jm1220 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: This should not be a surprise to anyone. The NAM and SREF were on the extreme western edge of guidance. They are traditionally over-amped and we know this. They should only be used when they are on the eastern edge of guidance as a signal that other models are too amped with their solutions as well. Also, the GFS was horrendous with last week's New England event and 168 hours ago, this was modeled as a DC to Boston MECS. It is also not great, but better than the NAM at least. If the 12z suite trends east too, I wouldn't count on anything more than flurries outside of the east end. Sometimes models over trend west/north, and the disturbance is still mostly sheared out and being kicked out by the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Yep, everything is east. Most likely dry in the metro region this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 hours ago, nzucker said: I didn't even make an inch tonight. You won't get 5" out of Wave 1, it's dying out fast on radar. I just woke up from sleeping a couple hours, and was like, "Where's the storm? Gone already?" If this favorable period only results in a couple 1-3" BS events followed by rain and warmth, count me out on this winter. The unfortunate thing is that we're headed into a warm pattern after Monday so this might be it for a while. Never said we'd make 5" - said we might get to 3" and we got 2.75", which is pretty close. We were certainly in the sweet spot last night, which was nice for a change, lol. Storm definitely underperformed for the Jersey Shore and NYC immediate metro, but was well forecast for most of the rest of NJ and SE PA, as far as I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 What were people expecting with such a progressive pattern? I said it yesterday and I'll say it again. Today's system is pulling the barolclinic zone too far East and not enough wave spacing exists to recover in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Hi res Nam ( 4k and 3k ) is coming in much better than the regular Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Hi res Nam ( 4k and 3k ) is coming in much better than the regular Nam I'll pay attention to the GFS and especially Euro. We need those to start trending west at this stage and delivering for NYC, or I think it's mostly a goner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Hi res Nam ( 4k and 3k ) is coming in much better than the regular Nam They just look pretty on picture but dont actually give much precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Never said we'd make 5" - said we might get to 3" and we got 2.75", which is pretty close. We were certainly in the sweet spot last night, which was nice for a change, lol. Storm definitely underperformed for the Jersey Shore and NYC immediate metro, but was well forecast for most of the rest of NJ and SE PA, as far as I can tell. It was generally coating to locally around 3", which was the model consensus for a few days outside of some wacky NAM runs. I was shafted-I saw a half inch maybe. I split between the bands that went over you and eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 hi res 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Hi res Nam ( 4k and 3k ) is coming in much better than the regular Nam Anthony, The Pattern doesn't support a big storm close to the coast. Just look at what's going on at 500mb. You can easily see here that the two streams are disjointed, with the Northern stream lagging enough behind to help kick everything East instead of completely phasing in. If we had some blocking to work with, things could have been different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It was generally coating to locally around 3", which was the model consensus for a few days outside of some wacky NAM runs. I was shafted-I saw a half inch maybe. I split between the bands that went over you and eastern LI. I'd like to know how wave one overpreformed in the NYC metro! This shows how people view the world through their own perspective. Allot of modelology going on in regards to wave two. Anyone officially jumping ship with 24 hours still to go is living and dying by each model run. Storms still on the table for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I don't post much on model runs but am a lurker. I'll admit that east trends are not what we want to see but I have seen this play out in either direction numerous times even a day before an event takes place. Odds are not in our favor but they certainly are not 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I'd like to know how wave one overpreformed in the NYC metro! This shows how people view the world through their own perspective. Allot of modelology going on in regards to wave two. Anyone officially jumping ship with 24 hours still to go is living and dying by each model run. Storms still on the table for sure "If the glove doesn't fit, you must acquit." If the pattern doesn't support a big storm close to the coast, then odds are it's not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 17 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I'll pay attention to the GFS and especially Euro. We need those to start trending west at this stage and delivering for NYC, or I think it's mostly a goner. It would be nice to see them jump on board, especially the GFS Right now, the spots to be are in eastern LI and Cape Cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Anthony, The Pattern doesn't support a big storm close to the coast. Just look at what's going on at 500mb. You can easily see here that the two streams are disjointed, with the Northern stream lagging enough behind to help kick everything East instead of completely phasing in. If we had some blocking to work with, things could have been different. That's the problem No blocking Now if we had some, this would have hugged the coast more than what the models are showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: "If the glove doesn't fit, you must acquit." If the pattern doesn't support a big storm close to the coast, then odds are it's not happening. maybe you should alert the NWS then? they seem to think the pattern supports snow at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnowBlitzkrieg said: maybe you should alert the NWS then? they seem to think the pattern supports snow at the coast. That's not what the NWS is forecasting. This is what could happen if the models do make a last minute trend west. It's their worst case scenario outcome. What they're forecasting is the most likely map (which I also think they'll cut back if 12z continues the 6z trend). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 right, but coming in here and saying the pattern doesn't support snow at the coast when the NWS has a map out like that is just plain wrong information. unless he thinks he's smarter than the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 My call right now would be Nada for anyone N+W of 84 coating to 1" for LHV (south of 84 to NYC) 1-3" in and around NYC/immediate burbs 2-4" to central Long Island 3-5" eastern Long Island 2-4 central coastal jersey 3-6 south jersey coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The other end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 RGEM looks a bit west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 27 minutes ago, SnowBlitzkrieg said: maybe you should alert the NWS then? they seem to think the pattern supports snow at the coast. That's the maximum. This is the most likely. Secondly, the Eastern end of LI does have the greatest chance of seeing a warning level event, but that's not where the poster I was responding to lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: RGEM looks a bit west I keep saying, don't pay attention to the surface, the air is extremely dry aloft, your gonna need decent rates to have anything but virga falling... this is Long Island and coastal NE storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: That's the maximum. This is the most likely. Secondly, the Eastern end of LI does have the greatest chance of seeing a warning level event, but that's not where the poster I was responding to lives. This map is from December 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 RGEM is better than the 6z run. The snow shield gets to about west of NYC with moderate snow in NYC with heavy snow in central to eastern LI and then eastern SNE. 2-3 inches for NYC with more towards central to eastern LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 23 minutes ago, SnowBlitzkrieg said: right, but coming in here and saying the pattern doesn't support snow at the coast when the NWS has a map out like that is just plain wrong information. unless he thinks he's smarter than the NWS. The pattern doesn't support a big snow storm for 99% of the posters in this forum. I realize that you live out in Suffolk County, which happens to have the greatest chance of seeing something significant, but that's still not a lock, and you could easily end up with what you saw today or less. I've given sound scientific reasoning as to why the pattern doesn't support more than a chance at a whiff as the surface low tracks hundreds of miles offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: This map is from December 15 I had to upload the link, go back and look again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: RGEM is better than the 6z run. The snow shield gets to about west of NYC with moderate snow in NYC with heavy snow in central to eastern LI and then eastern SNE. 2-3 inches for NYC with more towards central to eastern LI Let's see what the UKIE and GFS do heading into EURO time. Looks like NAM was same LP and track with worse precip yield. RGEM looks like better track with a 998LP about 100 miles east of the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I had to upload the link, go back and look again. Seems like a good call to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: That's the maximum. This is the most likely. Secondly, the Eastern end of LI does have the greatest chance of seeing a warning level event, but that's not where the poster I was responding to lives. Looks like a good call. This has been a E LI storm since the beginning. Hopefully the orient dude can cash in on a warning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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