RedSky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Philly would get 3" on the new Ukie, winter is fun again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Philly would get 3" on the new Ukie, winter is fun again There's just something about tracking a storm for 36 hours from now while moderate snow is currently falling and will likely overperform in some nearby areas based on radar trends. Just seeing the weak coastal starting to enhance precip last few frames. Yes, winter is fun again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: There's just something about tracking a storm for 36 hours from now while moderate snow is currently falling and will likely overperform in some nearby areas based on radar trends. Just seeing the weak coastal starting to enhance precip last few frames. Yes, winter is fun again! Some will get snow on snow Saturday - that's a treat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Sounds like Euro went NW...don't have maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Yep... 2" jumped from jersey coast to I95!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2" gets basically to Philly on the Euro. NW shift both on the precip field and h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 NAM started the trend and... the GFS stands alone!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Still 48hrs left for trends,shifts, jumps and leaps. Quite surprised at this of course the NW ticks could be done find out soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Kinda odd following the Sat thing and it's snowing quite nicely currently w/probably closing in on 2"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Kinda odd following the Sat thing and it's snowing quite nicely currently w/probably closing in on 2"... Nothing beats back to back hits and we deserve it the first third of winter was dreadful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 13 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Kinda odd following the Sat thing and it's snowing quite nicely currently w/probably closing in on 2"... I wasn't going to stay up, but not too bad watching the snow and having a good euro run at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 OT but anything on the LR EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 19 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: OT but anything on the LR EURO? Nothing of significance doesn't look as good as 12z day 9-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 I hastily posted that 6z was a disaster but quickly deleted it after further review. GFS hasnt changed....holding its ground with minimal accums for South Jersey, nothing West of the NJ Turnpike. 6z NAM may have just come to its senses and cut precip on NW shield a rather fair amount. Maybe a hiccup but this run seems more reasonable. Blend of NAM/GFS is in order. Agree with Glenn, max is up to an inch West of I95 and even that will prove a challenge imho.Eta: SREF backed off totals for PHL as well. Road trip to Cape May might be in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 My rule of thumb is we (those of us in SE PA) rarely see snow from a storm that produces snow on the Carolina coast or Norfolk. My head tells me the back edge is 295, but my heart is holding out hope that I can put a fresh dusting on last night's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I thought the same thing about 06z being a bust, then remembered the snow totals are for only wave 2 at this point (unlike the combined totals we've been looking at the last 24 hours). Another additional 2 just west of the river, going to 6+ by the shore. Definitely not confident of the western edge of this, especially with how razor tight the precip shield looks to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 12z NAM ticked SE again. Notable changes on Western side of precip early in the run yields the dagger in the heart solution West of I95. The snow in Eastern Tennessee which would have been our snow to watch has been decreasing each run and is basically non-existent at 12z. Good luck South Jersey....you should still get clipped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Not good with the NAM...almost time to pack it in for anything resembling an inch around Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Philly? Another trend like that and this misses the shore too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 10 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Lucy plays for Boston. I think she's undercover. They dont experience the same level of fail as we do down here. For every football pulled away from them in Boston they have 10 interceptions and takeaways of our storms. So prophetic, this 12z run, if you look at the slide for 17z Saturday it looks like they carved out the precip for SE PA and plopped it up over Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Of course the 4km NAM is completely different....has a much stronger low tracking over OBX and trying to stay tucked into the coast. Lots of convection showing just offshore tho, so the higher resolution may be trying to place the slp center over the convection, ie, convective feedback issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, shemATC said: Philly? Another trend like that and this misses the shore too. I was being kind...we're all pretty much screwed at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 The 4km drops the slp from 1003 mb down to 993 mb in one hour also. This model is a victim of it's own high resolution! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Last 4 runs of the 4km NAM snowfall totals. The trend is not our friend: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Last 4 runs of the 4km NAM snowfall totals. The trend is not our friend: so much for our man the nam.... Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Yet far Eastern MA totals have increased and they get crushed. Boston intercepted the football in the end zone. Ugh. Big takeaway late in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Would anyone be surprised if the 12Z GFS takes a jump NW now? I know I wouldn't. We are probably honing in on a solution somewhere inbetween the 12z 12km NAM and the 6z GFS regardless imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Would anyone be surprised if the 12Z GFS takes a jump NW now? I know I wouldn't. We are probably honing in on a solution somewhere inbetween the 12z 12km NAM and the 6z GFS regardless imo. Not me. The difference between some actual snow and nothing is crazy narrow with this one. I wouldn't be blow away by 4-5 inches, yet I would also not be surprised if we barely see a flake! The classic 0"- 6" forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 As expected the 12z GFS ticked N and W with precip shield. A split between the NAM and the GFS (both trending towards each other) seems most realistic. West of I95, sorry, not our storm. Maybe up to an inch right along I95....if we are lucky. Gradient should go from virtually nothing N and W of I95 to a 3-6" event far South Jersey and extreme SE Jersey coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I'm good with 3-5" and never really bought into those NAM maps, although eye candy for sure. As they say, it's time for short range models and radar hallucinations. Curious how far west the precip shield is now versus what was modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.