dmillz25 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, mimillman said: We should be approaching an acceptable range for the SREF. Has anyone seen the latest mean? Next one comes out in an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, allgame830 said: What is this from?? 18z rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, dmillz25 said: Next one comes out in an hour I think the ex-ARW members should be very telling if this trend is real or not. NAM at 54 hours is silly...NAM at 24 hours is definitely better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: What is this from?? 2.5km rgem aka HRDPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e46and2 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, sferic said: Does too, too west introduce mixing issues anywhere ? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk not a very scientific reply..but i can't remember the last time warm air ruined a storm for us...after being so used to it for so many years. sure i have seen many busts but they have been misses or non-developers. as long as winds remain north of east i think we are fine. sidenote: almost every major winter storm here does mix, hard to remember many great ones without sleet, but it doesn't really hurt the outcome in the big ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Forky's GIF may be the best image I've seen here in years. thank you for posting that. The lakes trough clearly influencing the western progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 17 minutes ago, allgame830 said: What is this from?? 18z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 SREF going the wrong way for LGA 6", 4", 4". WPC has NYC at 40% for at least 4". Cobb Method NAM moved up to 7" but needs a whopping 20:1 ratio to get there. Cobb Method GFS has just 2"-3", but had nothing earlier. Its' ratio is a high 18:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 13 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: Forky's GIF may be the best image I've seen here in years. thank you for posting that. The lakes trough clearly influencing the western progression. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ click on "trend gif" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, CIK62 said: SREF going the wrong way for LGA 6", 4", 4". WPC has NYC at 40% for at least 4". Cobb Method NAM moved up to 7" but needs a whopping 20:1 ratio to get there. Cobb Method GFS has just 2"-3", but had nothing earlier. Its' ratio is a high 18:1. I wouldn't be too concerned about the SREF. The GFS as mentioned will probably be the last to really catch onto the trend. It's almost time to follow models like the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 39 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I wasn't aware of this. I truly hope he will continue to post. He is a quality contributor. The Board benefits from a diversity of thought. I agree, always nice to have different opinions that are grounded in science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I wouldn't be too concerned about the SREF. The GFS as mentioned will probably be the last to really catch onto the trend. It's almost time to follow models like the HRRR. I disagree. In this time frame, the SREF has most value, particularly seeing how its more amped mesoscale members behave. If it's shifting east, it's important to note. I certainly trust a NAM/SREF combo right now over the RGEM. Lastly, the HRRR should be used to model very specific areas of banding 1-3 hours out, certainly not at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, CIK62 said: SREF going the wrong way for LGA 6", 4", 4". WPC has NYC at 40% for at least 4". Cobb Method NAM moved up to 7" but needs a whopping 20:1 ratio to get there. Cobb Method GFS has just 2"-3", but had nothing earlier. Its' ratio is a high 18:1. Wait for the 21z SREFs. I expect them to follow the western trends seen this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 13 minutes ago, mimillman said: I disagree. In this time frame, the SREF has most value, particularly seeing how its more amped mesoscale members behave. If it's shifting east, it's important to note. I certainly trust a NAM/SREF combo right now over the RGEM. Lastly, the HRRR should be used to model very specific areas of banding 1-3 hours out, certainly not at this range. The RGEM is killer at this range! It showing what it is showing is a great sign for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Thanks again forky, great tool/product that ive seemed to just gloss over.. 12 run cycle trend for GFS-24 hr accumulated precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Thanks again forky, great tool/product that ive seemed to just gloss over.. 12 run cycle trend for GFS-24 hr accumulated precip. Amazing. Sorry if I missed this, traveling so am on mobile. What's the product called? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Trend Gif, at the bottom of the page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Srefs hav .5 on NYC doorstep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Srefs hav .5 on NYC doorstep Correct me If Im worng wasnt it .3 earlier in the day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Srefs hav .5 on NYC doorstep Sref leaning left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, nyblizz44 said: Correct me If Im worng wasnt it .3 earlier in the day? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 What do the srefs show now for JFK ?Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, sferic said: What do the srefs show now for JFK ? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk educated guess .7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 This could be the case where JFK does better than Manhattan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said: educated guess .7 Wow. With ratios that could be 10". Snow growth looks conducive in this for 15-1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, jm1220 said: Wow. With ratios that could be 10". Snow growth looks conducive in this for 15-1 ratios. 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Wow. With ratios that could be 10". Snow growth looks conducive in this for 15-1 ratios. My friend, as I indicated that's an educated guess, I didnt take a look. Apoologies for any misunderstanding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 If trends continue west are blizzard warnings possible around New York City or Long Island? Can 1 inch qpf make it to NYC ?Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, sferic said: If trends continue west are blizzard warnings possible around New York City or Long Island? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk I really doubt it. The low center will be too far offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, sferic said: If trends continue west are blizzard warnings possible around New York City or Long Island? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk I don't think so. We'd still need a pretty huge shift west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just a friendly reminder from our friends in Upton: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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