MJO812 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Another tic west for our area Cape Cod does well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 12z NAM ( Top), 18z NAM (Bottom) Total precip for both events.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Mid Atlantic getting crushed Hr45That trough is still sharpening on various forecast models. We may not be done coming West. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3km NAM still has much more than other models, but it shifted a little SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 31 minutes ago, snywx said: 12z NAM ( Top), 18z NAM (Bottom) Total precip for both events.. Looks like west of LI actually did worse on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 SREF PLUME FOR LGA is 5" TOTAL for both waves at about an 11:1 ratio. Has deducted from Wave 1 and increased Wave 2. With continuous sub-freezing we could actually see a decent amount on the ground for two days or so after event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: Looks like west of LI actually did worse on this run. Yea, just noise at this point, the 0.50 line went east about 20 miles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Again I'd pay more attention to the upper air charts than the surface QPF. QPF can shift pretty wildly between runs. The sharpening of the trough to me is more intriguing than the QPF. I think there's a fair chance at this point that SE of NYC can squeeze out 6" between both events-i.e. On the Island and coastal NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 ZERO on the GFS for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The 18z GFS is slightly farther east. The PNA ridge is a little less amplified. Still not bad; just looked like noise. We'll see what 00z brings. 18z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The RGEM looks solid, though. It's not as amped as the NAM, but it's stronger than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I think after the 00z model runs Saturday (possibly the 12z runs tomorrow) you can pretty much lock up what will happen with this system for our area, for better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 What does the ensemble distribution look like within the SREF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 .5" qpf at the temps progged can get you 6-7" of snow. Come on SREF'S/NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, mimillman said: What does the ensemble distribution look like within the SREF? The spread is still to the north and NW. The problem I have using the SREF'S and the NAM is they have a "wrong" bias. Courtesy of Doug's model page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: The spread is still to the north and NW. The problem I have using the SREF'S and the NAM is they have a "wrong" bias. Courtesy of Doug's model page. Haha. My guess is the ARW members are skewing the mean again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 When isn't there a NW spread on the SREF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, NortheastPAWx said: When isn't there a NW spread on the SREF? Usually it's bc you'll have a few ARW members over Cleveland but I havent looked at the members and can't really comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: Usually it's bc you'll have a few ARW members over Cleveland but I havent looked at the members and can't really comment. After taking out ARW mean is still around 7 inches of snow it looks like for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The main takeaway from the 21z SREF is that it continues the idea of a west trend. The mean QPF for the NMB members is 0.43 in, which indicates that the ARW members aren't the only members showing a decent amount of precip. The mean QPF for the ARW members is 0.97 in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Jeez NAM looks even more amped with the southern shortwave at 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The 00z NAM has a stronger shortwave than the 18z NAM. The PNA ridge is a little less amplified, however. 00z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Nice jet streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Classic I95 snowstorm coming. 6 to 12 DC to Boston . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Great look at 36 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 We gon' get NAM'd, y'all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, NortheastPAWx said: We gon' get NAM'd, y'all. Bring IT ON. COME HOME TO PAPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Classic I95 snowstorm coming. 6 to 12 DC to Boston . Not quite, and it is probably too amped. Although coastal NJ should watch this closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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