Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 wow... mt holly going Gung-ho for coastal NJ already I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Let the SE forum get theirs. They've really been crapped on last few winters. As for me. I guess storm chasing 3 20+ storms has made me actually dislike 1-3" type events. I live for the big one these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Bacon Strips said: wow... mt holly going Gung-ho for coastal NJ already I see. Good for them! They must be on the 1980s style coastal-scrapes of my youth bandwagon. There were several when i lived in Morris Co, NJ back then that really drove me crazy seeing the immediate coast get hammered and we sucked cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just like to see 1-2" snow on top of snow tomorrow it's obvious this one is too far away to pull off a SECS in SEPA Word is Ukie has held, 0z Ukie was 3-4" in Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 After ukie, will be interesting if the euro holds the 2 inch line through philly. Like someone else said, besides the jersey Shore, i 95 area should expect 0-6 inches with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Very cold snow tomorrow at least 15:1 ratios whatever falls. Ukie gives Philly 4"+ and 2" N&W areas of this region Nice to get some support with the NAM faltering, the German agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Very cold snow tomorrow at least 15:1 ratios whatever falls. Ukie gives Philly 4"+ and 2" N&W areas of this region Nice to get some support with the NAM faltering, the German agrees Fwiw (which isn't much), the hrrr has a really ominous looking precip shield coming N and on our doorstep at the end of it's range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Fwiw (which isn't much), the hrrr has a really ominous looking precip shield coming N and on our doorstep at the end of it's range. does look interesting. could be the start of a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Bacon Strips said: does look interesting. could be the start of a trend. How many trends can one man go through?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 If that HRRR precip shield even comes close to verifying I'd be surprised. Best bet you take that picture, draw a line along the mason dixon line until you get to Pa/Delaware border. Draw a straight line from there to Long island. No precip makes it north of that line (past LI it will creep north into easter MA and ME), probably not even virga or radar hallucinations even. I'd be glad to be wrong, but I think the storm tracks too far east to eat away at the dry air being locked in by that PV lobe about to kick everything out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 How many trends can one man go through??The trends that trended are now trending opposite those trends so....its probably a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Hey don't knock a trend, it's the only trend you got - once said by a wise former accuweather weatherman to rename nameless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The trends that trended are now trending opposite those trends so....its probably a trend. It's nuts.. Euro coming in good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Looking like 2-3" around Philly per Bob Chill's map.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 ECM is only .075" less than the Ukie with excellent ratios would give Philly 3-3.5" .10" line can be seen over my house, figuring super happy fantastic ratios close to 2" Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Ill enjoy watching thing unfold....NOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 It's nuts.. Euro coming in good.Never thought we would ever be praising the Euro for showing 2".On a serious note, I still think this has high bust potential on either side. Models are having fits with convective activity. There are now squall lines in the GOMex that weren't progged 12-18 hours ago as well as tstorm clusters just off the coast which models are starting to key on. These little nuances can alter the wave track just enough at the last minute to cause rather significant shifts in snowfall amounts for better or for worse. These cluster can rob moisture to the NW BUT can also cause enough of a weakness that the actual slp center tracks along those boundaries much nearer the coast. Not saying anything historic will happen, just nothing that I really don't think this will be nailed down until the event is unfolding and I am betting some spots will see a surprise or 2 along the way. Just my $.02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 NAM will screw up this "feel good feeling" in about an 1.5 hrs or so.....but it's a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Latest Euro with 15:1 ratios for fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 DT's "last call" map shoots the 1" line practically through Philly...maybe including local burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 15 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: DT's "last call" map shoots the 1" line practically through Philly...maybe including local burbs. Well...there's always his "OK, so I'm not kidding, this really, really is my last and final call map" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, snowwors2 said: Well...there's always his "OK, so I'm not kidding, this really, really is my last and final call map" I hear what you're saying (thinking of his past "final" maps) but he may have nailed this "final" map. I hope not since it doesn't look like much for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Any chance us NW Burbs people can catch maybe some flurries? Some of the models have berks/lehigh on the fringe of the precip shield, but I'm going to assume that won't come to fruition due to subsidence and dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Latest NAM 18z came NW again..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Newman said: Any chance us NW Burbs people can catch maybe some flurries? Some of the models have berks/lehigh on the fringe of the precip shield, but I'm going to assume that won't come to fruition due to subsidence and dry air. Yeah I think we are on the outside looking in with this one, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, penndotguy said: Yeah I think we are on the outside looking in with this one, Funny, every storm so far this year has gone north of us with us on the line and now this one is going to the south of us with us on the line again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 11 minutes ago, Newman said: Funny, every storm so far this year has gone north of us with us on the line and now this one is going to the south of us with us on the line again. Yup this is one of the worst hobbies there is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 NWS up here thinks the dry air wins little or no accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 You can see the tight gradient in the NWS point and click forecasts At my house 30% chance - in Malvern just 10 miles SE 50% chance and finally 28 miles to my SE in PHL a 70% liklihood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Glenn at 4:25pm....seems about right or close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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