Jsdphilly Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, RedSky said: That is the general idea Thanks, in that case, time for a movie and bed! Once I wake up in the middle of the night, I am likely gonna be to excited to go back to bed if this looks like it really is coming togehter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I was in the shower. Likely my last update tonight....work early AM. Hrrr didnt back off as much as it leveled out. Held steady irt track and intensity. Never did show much qpf but I take the hrrr total accum maps with a grain of salt anyway. The NW shifts all afternoon were enough support for me to know west of 95 will now see some accumulation. NAM nudged N and W again and expanded precip on NW side back towards Lancaster if not a bit farther W. More important than the models at this hour, precip is starting to break out in Eastern Tennessee and Eastern Kentucky. That is a good sign as far as the westward expansion of developing precip. And rain continues in much if GA, SC, and NC without a strong push of CAA South for now anyway. See ya in the AM. Still no snow in Atlanta. Heck, Norfolk is borderline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Jsdphilly said: Whats the time frame for this looking like? Early morning start...early afternoon finish? Looks like it starts around 7-8 am and tapers off west to east between 4-6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Jsdphilly said: Thanks, in that case, time for a movie and bed! Once I wake up in the middle of the night, I am likely gonna be to excited to go back to bed if this looks like it really is coming togehter! I like it so much more when snows start during the late morning and afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Busy night for the pros at Mt Holly 916 PM: upgrading ne MD through PHL to an advy. increased POPS through much of the area tomorrow and snow amt map will post with a hasty update prior to 930 cron of products. Not much more to say except that multi models with .15" PHL area and dry snow water ratios will result in lots of fluff... sharp cut off somewherevcnty MQS- FWN. cud see isolated 4-5" back to I95. No other comments for the rest of the area since just dont have time to be sure. 900PM: preparation...we may add a tier of counties along I95 to the advy ... especially IF the 00z nam has similar qpf through 18z Saturday, as its 18z vsn. We saw the 18z RGEM increase qpf. We know .10 qpf will probably equate to 1.5" of snow or more. Fine line sig snow and would like to be more sure about raising amounts on the western fringe and expanding the headline. 21z/6 SREF is much more robust than the GEFS. HRRRX through 00z Sunday continues to expand higher amts west. Will post a note at 945 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, hazwoper said: Still no snow in Atlanta. Heck, Norfolk is borderline DTs final call looking like a complete disaster at the moment. Then again so have most of his calls in the last few years. Have a feeling he ll update at like 2 am and make a super serious actually seriously finally final call though and claim victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 The Atlanta situation could be a red flag our snow numbers will go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: The Atlanta situation could be a red flag our snow numbers will go up. Been looking at that all night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 New 0z RGEM. Seems the actual moderate-heavier snow didn't trend NW but the light precip shield/virga did: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 the NWS in Philly has upped the advisories a tier to the NW, adding all of the SE PA counties and converting parts of South Jersey from Advisories to Warnings. They've also updated the map again (pasting the link, as I can't paste the graphic), increasing forecast snowfall again, with the 3" line now within a few miles of the NJ TPK from South Jersey to New Brunswick. A little surprised they didn't add Mercer and Middlesex to the Advisory area, but maybe they'll do that after the full 00Z model suite is done, assuming the rest of the models trend a bit snowier; Mercer and Middlesex are generally listed as 1-3" snowfall (with the high end in the SE parts of each county). Stay tuned. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 916 PM: upgrading ne MD through PHL to an advy. increased POPS through much of the area tomorrow and snow amt map will post with a hasty update prior to 930 cron of products. Not much more to say except that multi models with .15" PHL area and dry snow water ratios will result in lots of fluff... sharp cut off somewhere vcnty MQS- FWN. cud see isolated 4-5" back to I95. http://www.weather.gov/phi/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 20 minutes ago, RedSky said: I like it so much more when snows start during the late morning and afternoon. My best is 2pm (or about) start time....overnight...end early the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: My best is 2pm (or about) start time....overnight...end early the next day. Wonderful... anyone know if they have started treating the turnpike in the philly area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2017 Author Share Posted January 7, 2017 New 0z RGEM. Seems the actual moderate-heavier snow didn't trend NW but the light precip shield/virga did: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.htmlRgem seemed ok to me. Deformation band sets up right over SE PA and Western NJ for several hours in the afternoon with snow tapering between 6-7 pm. Havent seen totals but general idea looks good still. G'nite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Rgem seemed ok to me. Deformation band sets up right over SE PA and Western NJ for several hours in the afternoon with snow tapering between 6-7 pm. Havent seen totals but general idea looks good still. G'nite. That's the 2nd good night...see ya soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Nervous about this one with me in aston pa. Could be a close call. I'm going with 2-4" but I'll gladly welcome more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 20 minutes ago, Tibet said: Wonderful... anyone know if they have started treating the turnpike in the philly area? No no...you misunderstood. That would be my ideal time for a snowstorm not tomorrow. Tomorrow should be 7-8am (or so) to mid/late afternoon. (as of now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: No no...you misunderstood. That would be my ideal time for a snowstorm not tomorrow. Tomorrow should be 7-8am (or so) to mid/late afternoon. (as of now) Gotcha, thanks for the clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Atlanta still with heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Time to begin scrutinizing the radars. I began scrutinizing around 5 or 6...giving close scrutiny to the northern edge of the precipitation - looking for that bulge north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 ^ You really mean it...3 times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Namo goodoh what? Namo goodah waddamannah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Glenn new numbers at 11pm...think he's low balling us: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 hour ago, RedSky said: People forget to use the NAM 50% accumulation reduction formula. I could be in trouble I told family coming from east Jersey they are only getting 3-4" tomorrow oops It could lower your forecasting accuracy average a little bit but maybe not. I sometimes add the caveat - "but, you know, it's the weather". (One of the things that makes weather interesting too - no guarantees!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 This one is a nail bitter. Mark Shanaberger seems anxious. He went with the consensus, but the rare bust high was clearly on his mind while giving the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Glenn new numbers at 11pm...think he's low balling us: Looks good to me. I think his map is perfect honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 I've never seen a nuisance 2-4" event get so much hype and be surrounded by so much drama. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: Looks good to me. I think his map is perfect honestly. Yeah glenn's map is a beauty. very articulate looking. 10/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Certainly more reason to have an obs thread for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief83 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Down to 16 here in Worcester. Snow on the ground and no wind. COLD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: Looks good to me. I think his map is perfect honestly. IMO, there will be areas in the 1-3" who receive 3+...that's where I think they'll fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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