wthrmn654 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Upton seems to see this happening per there update at 550.... . As usual, there is uncertainty as to how far north the system will reach. 12Z runs have generally trended farther north, with ensembles suggesting a mean of around 2- 5 inches primarily for eastern Long Island and Connecticut, mainly for Saturday and ending overnight. However, the model spread and subsequent uncertainty still remains high. It is very possible that a Winter Storm Watch may be needed in later forecast updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said: Upton seems to see this happening per there update at 550.... . As usual, there is uncertainty as to how far north the system will reach. 12Z runs have generally trended farther north, with ensembles suggesting a mean of around 2- 5 inches primarily for eastern Long Island and Connecticut, mainly for Saturday and ending overnight. However, the model spread and subsequent uncertainty still remains high. It is very possible that a Winter Storm Watch may be needed in later forecast updates Don't argue It's coming 10 to 12 for you . RGEM likes this too . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 NAM is showing a fun Saturday afternoon near ISP. A stiff breeze too: http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/fsound/index.php?type=2017010600|NAM|NE|sfc|temp|45|40.85,-72.88|undefined|undefined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 RGEM west of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 In case that link doesn't work well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 47 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Look at the 250 mb jet streak that is showing you where its headed. The STJ connection is why this is so wet , you are getting a PNA spike so there are height falls up the EC This is 6 to 12 from the city E . Ratios are 15 to 1 and youre snowing in the teens . Highest totals E. I dont even look at a precip grid the VVs show me where the max will go off . Just curious if this is your call for the second system or you're just describing what the NAM output is. And if it's your call, how much of the call are you basing on the NAM vs. other observations and/or model output to date? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 00z GFS looks a little bit better than 18z. The heights on the EC are slightly higher and the shortwave is a tick stronger. I don't expect it to look like a meso model at all, but it's good to see that it's following them to some degree. 00z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 GFS still mostly a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: GFS still mostly a miss. Not really worried. GFS is usually last to the party in regard to Miller A's. I want to see the CMC, Ukie and Euro come on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 GFS has a grand total of one inch for the city between both waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 25 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Just curious if this is your call for the second system or you're just describing what the NAM output is. And if it's your call, how much of the call are you basing on the NAM vs. other observations and/or model output to date? I like 6 from both waves at KNYC. Out on Orient point. This is .75 to an inch for him and I working off the premise of 15 to 1 . - 15 at 850 with deepening LP .The VVs look good and that lift and those mid levels support 15 to 1 I like the NAM and the RGEM here . I have ignored the GFS its just chasing convection off OBX Same error for 2 decades Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Jet streak on the GFS is impressive This should have been more north and west GFS error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Wow GFS. NAM gives me a foot, GFS zero...lol. Merica! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 RGEM for the 2nd system: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 (Courtesy Dsnowx) Nice shift on the RGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I'll take RGEM over GFS and NAM. Still more time for adjustments. West trend overall might not be over. 2-5 would be a conservative prediction now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 h5 looks improved on cmc...came west 50 miles maybe..deeper too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 CMC stronger surface low and further west. Nice improvement from 12z. Trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 33 minutes ago, PB GFI said: I like 6 from both waves at KNYC. Out on Orient point. This is .75 to an inch for him and I working off the premise of 15 to 1 . - 15 at 850 with deepening LP .The VVs look good and that lift and those mid levels support 15 to 1 I like the NAM and the RGEM here . I have ignored the GFS its just chasing convection off OBX Same error for 2 decades Gotcha, thanks. Hope you're right, but that's certainly an aggressive call... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 UKMET looks west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 12z on top 0z on bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Do you have the precip totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 UKMET precip. Sizable shift west from 12z. hr 42 hr 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: The Quebec view isn't out yet but it's seems to have increased QPF Jesus. Blizzard for Montauk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, psv88 said: Jesus. Blizzard for Montauk Yes and you are in a good spot for this. UKMET is a 17 MB drop in 12 hours as its coming N/E . Its the number 2 skill score model . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: Jesus. Blizzard for Montauk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: A foot of snow and howling winds at the lighthouse. Sleigh ride into the Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 23 minutes ago, psv88 said: A foot of snow and howling winds at the lighthouse. Sleigh ride into the Atlantic? Sick storm for the cape and islands. This could be a legit blizzard there and expeciallt Nova Scotia. For everyone else getting too excited is setting up the potential for a major let down. Until we see some run to run consistency this could go either way. 2-4" looks like the best call now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Sick storm for the cape and islands. This could be a legit blizzard there and expeciallt Nova Scotia. For everyone else getting too excited is setting up the potential for a major let down. Until we see some run to run consistency this could go either way. 2-4" looks like the best call now 2-4 is heck of a lot better than the two flakes we were supposed to see it the same time yesterday. We are certainly heading in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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