Allsnow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 All of Long Island is 6+ and middlesex county nj south 4-6. NYC around 4 inche s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I think WWAs should drop soon. WSW for eastern LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, BxWeatherwatcher said: i think this thing is coming west and not by a bit. the radar echos and satellite loops can confirm how far north and west the whole system is at this point in time compared to models. it might safe to say that model watching might not do us very well in forecasting this storm. Any meteorological reason you think this storm is coming way west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, BxWeatherwatcher said: i think this thing is coming west and not by a bit. the radar echos and satellite loops can confirm how far north and west the whole system is at this point in time compared to models. it might safe to say that model watching might not do us very well in forecasting this storm. Why? This is said EVERY storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Any meteorological reason you think this storm is coming way west? I don't think way west. Maybe continued ticks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Rjay said: Any meteorological reason you think this storm is coming way west? weaker 1st wave,baroclinic zone setup is still near the coast and the blocking is overdone. yesterday was a prime example with the first wave,it was pretty north and west compared to most guidance. and it usually snows where it wants to snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The 0.50"+LE line makes it to about the Queens/Nassau County line on the Parallel NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Difference between half a foot of snow and 1-2" is literally less than 25 miles on the NAM. Someone in Essex/Morris/Union counties and west will not be a happy camper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: I don't think way west. Maybe continued ticks yes ticks are our ally bud lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 CIPS ANALOG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Not sure on the accuracy of the Parallel NAM because I haven't used it much but it's close to warning criteria for the city. 4-6" with 10:1 ratios. 4"+ back to about EWR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, BxWeatherwatcher said: weaker 1st wave,baroclinic zone setup is still near the coast and the blocking is overdone. yesterday was a prime example with the first wave,it was pretty north and west compared to most guidance. and it usually snows where it wants to snow lol Ummm. With respect no. Yesterday's storm did not come westate of the forecast. This storm is about many things but perhaps most importantly it's the kicker. The system wasn't so Progressive we would all be doing a massive snow dance right now. We're in better shape than we were in 36 hours ago but all we can hope for in my humble opinion I still hope for a similar small ticks and both the expanse of the precipitation field and movement to both the North and the West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Crush job out here on the cape...haven't seen a storm like this in about 4 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Crush job out here on the cape...haven't seen a storm like this in about 4 years Nws saying 18 out there. Guessing NAM seem 2 ft. plus again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Crush job out here on the cape...haven't seen a storm like this in about 4 years The end of January storm in 2016 was big there too, I think most had over 15" on the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, nyblizz44 said: Nws saying 18 out there. Guessing NAM seem 2 ft. plus again? With 15:1 atleast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 NYC and NE NJ are certainly close enough to more substantial snowfall that continued small shifts north and west are going to make all the difference. Also, I think nowcasting this storm once it gets going is going to be very important and some surprises could certainly be in store with this one. I am currently not expecting more then a few inches for my area but that is subject to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, nyblizz44 said: Nws saying 18 out there. Guessing NAM seem 2 ft. plus again? I'd probably go 15-20" out there. It'll be amazing late in the day tomorrow. Its almost nowcast time and last-second model watching. I think what I guessed before is still good but maybe from the city east it could nudge upward if we see another 20-30 mile tick west. Unfortunately I don't think it matters west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Rtd208 said: NYC and NE NJ are certainly close enough to more substantial snowfall that continued small shifts north and west are going to make all the difference. Also, I think nowcasting this storm once it gets going is going to be very important and some surprises could certainly be in store with this one. I am currently not expecting more then a few inches for my area but that is subject to change. Where I am I think 3-4" right now, but hopefully we can sneak 5-6" if the ratios are good and we see another tick west. Generally high end advisory for western LI and warning for eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Jeez SE VA under a blizzard warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: a 25-50 mile tick west would be huge here,we would all be under winter storm warning level criteria if that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4km NAM has 7 inches for the city lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 NAM has a weenie snow band over much of LI late afternoon, like an inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: 4km NAM has 7 inches for the city lol It even brings snow back here. Doubt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 23 minutes ago, nesussxwx said: Difference between half a foot of snow and 1-2" is literally less than 25 miles on the NAM. Someone in Essex/Morris/Union counties and west will not be a happy camper. Sup, how much for highland lakes, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 WSW here for 12-16" chattham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The long range HRRR is really dry. Nowhere near the same ballpark as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 How often does Norfolk, VA and Boston, MA receive a blizzard with NYC receiving less than warning criteria in the same storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 ..NWS has issued a WINTER STORM WARNING for ELI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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