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Wave 2, 1/7-8/17 Discussion/OBS


Rjay

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4 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Not quite, and it is probably too amped. Although coastal NJ should watch this closely.

 

This is 15 to 1 

 

.5 gets you 7 

.75 gets you 11

Look aloft , dont look at the precip algos , those increase

 

 

Miller A s that do this will find an inch of liquid very close to NYC.

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4 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

This is 15 to 1 

 

.5 gets you 7 

.75 gets you 11

Look aloft , dont look at the precip algos , those increase

 

 

Miller A s that do this will find an inch of liquid very close to NYC.

2 Things:

1) I am looking aloft. I like the strength of the shortwave, but I think it digs too far south at its latitude with not enough amplification of the PNA ridge. This has much more potential for Boston as it catches the later development, and their longitude will help immensely.

2) It's the NAM.

P.S. Someone in SE Virginia will see snowfall rates exceeding 2"/hour at the peak of this storm.

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Just now, nyblizz44 said:

50 -75 miles tomorrow to the West and you have yourself 224 in the suburbs and we're looking at 4 to 8 in New York City and over a foot on Eastern Long Island

I'm leaving for chattham tomorrow afternoon, was waiting till tonight's runs to see, gonna head up for the weekend since I'm out of work with an Injury lol #superweenie

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4 minutes ago, mimillman said:

2 Things:

1) I am looking aloft. I like the strength of the shortwave, but I think it digs too far south at its latitude with not enough amplification of the PNA ridge. This has much more potential for Boston as it catches the later development, and their longitude will help immensely.

2) It's the NAM.

 

Look at the 250 mb jet streak that is showing you where its headed.

The STJ connection is why this is so wet , you are getting a PNA spike so there are height falls up the EC 

 

This is 6 to 12 from the city E .

Ratios are 15 to 1 and youre snowing in the teens .

Highest totals E.

I dont even look at a precip grid the VVs show me where the max will go off .

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2 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Look at the 250 mb jet streak that is showing you where its headed.

The STJ connection is why this is so wet , you are getting a PNA spike so there are height falls up the EC 

 

This is 6 to 12 from the city E .

Highest totals W .

I dont even look at a precip grid the VVs show me where the max will go off .

We will see where the rest of the suite comes in.

Are you a trader? Because you talk like a trader.

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1 minute ago, PB GFI said:

 

Look at the 250 mb jet streak that is showing you where its headed.

The STJ connection is why this is so wet , you are getting a PNA spike so there are height falls up the EC 

 

This is 6 to 12 from the city E .

Ratios are 15 to 1 and youre snowing in the teens .

Highest totals E.

I dont even look at a precip grid the VVs show me where the max will go off .

If Nam were correct I think anyone from central to eastern Long Island would be 12-15"

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1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

If Nam were correct I think anyone from central to eastern Long Island would be 12-15"

Agree . 

I am looking for .5 to 75 KNYC  and 1 on LI 

But yeh AC to ELI thats not out of the question. 

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JB posted about 1967 saying it was close to this event...Close is only good in horse shoes and hand grenades...There was a CBS TV weather man in 1975 that was gone right after he predicted a major storm up the eastern seaboard that gave NYC less than one inch...It was on January 20th, 1975...He was gun ho on a big storm...I forgot his name...I lived thru 1967 and would like to see that again...I was seventeen and it was a very good winter...February 1967 had one day torch's and snow the next day or same day in one case...

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7 minutes ago, snywx said:

 

9 minutes ago, snywx said:

Hopefully E LI does well... Don't think they have seen much of anything so far this season

we had about 4 inches last storm, and I think half inch before that. I can't remember how many storms we have had lol

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