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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Winter!


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Wow, that band didn't take long to go boom!  Oswego special as its not supposed to move much till 5AM, so says KBGM and if its at this intensity then look out from Oswogo-Minerro-Fulton-Central Square special.  Congrats, we will get the leftovers as it settles to the South tomorrow morning then a bout of Multiple bands then a bit o snow Sunday then a snow to rain storm Tues-Wed.

Keep us posted Wolfie if your at home since it is Saturday night.

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3 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

Took a little ride earlier today to chase that Lake Erie band. The rates were very impressive. Prob a solid 2" an hour. These pics were from North Collins where there was AT LEAST 2ft on the ground (didn't have a measuring tape with me). The parking lot I was in had a solid foot of pure fluff in it which I'm assuming fell since last night. This was at 3pm and judging by radar I wouldn't be surprised if there's another 6-12" on top of this already with more to come. I would bet Forestville is over 50" since they were at 37" as of 8am this morning and they've been under that band for a good part of today.

IMG_0276_zpsnnbgjher.jpg

 

IMG_0285_zps0kkvgka4.jpg

 

IMG_0278_zpsd7muulbu.jpg

 

 

What a winter for the Southertier so far!

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That band is way north right now, u can see a slight southward movement over the lake.. Gfs has winds switching to wnw between 4am and 7am, so it should start to slowly drift south.. Problem is it won't be a sustained wnw wind, it most likely will be a short lived burst of heavy snow..

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kbuf

 

the main Lake Ontario band
is now in the process of sinking southward across eastern Lake
Ontario and Oswego county as winds realign out of the northwest
in the wake of the surface trough. This band will continue to
settle southward into Wayne...northern Cayuga...and southern Oswego
counties this morning...and will eventually give way to more multi-
banded activity that will continue through the balance of the day.

Like the Lake Erie lake snows...the Lake Ontario lake effect will
also begin to weaken later this afternoon as our airmass begins to
dry...and inversion heights begin to lower under the influence of
the building surface ridge. Further weakening will then ensue tonight
as the burgeoning ridge supplies further drying...lowering of the cap...
and a backing and increasingly sheared low level flow...with the
activity likely degenerating to some scattered leftover snow showers
by the time it approaches the Watertown area late tonight.

With respect to snowfall accumulations...a general 3 to 7 inches
of additional accumulation can be expected within the main lake
effect areas outlined above today...for which lake effect headlines
remain in effect as outlined below. Following this...more nuisance-
type amounts of 1 to 2 inches will follow east-southeast and
east of the lakes as the activity diminishes and lifts northward
tonight...with even lesser amounts of a half inch or less expected
northeast of the lakes overnight.
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some more kbuf

Conditions will start to deteriorate Monday night as strengthening
warm advection between the coastal high and the deepening storm over
the Upper Mississippi Valley will be accompanied by a deepening
moisture field. The increasingly efficient isentropic lift will
start to generate some light snow over the western counties shortly
after midnight...with the snow becoming steadier as it will spread
east across the Finger Lakes to the Eastern Lake Ontario region by
daybreak. Snow accumulations should generally be under an inch...and
restricted to sites west of the Finger Lakes.

On Tuesday...a strengthening low level jet and deep isentropic lift
will ensure that the pcpn becomes widespread and fairly steady
across all of western and north central New York. Given the strength
of the warm advection...the steady snow is expected to change over
to rain from west to east during the course of the midday and
afternoon. Before this change over occurs though...the wet sticky
snow should accumulate one to three inches...with the higher amounts
favored across the elevated terrain and also east of Lake Ontario.
Because of the deep southerly flow...have shaved back the QPF (and
corresponding snowfall) for the downslope areas north of the BUF to
SYR Thruway corridor. Temperatures on Tuesday will climb to near 40
across the western counties...with the mercury just making it above
the freezing mark across the North Country.

 

Our region will find itself sandwiched between an arctic high over
Quebec and a storm system over the Ohio valley on Saturday.
Guidance has been `all over the map` with this scenario...so will
maintain continuity with only low chc pops for snow showers across
the bulk of the forecast area.

Looking further down the road at the third week of the month...
The pattern looks anything BUT cold as a very progressive west to
east flow is being advertised by the vast majority of the medium
range ensembles. The big change in the pattern will largely come as
a result of the `dissolving` of the persistent omega block that has
been parked over Alaska. Without this obstacle to the high latitude
flow...deep troughing over the continent will give way to a low
amplitude flow that will serve as a block to the southward movement
of arctic air. Another factor that will help with the progressive
pattern will be general low pressure over the North Atlantic. The
absence of a `Greenland block` will only encourage the aforementioned
progressive flow. Boiling all of this down...there is relatively
high confidence that temperatures for the third week of the month
will average above normal with a very low potential for any
significant lake snow.
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2 hours ago, CNY_WX said:

Just measured just over an inch so far this morning-woo hoo!  Snowing lightly right now even though radar's not showing much over me. Anything that falls today seems futile since we are looking at a torch by the end of the week. 

We had a whopping 1.3" in total.  

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Some spotter reports from Oswego county, the 2nd Fulton report doesn't include this morning lake band..

 

 
...OSWEGO COUNTY...
   1 NE PULASKI          13.0   600 AM  1/08  COCORAHS
   W FULTON               8.5   830 AM  1/08  COCORAHS
   SE MINETTO             8.2   700 AM  1/08  COCORAHS
   6 E LACONA             7.0   700 AM  1/08  COCORAHS
   FULTON                 6.0   700 AM  1/08  COOP OBSERVER
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