams and at best a neutrally tilted southern stream trough. I think certain posters think that the pattern is going to suddenly make a dramatic shift. For those that remember the miraculous Boxing Day miracle, the pattern supported a huge storm. It was a ticking time bomb for more than a week at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, snywx said: Looks like a good call. This has been a E LI storm since the beginning. Hopefully the orient dude can cash in on a warning event. I need to see a lot more things change before I even consider Eastern Long Island receiving warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: I need to see a lot more things change before I even consider Eastern Long Island receiving warning criteria. Every model has Eastern LI getting several inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 This is the furthest NW that the precip shield makes it on the 12z RGEM and I would caution anyone that most of what you see on the NW edge is likely extremely light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Every model has Eastern LI getting several inches Okay great, several inches could be 3 or 4. Warning criteria is 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 What are temps like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I'd like to hear what PB has to say about the current status considering he has been very confident of this storm. Have your thoughts changed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: I'd like to hear what PB has to say about the current status considering he has been very confident of this storm. Have your thoughts changed? Didn't he say 6-12" from NYC eastward? Bold prediction.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, mriceyman said: What are temps like? Plenty cold enough throughout the column, but that's to be expected when the surface low passes further offshore than some recent recurving hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 GFS shifted more northwest with some snow in our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 GFS is farther north and stronger through 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GFS is farther north and stronger through 24hrs. Looks 50 miles north of 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 heights slighty amped..helped a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, snywx said: Didn't he say 6-12" from NYC eastward? Bold prediction.. Well that was insane. If he worked for the NWS and called for that, he'd have been laughed out of the room. The only place I'd feel comfortable with that is SE Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 17 minutes ago, snywx said: Didn't he say 6-12" from NYC eastward? Bold prediction.. Actually it was I-95 DC to Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Some minor improvements at H5 on the 12z GFS with the trough going negative tilt quicker. Problem this run is that the Northern stream lags behind even further, so essentially it's acting as a kicker. Just about nothing except for the far East end, and even there, less than a half inch LE even on the forks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1-2 inches might be a good bet for the NYC area with more to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Road trip to Elizabeth City? Locked and loaded for 10-14+" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Based on a combination of the current synoptic pattern, forecast teleconnection indices, and historic climatology, I believe the RGEM probably offers the best insight at present into likely snowfall amounts in and around NYC. This morning, I took a look at the 43 cases that saw Norfolk pick up 6" or more snow, including the 18 that saw Norfolk receive 8" or more snow. Of the larger set, 63% saw no measurable snow fall in NYC, 70% saw the City pick up less than one inch, while 79% saw the City receive less than 4". The respective percentages for the subset of larger storms was 67%, 83%, and 89%. So, my thinking at present is that NYC will probably pick up 1"-2" of snow, its northwest suburbs (25 miles or more outside the City) will receive an inch or less. Nassau County will probably pick up 2"-4". Suffolk County will likely see 3"-6" with a few widely scattered 8" amounts possible. The Central and southern Jersey Shore will also likely see 2"-4" amounts (Central) and 3"-6" amounts (Southern). The 12z RGEM is below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 39 minutes ago, snywx said: Didn't he say 6-12" from NYC eastward? Bold prediction.. 6-12 from DC to Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Some minor improvements at H5 on the 12z GFS with the trough going negative tilt quicker. Problem this run is that the Northern stream lags behind even further, so essentially it's acting as a kicker. Just about nothing except for the far East end, and even there, less than a half inch LE even on the forks. Same old nonsense from you. GFS shows 0.25 LE IMBY, with ratios that is good for 3-4" of snow, which is not "nothing". 0.10 bisects NYC, which with ratios is 1-2". Jersey shore is 0.10 to 0.30, or 1-5" with ratios. Just because you arent going to see any snow doesnt mean your analysis has to be terrible. Step up your game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: 6-12 from DC to Boston. lol.. That was pure craziness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, psv88 said: Same old nonsense from you. GFS shows 0.25 LE IMBY, with ratios that is good for 3-4" of snow, which is not "nothing". 0.10 bisects NYC, which with ratios is 1-2". Jersey shore is 0.10 to 0.30, or 1-5" with ratios. Just because you arent going to see any snow doesnt mean your analysis has to be terrible. Step up your game. Where are you getting those types of ratios from? Look at where all the good mid-level forcing is, well OTS Forecasting requires more than just looking at pretty colors on a weenie snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 CMC bumped west a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 12z CMC also shifted west. Looks like the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Where are you getting those types of ratios from? Look at where all the good mid-level forcing is, well OTS Forecasting requires more than just looking at pretty colors on a weenie snowfall map. Let's say you are right, and we are at 10:1 ratios, which we are not (i think we can agree based on thermal profiles), i would still get 2.5". That is not nothing sir. The Jersey Shore also sees similar amounts (assuming 10:1) ratios. How about this, post a SINGLE model showing zero for anyone other than the extreme east end. go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, psv88 said: Let's say you are right, and we are at 10:1 ratios, which we are not (i think we can agree based on thermal profiles), i would still get 2.5". That is not nothing sir. The Jersey Shore also sees similar amounts. Thermal profiles are only one piece of the puzzle in determining snow ratios. Secondly, I'm on board with a few inches of snow for Eastern Long Island. I am not on board with a major storm for anyone in this sub-forum, including Eastern Long Island, and I've given numerous reasons supported by science to backup my statements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 And at 13:1 to ratios, 0.25 is .33", or 3.3" of snow. Right in line with my 3-4". 13:1 is probably on the low end as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 My guess right now would be 1-2" in the city, less than 1" west and north, 2-4" for Nassau and western half of Suffolk and 4-7" eastern half of Suffolk (east of William Floyd Pkwy). 1-2" down I-95 in NJ, 2-4" east of there and 4" or more starting in coastal southern Monmouth and Ocean Counties. I'd really have to see another bump west to go higher than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 There's always the German....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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