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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Winter!


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9 minutes ago, cny rider said:

Would anyone hazard a guess how conditions will be Sunday afternoon on the I-90 corridor from Buffalo to Herkimer?

I'm worried about the Syracuse area particularly.

Have to decide today which vehicle we will take for the Sunday trip.

Thanks.

 

I would have very little concern about that trip. Should be damn near clear sailing. The 90 is well maintained and Sunday is a super minor event. 

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kbuf

 

On Saturday the lake band will become more tea kettle in nature,
dominated by land breeze circulations in the light flow. The band
will focus mainly in central and western Oswego County, with the
heaviest snow right along the shoreline. The band of snow will take
on an anticyclonic curvature with a surface ridge near the lake.
These types of bands will typically only drop heavy snow within a
few miles of the lakeshore, but can produce locally heavy snow in
places such as Oswego, Scriba, and Minetto. This tea kettle band
should be most intense during the morning, then weaken and contract
back over the lake during the afternoon. Expect additional amounts
during the day on Saturday of around a foot in the strongest bands
across Oswego County.

 

Lake effect snow on a light west-northwesterly flow will be focused
upon the southeastern portions of the lake to start the period. This
band will not have as far an inland extent to begin the night within
the light flow...and may lift towards the southern Tug Hill briefly
overnight before within a WSW flow ahead of the surface trough.
Greatest snow accumulations will be near Oswego County Saturday
night.

This trough will focus convergence along the long axis of Lake
Ontario such that a single band of snow will remain moderate through
the night. As such the current lake effect snow warning for the
three counties east of Lake Ontario has been extended through early
Sunday afternoon to account for additional snows. Snow intensity
will likely increase towards Sunday morning as inversion heights
increase, though veering winds behind the surface and upper level
low will quickly drop the band southward towards the southern and
southeastern shoreline of Lake Ontario. The increase in wind shear
may disrupt the band Sunday morning, with several less intense bands
of snow fall SE of Lake Ontario through the day. While the greatest
accumulations will be southeast of Lake Ontario...an inch or so of
snow may fall along the Orleans to western Wayne lake shoreline as
well.

StormTotalSnowFcst (10).png

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Tea kettle will be interesting during the day, I personally don't like it for Oswego (maybe I'm bitter I'd miss it), but I really like Saturday night/Sunday. Very well aligned flow for about 10 hours, and very good moisture/EL heights. 

The tea kettle will probably set up just along that ridge which would place it between Oswego and Port Ontario. I'd favor Port Ontario earlier in the day as flow aloft is still roughly 270, but it may try to sneak into Oswego during the day. Scriba may be a good happy ground. 

Once lake effect gets organized Saturday night/Sunday, it really will crank. 1-3"/hr. rates, somewhere around Redfield probably picks up 20" (sorry swva). Will be very interesting to follow. 

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6 hours ago, AppsRunner said:

Tea kettle will be interesting during the day, I personally don't like it for Oswego (maybe I'm bitter I'd miss it), but I really like Saturday night/Sunday. Very well aligned flow for about 10 hours, and very good moisture/EL heights. 

The tea kettle will probably set up just along that ridge which would place it between Oswego and Port Ontario. I'd favor Port Ontario earlier in the day as flow aloft is still roughly 270, but it may try to sneak into Oswego during the day. Scriba may be a good happy ground. 

Once lake effect gets organized Saturday night/Sunday, it really will crank. 1-3"/hr. rates, somewhere around Redfield probably picks up 20" (sorry swva). Will be very interesting to follow. 

It's been a good year for Redfield.  Over 150" already.  Hate I'm missing it.  It is snowing here in Virginia.  Should pick up 3-5" tonight.  That's a dusting for you guys.

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I'm still trying to figure out how a 1000mb LP is gonna bully its way into a 1040 HP on Tuesday.  We just might see Tuesdays event get more frozen as the event gets closer.  Then a massive overrunning event gets underway. Will we be on tyhe winning side of the boundary or on the warm side?

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46 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Whether or not this comes to fruition, the mere fact that a model spits out something like this in Mid January is sickening.  There is so much wrong with this one image....

awful outlook.png

wanna elaborate Delta as it would serve the Board well!  I think I know what ur talking about but I could be wrong!

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12 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

KBUF had the audacity to try and forecast tea kettle like band sitting over Oswego?  How did that work out?

Not particularly well. They picked up some snow earlier today but not the foot amounts they predicted. Still think this band ends up further north than they think tonight too 

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Meanwhile 3" per hour down in the southtowns again.

NYZ019-020-085-072030-
Southern Erie-Cattaraugus-Chautauqua-
144 PM EST SAT JAN 7 2017

...AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN ERIE...NORTHWESTERN
CATTARAUGUS AND NORTHEASTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES...

At 136 PM EST an area of lake effect snow stretched from near
Westfield to Hamburg along the Lake Erie shoreline, and then inland
across Southern Erie County. Embedded within this snow is an area of
heavy snow was located near Evangola State Park. This heavy snow is
producing snowfall rates up to 3 inches per hour as it drifts slowly
northeastward.

If driving along roads such as Route 5, and the NYS Thruway between
exits 59 and 57A, or Route 249, be prepared for rapid changes in
road and driving conditions.  Visibilities will drop quickly to less
than a quarter of a mile in this area of heavy snow.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow covered roads. Slow down and allow extra time when
traveling.
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