UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 toral rap precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 weatherbell only has it out to 21z. out to 23z on pivotal has 0.4 QPF for the city/western nassau and 0.5-0.7 for suffolk from west to east. it's still not done snowing at that point, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Can you guys tell if this thing going Negative tilt on us or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowBlitzkrieg said: weatherbell only has it out to 21z. out to 23z on pivotal has 0.4 QPF for the city/western nassau and 0.5-0.7 for suffolk from west to east. it's still not done snowing at that point, either. Didn't realize the rap went out more than 18hrs to be honest, my apologies.. I realize it was still snowing but didn't see 6+ for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Blizzard warning issued here... 12-18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 still another 3-4 hours of snow after this point. probably overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 0z CMC came in more west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, Jason215 said: Can you guys tell if this thing going Negative tilt on us or no? Not trying to get in trouble w/ the mods, but this post just cracked me up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Is expecting 6-8" in coastal monmouth far fetched? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 0z CMC came in more west What's the precip look like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: Is expecting 6-8" in coastal monmouth far fetched? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, weatherfreeeeak said: What's the precip look like Much further west than the 12z run Looks like 3-6 for the metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1/07 00z Guidance Summary NYC SREF: 0.45 NAM (regular): 0.35- 0.45 GFS: 0.10 - 0.15 RGEM: 0.40 - 0.45 UKMET GGEM: 0.30 - 0.35 UKMET: ECM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Looks like a 20-30 mile NW shift with CMC compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Much further west than the 12z run Looks like 3-6 for the metro area From Upton : Eastern Union County: SATURDAY SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 When the GFS is by itself like this and running against the grain it's usually complete garbage. I'd trust the RGEM/ECMWF blend and call it a day. Things trended much better today so I think I can finally come on board for something significant. It's not easy when the pattern is this progressive. Truly threading the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Not trying to get in trouble w/ the mods, but this post just cracked me up.... Glad you got a good laugh! What prompted my question was the water vapor loop posted a few minutes prior. To my untrained eye it looked like the trough was about to go negative. I could be totally wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 My point and click here is forecasting only a 30% chance of snow with no accumulations. NWS humping that GFS hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Jason215 said: Glad you got a good laugh! What prompted my question was the water vapor loop posted a few minutes prior. To my untrained eye it looked like the trough was about to go negative. I could be totally wrong though. If the trough was going negative now this would be a coastal hugger and a snowstorm for the Appalachians. The trough is really progressive so it won't be going negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If the trough was going negative now this would be a coastal hugger and a snowstorm for the Appalachians. The trough is really progressive so it won't be going negative. Gotcha, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Question: what liquid to snow ratio are we using for Suffolk? Currently I see anywhere from .4" to .6" liquid across central Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 That Ukmet tho.. Its a snowstorm up here now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, snywx said: That Ukmet tho.. Its a snowstorm up here now lol Can you post a map or qpf for the metro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, snywx said: That Ukmet tho.. Its a snowstorm up here now lol Reading the New England forum, the S/W is coming in deeper than modeled. That's all good news for a further west track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Ukmet looks great. May have shifted 20 miles west or so from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: Can you post a map or qpf for the metro... Its a more uniform spread of the precip as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Looks good for 6 inches at the park. I think everyone's being conservative because of the sharp cut off but still up to pa border were snowing and probably great ratios up until Sparta, NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1/07 00z Guidance Summary NYC SREF: 0.45 NAM (regular): 0.40- 0.45 GFS: 0.10 - 0.15 RGEM: 0.40 - 0.45 UKMET: 0.40 GGEM: 0.35 - 0.40 ECM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 I think it's safe to say the nws will give NYC metro a Wwa with latest runs. GfS is all alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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