Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Looks like Central and Southern NJ may see snow with wave 2 on Saturday. Models have gone from nothing in NJ 18-24 hours ago to some guidance showing over 12" in parts of the area S and E of I95. Notable NW shifts on all guidance at 500mb the past 18 hours or so. Will it continue and push the snows into SE PA??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I really really want it to! Not sure that is going to be enough to get it to us though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 It will be interesting to see if Nam continues northwest trend into 18z. It has been trending north since 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 ECM is 3" for southeast portions of Jersey and 2" central Jersey. I think that is both waves. Increased from 0.00" to .03" for NYC however for wave#2 Tad different from the NAM eh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 Euro was another tick N and W with precip shield. Gets central and southern NJ into accumulating snow now with wave 2. West I95 shutout still as per the Euro. 2-4" type for central and southern Jersey this run. Going to need more than 'ticks' if West of I95 wants to see more than mood flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Euro was another tick N and W with precip shield. Gets central and southern NJ into accumulating snow now with wave 2. West I95 shutout still as per the Euro. 2-4" type for central and southern Jersey this run. Going to need more than 'ticks' if West of I95 wants to see more than mood flurries. Yeah, need more like a "jump" West at this point which doesn't seem all that likely. I could see a "tick" East more likely than a "jump" West.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 WSWatch up on jersey shore!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MsHeatMiser Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The NWS point forecast for PTW this morning was nada for wave 2, the updated forecast gives a 20% chance. Hopefully the trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 18z NAM 3k, if it hasn't been posted already, clobbers the NJ peninsula with 8-16" Saturday with a bulls-eye over Town Bank, Villas, Cape May, Wildwood general area. The improving trends continue. Even gets 3-6" up my way. Sref ticked West as well. .5" onshore it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 questions to consider for upcoming 00z NAM. Will it cave? will it hold serve? or will it continue the northwest trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, PaEasternWX said: 3 questions to consider for upcoming 00z NAM. Will it cave? will it hold serve? or will it continue the northwest trend? I think it will hold for nj shore, but pull the western edge of precip in making totals drop N/W. Precip shield extent seems to be the most overdone parts with Nam runs. Basically keep things close enough that people on the PA side of the river are the dogs stuck on the wrong side of the glass at the butcher shop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 16 minutes ago, shemATC said: I think it will hold for nj shore, but pull the western edge of precip in making totals drop N/W. Precip shield extent seems to be the most overdone parts with Nam runs. Basically keep things close enough that people on the PA side of the river are the dogs stuck on the wrong side of the glass at the butcher shop. I actually thought the same exact thing. NAM is likely overdone as always. This will be a super tight gradient storm. NW side totals (West of I95) from the 12km 18Z NAM will be cut (the 4km was overdone and I actually tossed it but was fun to look at anyway). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I actually thought the same exact thing. NAM is likely overdone as always. This will be a super tight gradient storm. NW side totals (West of I95) from the 12km 18Z NAM will be cut (the 4km was overdone and I actually tossed it but was fun to look at anyway). But do you think it caves for 00z or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 But do you think it caves for 00z or later.I don't know. I have seen the NAM hold on strong to an idea like this before and not really 'cave' until 6-12 hours lead time. It can be really stubborn at times and it's hi resolution sometimes hinders it more than helps it along. With that said, I have also seen the NAM lead the way such as with the January Blizzard last year. The latter is a rare occurrence tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 If 0z NAM in any way resembles the latest SREF people gone go crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Yea sref verbatim is a foot of snow for philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Yeah it's not last year's blizzard but it's not far from half the blizzard lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 23 minutes ago, RedSky said: Yeah it's not last year's blizzard but it's not far from half the blizzard lol NAM looks identical to 18Z through 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 MA subforum going a little nutty over the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Killer gradient storm on the NAM, my family members in Howell NJ get 10" while I suck exhaust at 2". Please not Feb 5 2010 again. Of course it's only the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 I stand corrected.....I thought the 0Z NAM would start eating away the NW side of precip shield. Instead, it seems to have bumped totals again N and W of I95. 12km, 4km, and 3km para all look good for at least 3 or 4 inches in my area (Central Bucks). I should stick to making weather predictions and not model trend predictions probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Yea sref verbatim is a foot of snow for philly. Where are you getting 12" for PHL on the sref? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Where are you getting 12" for PHL on the sref? the mean is 9.54 and if you times that by 15 you get near a foot since 9.54 mean is assuming 10:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 the mean is 9.54 and if you times that by 15 you get near a foot since 9.54 mean is assuming 10:1 ratios.Sick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Any realistic chance the cut off comes a little more north? Going to be brutal watching you guys get some decent accumulation from up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Am I seeing those numbers correct? Is that 999mb dropping to 995mb? In ONE HOUR? A 995mb slp off the DelMarVa and still deepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Am I seeing those numbers correct? Is that 999mb dropping to 995mb? In ONE HOUR? A 995mb slp off the DelMarVa and still deepening. It's the NAM. While interesting for sure, I'll wait for others to come on board. RGEM isn't this bullish and likely GFS will not be either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 rgem has been trending toward nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, PaEasternWX said: rgem has been trending toward nam. That is correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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