RedSky Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 He sounded concerned the snow down south was bulging north but his latest maps were benign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Ch6 AW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 4:23 AM, RedSky said: He sounded concerned the snow down south was bulging north but his latest maps were benign. Expand Thought the same... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 CMC with a big bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 12:00 AM, Birds~69 said: Forget me, I was thinking something totally different. (lack of sleep last night) I'm somewhat ok with that....doesn't bother me either way. As far as AW, even with the sharp cut off line tomorrow, going from 1-3 to 3-6 gets to me a little more. It just looks like they didn't try to narrow it down. It's basically saying 1-6 near the blue/pink line on the map. Expand I thought it was gonna go off on another tangent also. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 My call is pretty much Glenn's map but shift all of the totals about 20 miles NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 4:49 AM, The Iceman said: My call is pretty much Glenn's map but shift all of the totals about 20 miles NW. Expand I like his map as well....and your NW shift even more. Puts me right in that 3-5" call. I feel like gambling, so I'm going with exactly 3.5" at my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Dusted off the VA Beach webcam - getting busy down there. Link: http://www.vbbound.com/courtyard-virginia-beach-oceanfront-webcam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 ECM is 5-6" in Philly Atlanta is STILL raining I am feeling very bullish. Nice 0z runs outside the GFS I think 2-4" in SEPA NW to SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 6:35 AM, RedSky said: ECM is 5-6" in Philly Atlanta is STILL raining I am feeling very bullish. Nice 0z runs outside the GFS I think 2-4" in SEPA NW to SE Expand Thanks for the report. I love watching things develop but I'm gonna try and get some sleep and wake up around 5 or 6 am and hope for an interesting Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Isn't it just awesome when the trend IS your friend. I was expecting nothing but some flakes and the Euro has 2-3 imby. Cant beat this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2017 Author Share Posted January 7, 2017 Got up to check-in briefly and a few quick obs. 1) Tornado watches and warnings in FL. Those tstorms there and in SE are insane. Those squall lines are a thing of beauty for January. 2) Upper level obs irt to energy associated with the trof are off on several model initializations (NAM, Euro, Ukie from what I can tell). Actual vortmax and associated trof are quite a bit stronger and noticeably more amplified. 3) Atlanta was 99% rain.....just a few wet flakes at the end....SC mostly rain, much of NC East of the mountains rain, SE VA reporting rain....Norfolk mix sleet/rain. 4) the hrrr is a joke....many areas already with a few hours of accumulating snow not even showing as snow on the hrrr starting for another 3-4 more hours....these models arent even initializing correctly. 5) snow already on dca doorstep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just taking a look at radar gets me I tell you but also taking a look at metar reports snow is still falling into western VA and even into WV. If it starts to snow here by the time I go to bed around 7-8am (from work) then I believe we have officially seen which models have, if you wanna call it, won the forecast. After that is all bonus since i am currently being forecasted nothing out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2017 Author Share Posted January 7, 2017 My 3AM musings based on current data and maybe I'm completely off-base but my biggest concern at this hour is irt the copious amount of convection firing and for those of us on the NW fringes of the modeled precip shield. There is a chance that West of I95 still gets kind of screwed here.....too much of a good thing. Those deep areas of convection could rob moisture on the NW side of our storm. Couple this with the fact dewpoints are running extremely low, and things could turn out much drier than anticipated west of I95. Hoping Im wrong and just some thoughts attm. Going back to sleep now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 8:06 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: My 3AM musings based on current data and maybe I'm completely off-base but my biggest concern at this hour is irt the copious amount of convection firing and for those of us on the NW fringes of the modeled precip shield. There is a chance that West of I95 still gets kind of screwed here.....too much of a good thing. Those deep areas of convection could rob moisture on the NW side of our storm. Couple this with the fact dewpoints are running extremely low, and things could turn out much drier than anticipated west of I95. Hoping Im wrong and just some thoughts attm. Going back to sleep now. Expand Yea I see what you mean by the DPs I guess it will kind of be a wait and see thing. While that western edge is not all snow falling it also is not really shrinking either. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Nothing unexpected happened overnight.....snow weakening quickly on NW edge as forecasted. Still on track for nice event as you move southeast of I95....north and west of Philly little or no snow accumulation.Sent from my SM-T800 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Yeah not liking looks of radar. Early last evening short term model hopes have been dashed it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Yeah, I was hoping to wake up to a better looking radar. Spotty...meh, let it play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 11:21 AM, hazwoper said: Yeah not liking looks of radar. Early last evening short term model hopes have been dashed it appears Expand Most of the models other than the gfs are garbage these days. Euro has been on a slow decline for over 3 years. the nam is well, the nam. Short range models are okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 AW actually shifted the accumulations more NW from 11pm last night to 7am this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Radar looks ok for my location at least for now. Always knew this would be a tight gradient. You central and upper Bucksmont and Chesco guys both still look on track for at least an inch imo. Better than the flurries expected 2 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2017 Author Share Posted January 7, 2017 Even the Intellicast weenie radar wont be able to save us in SE PA this time. Enjoy your snows "down the shore"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Light snow started here around 9 am it's coming down lightly to almost moderately now and we have just a dusting so far - very dry, pixie dust snow. It's currently 21F here and the warmest temp in the state is only 24F on LBI, so no question of snow and accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 1:31 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Even the Intellicast weenie radar wont be able to save us in SE PA this time. Enjoy your snows "down the shore"! Expand I thought it has improved since 6:30...still seeing a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2017 Author Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 2:39 PM, Birds~69 said: I thought it has improved since 6:30...still seeing a couple inches.definitely an inch or 2 but not the 4-6" we could have gotten with a small nudge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Yeah, it looks like the precip shield is being projected better, but the actual slp further and further off carolina coast, which is opposite. One or the other will be right with this, not both. Just look at Norfolk. When we were supposed to get closer to 4", they were gonna get rain. That line has moved below the VA/NC border on live radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/7/2017 at 2:43 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: definitely an inch or 2 but not the 4-6" we could have gotten with a small nudge. Expand I'm going 2.5"+...some heavier echoes moving in the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 The mighty Ukmet and ECM have stumbled quite a bit lately. The NAM will always be that NAM SREF's done even get me started lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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