nzucker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, nzucker said: Euro? Looks NW of 12z. Came in more amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Euro came NW. Looks like the UKMET but a hint farther west. 994mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: Euro came NW. Looks like the UKMET but a hint farther north. 994mb. The Ukie was great and you are saying the Euro s even better??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, nyblizz44 said: The Ukie was great and you are saying the Euro s even better??? I think he meant the position of the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Rjay said: Subtract the first image from the second to get total QPF of wave 2 Accounting for high ratios that looks like a solid 3-5 in Queens, double that on ELI and 1-3 in the city...Are we looking at another 75 mile shift NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, dmillz25 said: I think he meant the position of the low Gotcha, thats all we care about this stage, will leave sepecifics to tomorrow night. Let structure improve and the slightly positive PNA do its magic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said: The Ukie was great and you are saying the Euro s even better??? Nah I don't have access to precip totals. Just 850 mb temps and LP position. So yeah, I was just saying that the LP position was like the UKMET, if not, a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: Nah I don't have access to precip totals. Just 850 mb temps and LP position. So yeah, I was just saying that the LP position was like the UKMET, if not, a little better. It sounds as if the EC is a little drier than the UKMET. Euro has about .15" QPF whereas UKMET is 0.3"-0.4". It's a little early to resolve those mesoscale differences. Still would like to see if this can back into the coast a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, nzucker said: It sounds as if the EC is a little drier than the UKMET. Euro has about .15" QPF whereas UKMET is 0.3"-0.4". It's a little early to resolve those mesoscale differences. Still would like to see if this can back into the coast a little more. Yeah. ORH in the NE forum said that mid-levels were excellent. If so, then precip will sort itself out. By tomorrow night, mesoscale models will be the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Sounds like all the models except the GFS are now at least showing a couple of inches for the Philly-NYC corridor and more for the NJ coast and LI. That's quite a shift from earlier model suites and we're now closer to the event, so the uncertainty is decreasing. Gotta like this. Is PB awake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Sounds like all the models except the GFS are now at least showing a couple of inches for the Philly-NYC corridor and more for the NJ coast and LI. That's quite a shift from earlier model suites and we're now closer to the event, so the uncertainty is decreasing. Gotta like this. Is PB awake? ECM only has like .15" QPF here. People will be rather disappointed if all we get out of this "favorable" period is a couple 1-3" events that melt out with the cutter Wednesday, followed by torch. We really need to see another move west to make this a significant event. It's not impossible, but I wouldn't spike the football yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 31 minutes ago, nzucker said: ECM only has like .15" QPF here. People will be rather disappointed if all we get out of this "favorable" period is a couple 1-3" events that melt out with the cutter Wednesday, followed by torch. We really need to see another move west to make this a significant event. It's not impossible, but I wouldn't spike the football yet. I'd be ecstatic with a couple of 2-3" events; have 2" already tonight and could get 3" and another 2-3" would be awesome for Saturday. And any snow will be around until at least mid-next week, which is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 hours ago, Snow88 said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, Rjay said: looks like a bit of a SE shift. About 20-30 miles maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: looks like a bit of a SE shift. About 20-30 miles maybe Was just about to post the same thing, probably just noise (hopefully). Have to see what today brings but an interesting day of model watching ahead for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: I'd be ecstatic with a couple of 2-3" events; have 2" already tonight and could get 3" and another 2-3" would be awesome for Saturday. And any snow will be around until at least mid-next week, which is nice. I didn't even make an inch tonight. You won't get 5" out of Wave 1, it's dying out fast on radar. I just woke up from sleeping a couple hours, and was like, "Where's the storm? Gone already?" If this favorable period only results in a couple 1-3" BS events followed by rain and warmth, count me out on this winter. The unfortunate thing is that we're headed into a warm pattern after Monday so this might be it for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6z NAM shifted east a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, dmillz25 said: 6z NAM shifted east a bit. Yeah it's definitely east... looks weaker too. Hopefully this isn't the start of a trend back in the other direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah it's definitely east... looks weaker too. Hopefully this isn't the start of a trend back in the other direction That would suck we'll see by later on today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Could be just noise, fluctuations are normal. Have to see what the 12z runs bring but no one in the NYC metro should be expecting much more then a few inches of snow at this point with the exception of Long Island. Hoping the 12z runs continue the theme of further north and west to put the rest of the NYC metro into a more substantial snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 hour ago, dmillz25 said: 6z NAM shifted east a bit. 6 z gfs went east. Almost time to ride your bikes out to the piers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 But this should bring close to an inch of liquid to NYC? Just like the 4-6" of 15-1 the jersey shore was going to get overnight? SMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 And the NAM says no no no. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I'll watch the trends at 12z but the NYC area really needs the NW trend to continue to the end to be hopeful for more than a few inches. Blue wave pointed out the dry air on the west side of the precip shield, maybe that's a reason for the precip output being paltry. If the models are really edging east again, then there might be little near the city and it becomes a few inches on the east end and more than that only on the Cape. It'll suck if all we have to show for this pattern is a couple of coating to 2" events, but luck sometimes falls the wrong way too. This system is just very strung out and the northern stream isn't cooperating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Ensemble member 28 seems to have the most amped solution precip-field wise. Most of them show a few inches for my neck of the woods. Member 28 also is only one of two members who have the long range SWFE? at 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 9z SREF shifted more east Not good at all Looks like the models might be trending towards the GFS GFS has been doing very well lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Nam goes east again... blizzard for the cape barely a flake for any east of Long Island ugly nam run, even jersey misses out on anything meaningful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 19 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 9z SREF shifted more east Not good at all Looks like the models might be trending towards the GFS GFS has been doing very well lately This should not be a surprise to anyone. The NAM and SREF were on the extreme western edge of guidance. They are traditionally over-amped and we know this. They should only be used when they are on the eastern edge of guidance as a signal that other models are too amped with their solutions as well. Also, the GFS was horrendous with last week's New England event and 168 hours ago, this was modeled as a DC to Boston MECS. It is also not great, but better than the NAM at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 19 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 9z SREF shifted more east Not good at all Looks like the models might be trending towards the GFS GFS has been doing very well lately ..if thats right,i guess my 'winter storm watch' will not turn into a 'winter storm warning'..E trends no bieno.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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