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Wave 2, 1/7-8/17 Discussion/OBS


Rjay

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1 minute ago, snywx said:

Thats a big time shift west. Brings advisory level snows back here. if 0z holds or continues its westward trend then it should open some eyes. Not having the GFS on board is def concerning though.

the gfs did shift a bit west also but the precip shield was smaller,personally i wouldn't take heavy stock in the gfs currently. everything has clearly shifted west and quite possibly not done shifting yet..

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2 minutes ago, BxWeatherwatcher said:

the gfs did shift a bit west also but the precip shield was smaller,personally i wouldn't take heavy stock in the gfs currently. everything has clearly shifted west and quite possibly not done shifting yet..

Im a big fan of the RGEM but its clearly the western outlier. Lets see what 0z brings before we start running a victory lap

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6 minutes ago, snywx said:

Im a big fan of the RGEM but its clearly the western outlier. Lets see what 0z brings before we start running a victory lap

don't forget the nam'er,not much but it also shifted back west a lil bit..and here's the ukie frames bonus for visual enjoyment.:lol:  

 

 

17010800_0612.gif

17010718_0612.gif

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4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the jet streak keeps getting stronger on all the models. i think this will come west until the very last minute and i think much of nyc could see 6"

I think we all know how conservative but how strong a met Forky is...If it wasnt clear from the barrage of models going west ( Inclduing the GFS with its improving dynamics BTW) this declaration is one heck of an exclamation point to an evolving and potentially volatile situation. In some ways this is much more interesting , from a metreology prespective, then had we been slated for a straight up 6-12 from DCA-NY-Bos.

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59 minutes ago, BobbyHolikWillFindYou said:

Select region, then northeast.

Hey, if you're dispensing TT assistance, is there a way to view total snowfall from the Euro on that site?  I see posters occasionally posting ECMWF snowfall maps, but wasn't sure where they get them from (had always heard it's a paid site and people weren't supposed to have access without paying).  I don't even see total snowfall as an option for the Euro on TT.  Thanks, in advance.  

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2 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said:

I think we all know how conservative but how strong a met Forky is...If it wasnt clear from the barrage of models going west ( Inclduing the GFS with its improving dynamics BTW) this declaration is one heck of an exclamation point to an evolving and potentially volatile situation. In some ways this is much more interesting , from a metreology prespective, then had we been slated for a straight up 6-12 from DCA-NY-Bos.

Pretty much in line with Paul's call from yesterday!  Paul, where art thou amigo??

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2 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said:

I think we all know how conservative but how strong a met Forky is...If it wasnt clear from the barrage of models going west ( Inclduing the GFS with its improving dynamics BTW) this declaration is one heck of an exclamation point to an evolving and potentially volatile situation. In some ways this is much more interesting , from a metreology prespective, then had we been slated for a straight up 6-12 from DCA-NY-Bos.

Yes I agree, Miller A's are always fun to track. 

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7 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the jet streak keeps getting stronger on all the models. i think this will come west until the very last minute and i think much of nyc could see 6"

Wow, we see lots of posters posting about all kinds of overly optimistic scenarios with little support, but in my recollection you rarely do that.  So, I'm listening and hoping you're right.  Have you been talking to Bernie Rayno?  :>)

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6 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said:

You are right visually it is. Without a negative tilt wht's bringing the storm closer to the coast  other than a temporary +PNA Forky?

the +pna and the fact that the s/w keeps getting stronger. it's neutrally tilted when it's near us

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5 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the +pna and the fact that the s/w keeps getting stronger. it's neutrally tilted when it's near us

Ok, excellent point so here is the next logical question? the RGEM is showing 7 in ( without ratios I believe), NAM is up to 4 in ( again KNYC proper) and each have lead the way along with UKIE and the EURO and GFS have trended their way. What's to stop this from going even further west all but gauranteeing WSW as far west as EWR?

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