Allsnow Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Yea raps ugly It's 8-10 for Li and 6-7 for metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, Allsnow said: It's 8-10 for Li and 6-7 for metro Maybe ugly for him but not for the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Its quite obvious which model Upton is riding for this event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, snywx said: Its quite obvious which model Upton is riding for this event.. And they have been burned for this in the past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 0Z GFS continues with sharp cutoff to west of Hudson theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 GFS pretty unchanged down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 How long a duration event for NYC at best 6 hrs? 10 hrs? 12 hrs?Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 GFS pretty unchanged down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
husky0101 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Are situations like this common when the GFS solution is consistently different from short-range mesoscale models? And in those situations, which typically are more reliable or have been shown to perform better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, sferic said: Hey long a duration event for NYC at best 6 hrs? 10 hrs? 12 hrs? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Hey do that thing where you click around on model sites brah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: And they have been burned for this in the past And how many times have people been burned for leaning on the NAM. Time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It's 8-10 for Li and 6-7 for metro where are you seeing this? EDIT: nevermind, i was looking at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, snywx said: And how many times have people been burned for leaning on the NAM. Time will tell It's not just the Nam this time around lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, husky0101 said: Are situations like this common when the GFS solution is consistently different from short-range mesoscale models? And in those situations, which typically are more reliable or have been shown to perform better? Yes the situation happens a lot. Anecdotally, I'd say the GFS verifies better like 60% of the time, but it's had some epic busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Maybe ugly for him but not for the metro I'm on the cape bro... not even Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowBlitzkrieg said: where are you seeing this? Rap only goes till 3pm tomorrow and is not 6-7" for NYC idk where he sees this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 29 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 20 miles west and most of the board is in business for 4+ Trend is our friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Personally would weigh ukmet/rgem over GFS. 2-4 for NYC would be my call. 3-6 for Nassau and 4-10 for Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 look at that plume heading right up the coast,also look at the placement of the energy in canada hanging back allowing this westward shift and some tracking up the coast. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I'm on the cape bro... not even Wow Good luck Enjoy 1 minute ago, F5TornadoF5 said: Personally would weigh ukmet/rgem over GFS. 2-4 for NYC would be my call. 3-6 for Nassau and 4-10 for Suffolk. 2-4 is a good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 I think someone on E LI is going to see a foot from this, while cities West of I95 will barely see anything. 4-6 for NYC Metro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Rap only goes till 3pm tomorrow and is not 6-7" for NYC idk where he sees this I just looked at the 02z RAP on pivitolweather and it does show around 6 inches for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, BxWeatherwatcher said: look at that plume heading right up the coast,also look at the placement of the energy in canada hanging back allowing this westward shift and some tracking up the coast. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Reading some of the posts in the SE forum. Seems that the transition to snow has taken longer than expected for many. Not sure if that means the storm is taking a slightly further inland track and whether that means a slightly further west storm for us? Just curious if you or anyone has an opinion on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I'm on the cape bro... not even Rest that foot out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: I just looked at the 02z RAP on pivitolweather and it does show around 6 inches for NYC. you sure? This is 02z hour 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 you have it on 1 hour snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowBlitzkrieg said: you have it on 1 hour snowfall 2 minutes ago, SnowBlitzkrieg said: you have it on 1 hour snowfall This is latest 03z... snow depth, meaning total snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: you sure? This is 02z hour 18 The hour 21 Kuchera ratio map on Pivitolweather shows 6 inches for NYC. I'm looking at it again right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, ILoveWinter said: Reading some of the posts in the SE forum. Seems that the transition to snow has taken longer than expected for many. Not sure if that means the storm is taking a slightly further inland track and whether that means a slightly further west storm for us? Just curious if you or anyone has an opinion on that. suggesting a stronger se ridge and a weaker block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, F5TornadoF5 said: Personally would weigh ukmet/rgem over GFS. 2-4 for NYC would be my call. 3-6 for Nassau and 4-10 for Suffolk. This isn't a good forecast. I would tweak it to say 3-5 for Nassau, but otherwise I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.