anthonyweather Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Latest hrrr loop during the important frames. Still snowing when extrapolated past the end of the run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Better yet here is 23z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Can any of you guys see 3-5 inches for SE PA. It honestly seems like a possibility at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 hour ago, PaEasternWX said: Can any of you guys see 3-5 inches for SE PA. It honestly seems like a possibility at this point. Trying not to get too hyped for this as we could easily be just an inch tops but the 18z GFS was about another 15 mile nw shift away from this being a reality at least for extreme se pa(philly, lower bucks and Montgomery, possibly delco). To me that's more of a tick nw that has a very realistic chance of occurring as it isnt unheard of for models to be that little off even in the near term. The gradient is going to be tight, definitely see a storm where someone sees 4-6" while 5 miles NW only sees an inch or two. With the short term model trends looking encouraging I'd say it's a 50/50 possibility depending how fast this thing deepens and if the kicker is a hair slower than modeled. but outside of those areas, while it wouldn't be a total shocker, it'd need another pretty significant shift to get all of SE PA into that range and I wouldn't count on it. Being right on the edge of seeing a decent snow and only an inch or 2 though is nerve wracking and exciting at the same time. I will add that nowcasting storms like this always tend to surprise one way or another, and rarely play out exactly as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 I work in Cherry Hill and get to work around 6 AM. Yeah, there was no accumulation at all on the roads. Even my driveway (in Williamstown, central Gloucester County) was primarily still just wet at 5:30 when I left with just a couple random patches of snow on it in the places that are more shaded during the day.It didn't mostly, I also work in Cherry Hill and there were some usual spots with very little snow on them, road wise. But 99% was wet at 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Trying not to get too hyped for this as we could easily be just an inch tops but the 18z GFS was about another 15 mile nw shift away from this being a reality at least for extreme se pa(philly, lower bucks and Montgomery, possibly delco). To me that's more of a tick nw that has a very realistic of occurring as it isnt unheard of for models to be that little off even in the near term. The gradient is going to be tight, definitely see a storm where someone sees 4-6" while 5 miles NW only sees an inch or two. With the short term model trends looking encouraging I'd say it's a 50/50 possibility depending how fast this thing deepens and if the kicker is a hair slower than modeled. but outside of those areas, while it wouldn't be a total shocker, it'd need another pretty significant shift to get all of SE PA into that range and I wouldn't count on it. Being right on the edge of seeing a decent snow and only an inch or 2 though is nerve wracking and exciting at the same time. I will add that nowcasting storms like this always tend to surprise one way or another, and rarely play out exactly as modeled. I am really beginning to watch the areas in GA/SC/NC that were supposed to be snow. The longer they stay rain the further north and west that precip is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, hazwoper said: I am really beginning to watch the areas in GA/SC/NC that were supposed to be snow. The longer they stay rain the further north and west that precip is coming The one issue might be that right now, at least here in NW Philly (and am seeing the same at KPHL), the dews are running in the upper single digits and low double digits so it is pretty dry out there. If some surge doesn't moisten it up to saturate the column, the storm may skip on by without much accumulation other than maybe some backend bands as it pulls away (we have seen that movie before sometimes getting more snow as the storm pulls away - particularly if you get under a death band). Alternately, if there is actually some convection and enough moisture gets drawn in earlier, with the temps progged to be very cold tomorrow, it could over-perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 I hear the 0Z HRRR backed off a bit. Cmon Steve you can't just report good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Appears NAM made another move NW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 20 minutes ago, hazwoper said: I hear the 0Z HRRR backed off a bit. Cmon Steve you can't just report good news I really don't like the hrrr either way. I've found that it tends to really over estimate snowfall and sometimes has crazy changes in its long range from run to run. It really isn't all that useful until it's about 4-6 hours from the event. Much more interested in the 00z suite tonight to see if the 18z trend of ticking nw continues. A tick I'd all we need at this point in se pa. I agree with you that the observations of rain further north in the southeast than anticipated would be a really good sign. Also will be watching the pressure falls later on, I'm hoping the warm water will help us as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Appears NAM made another move NW... It's like 15-20 miles further nw than 18z gfs. .25-.5 line gets through philly and lower bucks and montgomery counties. With the high ratios expected at around 15:1 that would be around 3-5". I don't have access to snow maps though on my phone. 1-3 inch snows extend back to the lower Lehigh Valley. All of SE PA sees at least 2 inches to maybe 4 in places. Not a huge shift but with the gradient it makes a big difference in the end result. Very good shift for a lot of us, even those who were expecting only flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Namo. Lehigh county no further Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Very nice nam from for lower Delaware and coastal new jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Namo goodoh what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 BTW a big part of South jersey sees 6-10 inches. Along the shore in Cape may County is probably more like 12-14" with ratios. That crew is sitting pretty right now, rooting for yall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 WWA issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Nice backend CCB on 4K NAM as well through 21Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 People forget to use the NAM 50% accumulation reduction formula. I could be in trouble I told family coming from east Jersey they are only getting 3-4" tomorrow oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, The Iceman said: It's like 15-20 miles further nw than 18z gfs. .25-.5 line gets through philly and lower bucks and montgomery counties. With the high ratios expected at around 15:1 that would be around 3-5". I don't have access to snow maps though on my phone. 1-3 inch snows extend back to the lower Lehigh Valley. All of SE PA sees at least 2 inches to maybe 4 in places. Not a huge shift but with the gradient it makes a big difference in the end result. Very good shift for a lot of us, even those who were expecting only flurries. Yeah, those were my thoughts. Just wasn't completely sure....sounds good. GFS and EURO agreement would help... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Considering 48 hrs ago it looked I wasn't getting anything, I would gladly lock a single inch from this event. I still am expecting no accumulation for me out this way. Either way, this storm has been a whole lot of fun to track. All I really don't want is to be staring south in dry, subsiding air outside a deform band on the edge of the precip shield as you guys in montgomery county cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Guys be very careful with western side of QPF on models...they are smoothed and likely to not accurately represent cutoff. I like what the NWS just did with their WWA. I would not be surprised if this is like the December 30, 2000. When I was watching heavy snow on the Philly TV channels while it was partly sunny at my house in Chester County. In that one PHL got 9" and I got some late wrap around and ended up with 1.5" . I am not saying Philly gets anything close to 9" with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Newman said: Considering 48 hrs ago it looked I wasn't getting anything, I would gladly lock a single inch from this event. I still am expecting no accumulation for me out this way. Either way, this storm has been a whole lot of fun to track. All I really don't want is to be staring south in dry, subsiding air outside a deform band on the edge of the precip shield as you guys in montgomery county cash in. I didn't think I was in a good spot but now lower Montgomery county doesn't look all that bad...go figure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2017 Author Share Posted January 7, 2017 I hear the 0Z HRRR backed off a bit. Cmon Steve you can't just report good newsI was in the shower. Likely my last update tonight....work early AM. Hrrr didnt back off as much as it leveled out. Held steady irt track and intensity. Never did show much qpf but I take the hrrr total accum maps with a grain of salt anyway. The NW shifts all afternoon were enough support for me to know west of 95 will now see some accumulation.NAM nudged N and W again and expanded precip on NW side back towards Lancaster if not a bit farther W. More important than the models at this hour, precip is starting to break out in Eastern Tennessee and Eastern Kentucky. That is a good sign as far as the westward expansion of developing precip. And rain continues in much if GA, SC, and NC without a strong push of CAA South for now anyway.See ya in the AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Latest SREF gets the 7" contour into upper Bucks lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Time to begin scrutinizing the radars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Whats the time frame for this looking like? Early morning start...early afternoon finish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, RedSky said: Latest SREF gets the 7" contour into upper Bucks lol Can you throw a link to it in this thread? I don't have it bookmarked on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Jsdphilly said: Whats the time frame for this looking like? Early morning start...early afternoon finish? That is the general idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 whoop whoop, I got a HWO small chance of 1" as per Mt Holly. Baby steps but were gettin there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, The Iceman said: Can you throw a link to it in this thread? I don't have it bookmarked on my phone. Posted in MA thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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