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Wave 2, 1/7-8/17 Discussion/OBS


Rjay

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Just a quick thanks to some of the comments today .

 

I am glad this forecast worked out from the close to 6 at NYC to the 6 to 12  accross Long Island .

The center found the arctic boundary and the 50 miles east it found itself off OBX is about the same it will find itself near the BM

 

The ratio idea worked and thats where the 6 to 12 was derived from.

I will bet a few here did better than the 15 to 1 that was assumed.

 

Its another -EPO derived snowstorm inside an overall hostile background state

 

There may be an MLK weekend threat for the area  as HP is going to show up in E Canada as LP will eject out of the panhandle .

So right in the middle of several AN days there is something that needs to be watched .

 

Closing in on 9 inches in Colts Neck as the back edge swings through .

 

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1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

He's a quality contributor. It is nice when history is made.

He is and can be funny at times too when angry, he's made some classic put downs. My own unscientific view? We overperformed this storm, we appreciate it because we didn't expect much, and maybe, just maybe, despite the pattern, it just wants to snow here this year. It is still snowing here in Colonia but I'm guessing I'm going with RU's measurements in nearby Metuchen of about 5.75. 

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3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

He's a quality contributor. It is nice when history is made.

Hopefully, he keeps on posting. We all know that this can be a tough "room" to play from time to time.

This new snowier era if the 2000's keeps pushing the boundaries of what the old teleconnections used to be able to produce.

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13 minutes ago, hooralph said:

We spent five minutes deciding between Central Park and Riverside. I love getting lost in the NW part of Central Park when it's snowing heavily. You can feel like you are in Vermont. But Riverside sledding is great.

Careful in the NW woods. I got jumped last spring when I was taking a hike during lunch from work. I'm a very big strong guy so a tossed the guy who tried to choke me from behind and the other three ran away. Aparently it's a big problem there according to the police. 

Great storm in the city and it really caught people off guard. If this were the mountains tomorrow would be a great powder day

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2 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

Just a quick thanks to some of the comments today .

 

I am glad this forecast worked out from the close to 6 at NYC to the 6 to 12  accross Long Island .

The center found the arctic boundary and the 50 miles east it found itself off OBX is about the same it will find itself near the BM

 

The ratio idea worked and thats where the 6 to 12 was derived from.

I will bet a few here did better than the 15 to 1 that was assumed.

 

Its another -EPO derived snowstorm inside an overall hostile background state

 

There may be an MLK weekend threat for the area  as HP is going to show up in E Canada as LP will eject out of the panhandle .

So right in the middle of several AN days there is something that needs to be watched .

 

Closing in on 9 inches in Colts Neck as the back edge swings through .

 

Welcome back man, great call - don't let the haters get you down 

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Probably a bit more since the 4pm measurement.

 


0400 PM     SNOW             CENTRAL PARK            40.80N  73.96W
01/07/2017  M4.3 INCH        NEW YORK           NY   PARK SERVICE

            PARK CONSERVANCY

we had some of out heaviest snow during the 4:00pm hour .. i'm positive central park will be over 6 inches...

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Hopefully, he keeps on posting. We all know that this can be a tough "room" to play from time to time.

This new snowier era if the 2000's keeps pushing the boundaries of what the old teleconnections used to be able to produce.

It truly is a unique period, lucky for us!  Many over performing storms, patterns going back 17 years now.

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4 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

Just a quick thanks to some of the comments today .

 

I am glad this forecast worked out from the close to 6 at NYC to the 6 to 12  accross Long Island .

The center found the arctic boundary and the 50 miles east it found itself off OBX is about the same it will find itself near the BM

 

The ratio idea worked and thats where the 6 to 12 was derived from.

I will bet a few here did better than the 15 to 1 that was assumed.

 

Its another -EPO derived snowstorm inside an overall hostile background state

 

There may be an MLK weekend threat for the area  as HP is going to show up in E Canada as LP will eject out of the panhandle .

So right in the middle of several AN days there is something that needs to be watched .

 

Closing in on 9 inches in Colts Neck as the back edge swings through .

 

 

Good call man. Always enjoy reading your thoughts. As well as Don, Bluewave, Isotherm and others.

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3 minutes ago, danstorm said:

Welcome back man, great call - don't let the haters get you down 

 

I owe you an apology brother , I was short with you the other day and I got your point after .

 

Couldn't amend in time 

 

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18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It's a damn shame Socks(Zucker) drove him away 

He is here.

And he still has to verify below normal temperatures from Jan 5-20 as well as above normal snowfall for the month. I got like 4" today and less than an inch the other night, so it wasn't exactly a blockbuster.

The idea that this would trend west was a good one, but it wasn't quite enough for the widespread MECS. Still a gutsy call though that worked out so I commend PB for that.

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4 minutes ago, nzucker said:

He is here.

And he still has to verify below normal temperatures from Jan 5-20 as well as above normal snowfall for the month. I got like 4" today and less than an inch the other night, so it wasn't exactly a blockbuster.

The idea that this would trend west was a good one, but it wasn't quite enough for the widespread MECS. Still a gutsy call though that worked out so I commend PB for that.

Thanks and hopefully he accepts your apology.

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20 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

Just a quick thanks to some of the comments today .

 

I am glad this forecast worked out from the close to 6 at NYC to the 6 to 12  accross Long Island .

The center found the arctic boundary and the 50 miles east it found itself off OBX is about the same it will find itself near the BM

 

The ratio idea worked and thats where the 6 to 12 was derived from.

I will bet a few here did better than the 15 to 1 that was assumed.

 

Its another -EPO derived snowstorm inside an overall hostile background state

 

There may be an MLK weekend threat for the area  as HP is going to show up in E Canada as LP will eject out of the panhandle .

So right in the middle of several AN days there is something that needs to be watched .

 

Closing in on 9 inches in Colts Neck as the back edge swings through .

 

Come over and trade gas with me ;)

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