zenmsav6810 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, hazwoper said: It's the NAM. While interesting for sure, I'll wait for others to come on board. RGEM isn't this bullish and likely GFS will not be either Did someone say bombogenesis. BECAUSE BOMBOGENESIS!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The nam seems to depict a banding/convective appearance. That can mean feedback issues or at least higher stakes for winners under those bands and losers under the subsidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 It's the NAM. While interesting for sure, I'll wait for others to come on board. RGEM isn't this bullish and likely GFS will not be either Hi res rgem has a similar deepening. Regular rgem op and GFS dont offer the same hi resolution. They are either sniffing something out or their higher resolution is having challenges handling the convection offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 The nam seems to depict a banding/convective appearance. That can mean feedback issues or at least higher stakes for winners under those bands and losers under the subsidence. Ninja lol.I honestly dont see the 500mb mechanism that would cause this to bomb out like that so I am leaning towards convective feedback issues on the higher resolution stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 rgem has been trending toward nam.Yes. Actually, everything has been following the NAM's lead.....except the GFS. 0z should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Ninja lol. I honestly dont see the 500mb mechanism that would cause this to bomb out like that so I am leaning towards convective feedback issues on the higher resolution stuff. I thought we agreed to hold the football on this one. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Our area is only half ass-ed running towards the football. Boston is in a full fledged sprint and could have a severe injury if the NAM pulls a Lucy on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Well the 0z GFS says no to wave 2 for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Aaaaaand the GFS holds steady. If u want to nitpick, it actually ticked SE a hair with the slp as well as precip shield. You cant make this stuff up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Aaaaaand the GFS holds steady. If u want to nitpick, it actually ticked SE a hair with the slp as well as precip shield. You can make this stuff up. Doesn 't the gfs have a SE bias? Im voting it off the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Our area is only half ass-ed running towards the football. Boston is in a full fledged sprint and could have a severe injury if the NAM pulls a Lucy on them.Lucy plays for Boston. I think she's undercover. They dont experience the same level of fail as we do down here. For every football pulled away from them in Boston they have 10 interceptions and takeaways of our storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, zenmsav6810 said: Doesn 't the gfs have a SE bias. Im voting it off the island. And the NAM has a too amp'd up bias.... need to look at everything. And at this point, looking at everything says NAM is overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Doesn 't the gfs have a SE bias? Im voting it off the island. I hope so. Max snowfall for wave 2 is around 1" total snowfall accumulation in far South Jersey right along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 There is no bias...I love folks that buy that bunk....there is only so far NW a system like this can go. Spots N and W of 95 were never in this game...now along the shore...bring it on. I may need to convince the wife that I need to take a road trip to Sea Isle for the storm....but as those of you with young kids like me -easier said then done!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 And the NAM has a too amp'd up bias.... need to look at everything. And at this point, looking at everything says NAM is overdone.The one red flag I see (and that I usually take heat for) and the reason I haven't completely taken the NAM bait lies with the CRAS model. Laugh all you want. It has proven a useful piece of guidance when used properly and not taken verbatim. When that model isn't amped up and tracking on the Western side of other guidance, then the system usually ends up on the SE end of guidance and more progressive. And guess what? The CRAS has been with the GFS....even slightly flatter and farther S and E and it has not waivered since it has gotten within range. Im feeling more a S NJ and direct coastal brushing with very little N and W of I95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I'll sleep a whole lot better if the euro remotely supports the nam. But I'm not getting the warm and fuzzies from Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said: There is no bias...I love folks that buy that bunk....there is only so far NW a system like this can go. Spots N and W of 95 were never in this game...now along the shore...bring it on. I may need to convince the wife that I need to take a road trip to Sea Isle for the storm....but as those of you with young kids like me -easier said then done!! Not really true. Meso scale models tend to overdo convection which can certainly skew the location of the SLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Not really true. Meso scale models tend to overdo convection which can certainly skew the location of the SLP. Sorry Haz those of us well N and W of the I95 corridor were never in the game for #2....but heck weather is not an exact science ( see Jan 2000) so what do I know - you may be more informed!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Sigh of relief on the GFS enough with those sic gradient storms already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The one red flag I see (and that I usually take heat for) and the reason I haven't completely taken the NAM bait lies with the CRAS model. Laugh all you want. It has proven a useful piece of guidance when used properly and not taken verbatim. When that model isn't amped up and tracking on the Western side of other guidance, then the system usually ends up on the SE end of guidance and more progressive. And guess what? The CRAS has been with the GFS....even slightly flatter and farther S and E and it has not waivered since it has gotten within range. Im feeling more a S NJ and direct coastal brushing with very little N and W of I95. Hi Ralph....ding ding ding....N and W of 95 not gonna happen IMHO.....but I am not a professional.....so we shall see!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said: Sorry Haz those of us well N and W of the I95 corridor were never in the game for #2....but heck weather is not an exact science ( see Jan 2000) so what do I know - you may be more informed!! Oh, no, I agree. We were always out of it. Just saying there are model "bias'" at least when it comes to the NAM Hopefully the pattern shifts in time for a killer Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 RGEM is better now has 1-3" in SEPA No complaints whatsoever with an inch or two Saturday on top of tonight's 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Haz - 100% agree!! With a very favorable for our area (nada nina) I believe we have multiple ops from late January thru Feb which is our prime period for wintry weather. Still think we wind up near to slightly above normal for snow this season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Glenn just put up a preliminary map for Sat and has up to an inch for Philly and local burbs...progressively increases heading S&E.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Sigh of relief on the GFS enough with those sic gradient storms already. Well thats one positive way to look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Well, I hope that South Jersey and the shore points get hit decently on Saturday. They dont get many chances during the winter so here's to that crew. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Glenn just put up a preliminary map for Sat and has up to an inch for Philly and local burbs...progressively increases heading S&E.... Yep... going 6+ at south jersey shore... OC here I come!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 12 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Glenn just put up a preliminary map for Sat and has up to an inch for Philly and local burbs...progressively increases heading S&E.... Here it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Hey everybody crazy uncle is coming in WEST duh duh duuuuuuuh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 0Z CRAS also came considerably farther West with the precip shield and is now among the farthest West leaning guidance. The GFS is on an island all by itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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