Newman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Rgem further NW http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The trends that trended are now trending opposite those trends so....its probably a trend. Probably. Sounded like you were trending towards going to Cape May - go tonight and get up early and post pics of wind blown heavy snow on the beach please. Whatever happens it's been a fun few days of tracking, especially since we have some snow on the ground now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 18z GFS with a pretty big shift nw. .25 line almost to the Delaware River where before at 12z it was just inland from the coasr. Solid 2-3" for philly and lower bucks/mont with ratios. Warning event for the majority of South Jersey. Keep coming west, keep coming west... another 15-20 mile shift like that and philly and immediate suburbs get into the 3-6" range with the high ratios. Tomorrow will be fun to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Hrrr continues to nudge N and W irt precip shield with every run. On another note, now whats with the weak low pressure popping up in Western NC last several runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Rgem further NWhttp://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.htmlWow, even has a ccb over us. Here come those surprises? I cant help but noticing on other guidance that sleet/mix line keeps heading North. Part of DelMarVa now showing signs of mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Is there a limit to how sharp the trough digs and how strong the shortwave can trend? Like is there a "barrier" that will limit the push NW? Those appear to be 2 factors, along with others, that are bringing the precip shield further west. I'm holding very low expectations to limit disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: Glenn at 4:25pm....seems about right or close. Not a fan of all those overlapping ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 NAVGEM significant jump West at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 18 minutes ago, MGorse said: Not a fan of all those overlapping ranges. It's mathematically nonsensical. Even worse is the discontinuity in Cape May - you simply can't have a 3-5" zone next to a 6"+ zone. Snowfall is a continuous, not a discrete response. I really like the maps you guys have been putting together this year. Only minor suggestion would be to have "dots" next to the city names, so it's clear exactly where the town is. Great forecast for today's event, too. Almost everywhere was within the snowfall ranges you guys forecast (except parts of Ocean/Monmouth, which somehow got <1" - I guess that's banding for you). But, if you're taking requests, I've been emailing with Scott (the IT lead at Mt. Holly - very nice guy and fellow RU fan) and I asked about whether the Eastern Region had snowfall forecast maps for the whole region and he said no. Man, that would be a really nice addition to the products you guys put out, as right now, I have to click in and out of several WFOs to see all the maps and it would be so much nicer if there were one map. Figured it couldn't hurt to ask. :>) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 39 minutes ago, Newman said: Is there a limit to how sharp the trough digs and how strong the shortwave can trend? Like is there a "barrier" that will limit the push NW? Those appear to be 2 factors, along with others, that are bringing the precip shield further west. I'm holding very low expectations to limit disappointment. I think it has more to do with the "kicker" of energy coming down from Canada. The trough and s/w changes can only help so much if something comes and punts it eastward. Any NW trends seem to have the kicker being a bit further north and slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 All - had a a question that I didn't want to start a new thread on and hoped you might be able to help me with. If this should go in banter, let me know. A guy I know in Cherry Hill was saying that the snow this morning didn't accumulate at all on paved surfaces. I found that very surprising and was wondering if maybe he just woke up after 8 am and was looking at a road that had been traveled on/treated and hit with some sunshine. I know in Metuchen, at least through 5 am, the snow on the roads/sidewalks/driveways in my neighborhood (prior to plowing) was the same depth as the snow on my car and grass, given temps in the mid/upper 20s - when I looked at temps in the Cherry Hill area overnight I thought they were around 28-29F, which should easily support accumulation on non-treated roads. Anyone out there in the Cherry Hill area care to comment? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 51 minutes ago, MGorse said: Not a fan of all those overlapping ranges. Yeah, me neither. AW kinda doing the same. Never really liked going from 1-3 to 3-6...too broad in a short area. Oh well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Hrrr this hour bumped N and W yet again. It has done this with almost every consecutive run this afternoon (it is ran every hour btw). Other notes of interest on the hrrr.....1) a slp reflection over SW NC which has been popping up for several runs now 2) a notable sharpening of the trof with more ridging out ahead 3) a slower storm overall and 4) a slightly deeper storm each run.Also, maybe my imagination but the rgem, nam, and now hrrr are hinting at more dynamics coming into play as our system intensifies off the coast. 500-850 mb is energetic. 300 mb has a significant jet exit max showing as well.Models still trying to catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Yeah, me neither. AW kinda doing the same. Never really liked going from 1-3 to 3-6...too broad in a short area. Oh well... That is not the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, hazwoper said: That is not the same thing I think I know what you're going to say but elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: I think I know what you're going to say but elaborate? The ranges don't overlap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, hazwoper said: The ranges don't overlap Forget me, I was thinking something totally different. (lack of sleep last night) I'm somewhat ok with that....doesn't bother me either way. As far as AW, even with the sharp cut off line tomorrow, going from 1-3 to 3-6 gets to me a little more. It just looks like they didn't try to narrow it down. It's basically saying 1-6 near the blue/pink line on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 With the 18z suite Wxsim has significantly increased (relative to prior runs) snow amounts here in NW Chesco Here is the rundown (using a ratio from 10:1 to 20:1) Flurries by 8am with Light snow at 9am temp at 19.8 Moderate Snow by 930am temp 20.0 Moderate Snow at 1pm temp down to 18.4 with (0.9" to 1.8") Ends by 230pm temp at 18.1 with between 1.2" to 2.4" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 I need your guys opinion but based on short range models WSW snow for philly does not seem completely out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: I need your guys opinion but based on short range models WSW snow for philly does not seem completely out of the question. I think an advisory at most unless something really changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 ya no, with all the interest in tacking this thing, i didnt even stop to realize that this is during the day tomorrow. This is the best, wake up to pee in the middle of the night, see if the storm has collapsed on us...if not, get excited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 this is a nowcasting time, water vapor and radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2017 Author Share Posted January 7, 2017 Latest Hrrr another small tick N and W. Flakes all the way West to Harrisburg area now and N to Mt Pocono. Deformation band developing over SE PA towards end of run. Storm forward motion seems slightly slower again as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 I am somewhat encouraged by the fact that it is still rain in Atlanta and appears to stay that way for some time. More rain and less snow means further north (at least that is my weenie radar thoughts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Great updates on models for us Ralph! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, snowwors2 said: Great updates on models for us Ralph! Agreed steve can you post the grabs each time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Quakertown needs snow said: this is a nowcasting time, water vapor and radar Trying to beat out that kicker dropping down from MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2017 Author Share Posted January 7, 2017 Latest hrrr loop during the important frames. Still snowing when extrapolated past the end of the run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Flight out of Philly tm, stop over in Atlanta... than on to Myrtle Beach. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dizzy9479 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: All - had a a question that I didn't want to start a new thread on and hoped you might be able to help me with. If this should go in banter, let me know. A guy I know in Cherry Hill was saying that the snow this morning didn't accumulate at all on paved surfaces. I found that very surprising and was wondering if maybe he just woke up after 8 am and was looking at a road that had been traveled on/treated and hit with some sunshine. I know in Metuchen, at least through 5 am, the snow on the roads/sidewalks/driveways in my neighborhood (prior to plowing) was the same depth as the snow on my car and grass, given temps in the mid/upper 20s - when I looked at temps in the Cherry Hill area overnight I thought they were around 28-29F, which should easily support accumulation on non-treated roads. Anyone out there in the Cherry Hill area care to comment? Thanks! I work in Cherry Hill and get to work around 6 AM. Yeah, there was no accumulation at all on the roads. Even my driveway (in Williamstown, central Gloucester County) was primarily still just wet at 5:30 when I left with just a couple random patches of snow on it in the places that are more shaded during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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