Rjay Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Euro has under an inch for the city proper with this wave. Increased on ELI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The big question, is this the start of a continuing trend further north and west? The next 24-36 hours of model runs should be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The ECMWF actually had a nice improvement vs. the 1/5 0z run. ACY: 0.22" (0z: 0.02") ISP: 0.14" (0z: None) NYC: 0.03" (0z: None) SBY: 0.42" (0z: 0.18") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Very possible however my red flag for this event, is zero ensembles support, the EPS and Gefs are pretty unanimous on a near miss solution, which is right in line with ggem/GFS/nam/euro.... no reason other than staying hopeful to think this thing has what it takes to get out ahead of the energy dropping from Canada allowing for the trough to dig and phase in time to bring it up coast...I'm not sayin it's impossible, I just think it's not gonna happen for anyone west of eastern Long Island... best place to be is ELI, and I think they could overperform, but I think they overperform with wave 1 not wave 2... Also keep in mind single digit dew points, and a very cold air mass, with a progressive flow, and late phase... your gonna need to see some decent DBZ overhead otherwise your LE pours virga only shot we have is models are wrong on the timing and we get an earlier phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: The big question, is this the start of a continuing trend further north and west? The next 24-36 hours of model runs should be very interesting. This sums it up perfectly from ORH Wxman in NE thread: Here's where the PNA ridge comes into to play...a more amped PNA ridge will help push the lakes energy more south rather than east so that the southern stream has room to round the base and come up the east side of the trough....so we'll want to root for a more amped PNA ridge. A sharper southern stream can help too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: The ECMWF actually had a nice improvement vs. the 1/5 0z run. ACY: 0.22" (0z: 0.02") ISP: 0.14" (0z: None) NYC: 0.03" (0z: None) SBY: 0.42" (0z: 0.18") This is going to be close. I think the radar will be painful to watch as it's dumping on the fish. Someone's going to smoke cirrus north off the city too ala feb 5 2010. The jersey shore and the island are very much still in the game for a moderate snow event (2-4, 3-5") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 If I am not mistaken, the Euro doesn't usually show wild swings one way or the other but usually smaller steps if it corrects itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: This is going to be close. I think the radar will be painful to watch as it's dumping on the fish. Someone's going to smoke cirrus north off the city too ala feb 5 2010. The jersey shore and the island are very much still in the game for a moderate snow event (2-4, 3-5") I agree. Hopefully, the Jersey Shore and Long Island will cash in, even if the rest of the area doesn't. Cape Cod might do well, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Feeling good about a decent event from the Queens border on east. Nassau and Suffolk look good for 1-3/2-4, with Eastern Suffolk up to 6+? Will be nice to have a snowfall on a Sunday, take my daughter out sleigh riding and what not, especially on top of tomorrow's snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 We are certainly making some strides today with this becoming more favorable for our area. While my concentration is currently with the few inches I am expecting from wave #1 tonight things have certainly gotten more exciting for this event to stay invested in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The brief PNA spike might help us out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: The brief PNA spike might help us out here That's probably the reason the models have shifted the track somewhat closer to shore. Hopefully, the PNA will pop positive to further sharpen the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The New England mets are talking about the improved 500mb trend and possible further shifts west with the QPF. I wouldn't pay as much attention verbatim to the snow maps and precip printouts. Those will shift around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: That's probably the reason the models have shifted the track somewhat closer to shore. Hopefully, the PNA will pop positive to further sharpen the trough. So allow me to bother you with this question Don, what could increase the chances for a temporary + PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Think I'll head to my inlaws house out on the cape for this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Think I'll head to my inlaws house out on the cape for this weekend Shouldn't you rest up that bad leg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Brief + PNA during the timeframe of the storm 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said: So allow me to bother you with this question Don, what could increase the chances for a temporary + PNA? Right now, greater amplification of the pattern than currently modeled would probably lead to that outcome. The last two days have seen the guidance increase the magnitude of the forecast transitory rise in the PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: Right now, greater amplification of the pattern than currently modeled would probably lead to that outcome. The last two days have seen the guidance increase the magnitude of the forecast transitory rise in the PNA. Appreciate the clarification Don! Always a genteleman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, psv88 said: Shouldn't you rest up that bad leg? It's in a cast lol...seen the 3k Nam from earlier? I didn't even pay attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 15z SREF with another northwest shift Leaning west on the spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 15z SREF with another northwest shift Leaning west on the spread Can you post the 9Z so we can see the shift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: 0.50 QPF on the SREF plumes for LGA That is for both waves... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: That is for both waves... Yep, just realized that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 EPS is similiar to the op but leaning west Great sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: EPS is similiar to the op but leaning west Great sign I still don't like the fact that 0 of the 51 EPS members, and all of the Gefs members don't even have a rogue Low coming up coast, they're all scrapers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Nams coming west again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nams coming west again Hard to tell through 36 hours. It might just be slower... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Mid Atlantic getting crushed Hr45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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