CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Was thinking Upstate/Eastern New York? Will start a new thread soon for storm tomorrow and possible LES this weekend. i concur, sounds good to me Buffalo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 24 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: WPC That's a clown map Bruh. This one has slowly become more interesting. Frankly, I'm rather content with 50s at this point. This feels like I'm living back on I-95 corridor, days of 40s and 50s and then wham! Several inches of what we used to call New England boilerplate glop. My snowblower may look more like a waterwheel clearing this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 50 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Lurking. I'll take synoptic over LES. My fave is hybrid. This is like a spring storm but with winter dynamics to work with- no diurnal. Bro, diurnal simply means change in Temp throughout the course of the day, so I don't know where it fits within this event? Its a dynamically driven snow event with heavy precip being able to drop the BL temps low enough to support snow, otherwise we'd sse nothing but rain here which is usually the case, This is why I'm surprised that the Syracuse area is in the mix for heavier snows than most in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I think you are absolutely right here regarding evolution of things. So. ONT and the GTO have more in common with WNY/CNY wx except they rarely get LES so most of our LES discussions are pretty much N/A to them. VT is in New England obviously so posting in that forum is a good fit for them and it's way more active. I think that's how many of us feel in ENY. I'm near the same latitude as both Syracuse to my west and SVT to my east, though I more resemble VT in the winter with average snowfall. Anyway, down to just below 37 degrees, after a high of 43 today. I have a feeling there will be a few broken shovels and backs here come tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, Syrmax said: That's a clown map Bruh. This one has slowly become more interesting. Frankly, I'm rather content with 50s at this point. This feels like I'm living back on I-95 corridor, days of 40s and 50s and then wham! Several inches of what we used to call New England boilerplate glop. My snowblower may look more like a waterwheel clearing this stuff. It is not Max, its a probability map is all bro? I can see if it showed accumulations but its not. CLown Map, ur funny cuz! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 I'm going 6-8" area wide with about 1/4" of liquid and not much fzrn, but we may see a period of IP! All in all, it will be a great system for snowmobilers as it will create a nice solid base! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said: It is not Max, its a probability map is all bro? I can see if it showed accumulations but its not. CLown Map, ur funny cuz! I was being facetious...the probabilities are a bit of a clown show though, for different reasons. In my professional electrical engineering career I've worked with the probabilistic people...I have always been more of a deterministic type though I see the virtue of applying probability analysis (correctly). There are times though, when you look at what goes into some probability analysis...you realize it's not altogether dissimilar from rolling chicken bones or flipping tarot cards. So I have a healthy skepticism regarding probability analysis. Maybe I've seen too many ****ty applications of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Also, in the regional weather page, why r we clumped together with PA? Doesn't make sense at all, and no wonder why ppl r confused as to where they should be posting. Tim went into the NE forum and asked, how much for KROC and ask him what they responded with. I don't even go into that forum as Id get banned in a heartbeat! split secong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: I was being facetious...the probabilities are a bit of a clown show though, for different reasons. In my professional electrical engineering career I've worked with the probabilistic people...I have always been more of a deterministic type though I see the virtue of applying probability analysis (correctly). There are times though, when you look at what goes into some probability analysis...you realize it's not altogether dissimilar from rolling chicken bones or flipping tarot cards. So I have a healthy skepticism regarding probability analysis. Maybe I've seen too many ****ty applications of it. Gotvhya, I hate the seasonal probability maps as they are almost never correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Was asking about euro cause there are peeps with subscriptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 18 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Also, in the regional weather page, why r we clumped together with PA? Doesn't make sense at all, and no wonder why ppl r confused as to where they should be posting. Tim went into the NE forum and asked, how much for KROC and ask him what they responded with. I don't even go into that forum as Id get banned in a heartbeat! split secong! I post in every subforum without getting banned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I post in every subforum without getting banned. No what I meant was, I would of gotten banned If I had reacted the way I wanted to after someone said, go to sleep Tiny Tim and dream of an apps runner and I almost lost it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 10 minutes ago, tim123 said: Was asking about euro cause there are peeps with subscriptions. Yeah well obviously you didnt see their response, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 On another note (while we wait for 0z) the gfs has a predominant WNW wind from thursday afternoon into sat night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 I did but didn't wanna burn my connection. I was upset too. But pick your battles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 One of my favorite ST Models, Canadian HRDPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Looks like a great setup for Orleans County to oswego for Lake snow. Next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 54 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Bro, diurnal simply means change in Temp throughout the course of the day, so I don't know where it fits within this event? Its a dynamically driven snow event with heavy precip being able to drop the BL temps low enough to support snow, otherwise we'd sse nothing but rain here which is usually the case, This is why I'm surprised that the Syracuse area is in the mix for heavier snows than most in the area. Bro, diurnal warming occurs in direct relationship to the angle at which the sun hits (and warms) the earth. At this time of year, we don't have to be concerned with it. So chillax a bit. We are all entitled to make our points, even if we don't have a meteorology degree. Lets have fun instead of scoring points or attacking one another. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 hour ago, Syrmax said: I think you are absolutely right here regarding evolution of things. So. ONT and the GTO have more in common with WNY/CNY wx except they rarely get LES so most of our LES discussions are pretty much N/A to them. VT is in New England obviously so posting in that forum is a good fit for them and it's way more active. I dont post a lot but I follow both the Great Lakes forum and this one. Toronto area is in a weird spot when posting. We have characteristics of both. A prime example is this storm, its going to impact the Toronto region with rain and a switch to wet snow. There won't be much discussion in the great lakes forum because they aren't being impacted. But when an apps runner goes pretty far west its mostly a rain storm for you guys (so a bit boring) and a big snowstorm for Toronto, Detroit, Ohio, ect.. so for those storms the great lakes forum is where I would be reading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Hey Dave. Long time no see. Looks to be a good second half of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 For Toronto I'm expecting 1-3 inches. This one has over performer written all over it in my mind. A switch over to snow a bit earlier or even a slight shift west could cause my area to all of a sudden be in the 4-6 inch range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 On East side of roc hoping for a solid 6 to 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 It has been a long time here in western ny for a big daddy. Way to long. I am talking widespread 2 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: It has been a long time here in western ny for a big daddy. Way to long. I am talking widespread 2 feet How did you manage on Valentine's Day 2007? I had two feet here in ENY and I think parts of CNY managed over 30, near Cherry Valley. I know Kroc jacked in some march storm several years back that went right up my fanny out this way. The exact date escapes me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 13 minutes ago, tim123 said: It has been a long time here in western ny for a big daddy. Way to long. I am talking widespread 2 feet Didn't the February 2010 "snowicane" plaster the area? I recall widespread 10-20 inches, although I wasn't up here yet. There was another nice synoptic storm in Feb 2011 that gave Ithaca 18 inches, and I think most of CNY cashed in on that one. Since then there really hasn't been much, although there have definitely been some synoptic storms that hit ROC and BUF pretty hard. EDIT: On review, the snowicane was more of an ENY/CNY storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 I want a Feb to March 3 day event that dropped 46 inches on rochester in 1900. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Big bust if the NAM is correct, looks pretty far east, precip hardly makes it to kroc..(up to hr 33) Without the heavy precip we mix.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Yup, not a pretty picture.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Big bust if the NAM is correct, looks pretty far east, precip hardly makes it to kroc..(up to hr 33) Without the heavy precip we mix.. Even further east here NAM pretty warm in the mid levels. I'd love to have this track in a normal January airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Still manage a few inches at the end.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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