NEG NAO Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Not enough confidence for a warning west of nyc we have been down this road many times before - and it is impossible to be forecast exact amount differences between Queens and Newark - and it still is possible Newark gets higher amounts then Queeens - depends on how the precip sets up and if there is any banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 For my interior peeps.. srefs are .34 mean for Newburgh area with a .56 max... with ratios that would but 4-6" up as far up as swf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: For my interior peeps.. srefs are .34 mean for Newburgh area with a .56 max... with ratios that would but 4-6" down as far up as swf Nice! We all win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Really sharp cutoff west of the Hudson on the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, psv88 said: Nice! We all win. Hopefully.. I'm worried for those guys with virga tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 someone posted this in the mid atlantic forum, around 15:1 ratios for us. apply those to the NAM QPF (which is admittedly probably too high like always) and it's a crush job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 The RGEM looks west on the black and white maps. Maybe .40 to Queens 12-00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, SnowBlitzkrieg said: cant believe Suffolk still doesn't have a WSW yet. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ081&warncounty=NYC103&firewxzone=NYZ081&local_place1=2 Miles SSW Pine Valley NY&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning&lat=40.9045&lon=-72.6796#.WHBa8LGZNAY There isn't enough confidence to move the WSW westward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: For my interior peeps.. srefs are .34 mean for Newburgh area with a .56 max... with ratios that would but 4-6" up as far up as swf Historically terrible imop. i would be shocked with anything more than heavy clouds out nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Really sharp cutoff west of the Hudson on the 0z NAM. How is that a razor sharp cut off? If anything its more of a gradual one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1/07 00z Guidance Summary NYC SREF: 0.45 NAM (regular): 0.35- 0.45 GFS: RGEM: 0.40 - 0.45 UKMET GGEM: UKMET: ECM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Hi Res name coming west again this is going to surprise a lot of people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 the NWS in Philly has upped the advisories a tier to the NW, adding all of the SE PA counties and converting parts of South Jersey from Advisories to Warnings. They've also updated the map again (pasting the link, as I can't paste the graphic), increasing forecast snowfall again, with the 3" line now within a few miles of the NJ TPK from South Jersey to New Brunswick. A little surprised they didn't add Mercer and Middlesex to the Advisory area, but maybe they'll do that after the full 00Z model suite is done, assuming the rest of the models trend a bit snowier; Mercer and Middlesex are generally listed as 1-3" snowfall (with the high end in the SE parts of each county). Stay tuned. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 916 PM: upgrading ne MD through PHL to an advy. increased POPS through much of the area tomorrow and snow amt map will post with a hasty update prior to 930 cron of products. Not much more to say except that multi models with .15" PHL area and dry snow water ratios will result in lots of fluff... sharp cut off somewhere vcnty MQS- FWN. cud see isolated 4-5" back to I95. http://www.weather.gov/phi/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, snywx said: How is that a razor sharp cut off? If anything its more of a gradual one The NAM is usually too heavy on the western edge its precip shield so that would be less if you correct the NAM bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Fwiw DC ends with .3" qpf on the latest HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 RGEM brings 2-4" all the way up to 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: RGEM brings 2-4" all the way up to 84 Slight shift east from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: RGEM brings 2-4" all the way up to 84 If the Hi-res NAM is correct its a 3-4" event up here. Doubt it but interesting nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 RGEM slightly tighter gradient to the west. NYC on east same totals as 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 I kind of agree with the tight gradient idea. This is running into really dry air, and the dynamics will probably be focused near the coast. I think it goes from 1" to 5 or 6" in 30-40 miles. These models like the NAM and RGEM aren't shifting east as much as they're tightening the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Rgem 20 miles west and most of the board is in business for 4+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I kind of agree with the tight gradient idea. This is running into really dry air, and the dynamics will probably be focused near the coast. I think it goes from 1" to 5 or 6" in 30-40 miles. These models like the NAM and RGEM aren't shifting east as much as they're tightening the gradient. Thats not much of a tight gradient.. Ive seen 12" differences in 15 miles here the last few yrs. Just like yr there was a 18" difference in 20 miles. Now thats a tight gradient lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, snywx said: Thats not much of a tight gradient.. Ive seen 12" differences in 15 miles here the last few yrs. I guess it's relative. This won't be a monster with a comma head dropping 3" an hour either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 20 miles west and most of the board is in business for 4+ Ill take 2-3" from this setup and run. Would put me over 25" for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 End of hrrr run and still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, jm1220 said: I guess it's relative. This won't be a monster with a comma head dropping 3" an hour either. Yeah I hear ya but a 4" difference in 30-40 miles is more gradual than tight. I personally think this is a 1" event for us here in the interior with 2-4" for NYC w/ upwards of 8-10" out toward the east end of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I kind of agree with the tight gradient idea. This is running into really dry air, and the dynamics will probably be focused near the coast. I think it goes from 1" to 5 or 6" in 30-40 miles. These models like the NAM and RGEM aren't shifting east as much as they're tightening the gradient. Exactly what we were getting at earlier with where banding sets up. I'm really thinking that western heavy band is a really great place to be. Exactly where it sets up is yet to be seen. But on the western side you fight dry air and have a lack of precip on the eastern side you have subsidence isssues. That area running SSW to NNE east in our area comes in with warning level amounts. Well further east out twords eastern Long Island and eastern NE your in the main precip sheild and banding will not matter as much and amounts should be more uniform. We have seen this scenario in countless past storms. I don't think we see a true deform band in this area like during some of the greats as this storm just doesn't have the dynamics. But as always there will be winners and losers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
husky0101 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 isn't the 0z rap indicating the low traveling further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, husky0101 said: isn't the 0z rap indicating the low traveling further east Yea raps ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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