BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 10-15 day timeframe looks warm after the cool down this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 18Z NAM was warmer and much less snow. Heaviest axis shifted east a bit. Hope it's a fluke run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I have no clue what to expect anymore lol 1 model gets warmer another goes colder..18z rgem below.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Nam ix straight garbage shifting around like it is nearly 24hrs at the start of an event! ggem scored a coup with this event and thats a fact! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Most model guidance has caved to where the GGEM was 3 days ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 56 minutes ago, phoenixny said: 18Z NAM was warmer and much less snow. Heaviest axis shifted east a bit. Hope it's a fluke run. Off hour runs are usually squirrelly...I put little stock in their output. Occasionally they can pick up on something but usually it's more noise than anything else. I'm thinking about 1.25" liquid around here, probably 1/3rd is Rain and the rest has some sleet contamination and low ratios, 9:1. I think my call usually was a bit low (1-3")...more likely we get 4-6" here in northern burbs with maybe 3" or so down on the concrete in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 18Z GFS wetter and colder as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 This becomes an isothermal snow bomb tomorrow evening throughout the night so I'm content with 6-8"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I guess we'll all find out Tuesday what happened and who busted and what not. Right now the South is getting bombarded with severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Looks like far WNY is pretty much out of the game on this one. BUF still stuck at 2.9" for January - how low can we go! OT for ongoing storm threat discussion....but yesterday was just surreal here. I played an entire 18-hole round of golf with a good amount of sun, no wind, and temps near 60. BUF is sitting over 5 degrees above normal for the month, following an AN December. Anyone that predicted a BN January in the Northeast, which was pretty much everyone I recall reading, is sitting on a huge bust. And all that talk in the fall about record-breaking Siberian snow cover and an upcoming -AO winter...last I heard we were at 87% positive AO for the winter. And the one I really like the most was the winter precip forecast from NOAA for the West Coast. Apparently all they're capable of doing is looking at the ENSO state and publishing a forecast based on that. The result, a winter forecast of drier than normal and continuation of the drought (http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-winter-outlook-predicts-warmer-drier-south-and-cooler-wetter-north). Er, how about strings of atmospheric rivers ripping through California for weeks on end, bringing stories of snow to the mountains, filling reservoirs to overflowing, and effectively ending most of the drought. You really can't take any forecast past about 10 days too seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 This a dead thread as I'm sick of posting with myself. The Title of the thread says nothing about CNY for some reason and only mentions LES???? Change it already to something relevant already as that stupid LES event was weeks ago!! Who moderates this sub forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Looks like far WNY is pretty much out of the game on this one. BUF still stuck at 2.9" for January - how low can we go! OT for ongoing storm threat discussion....but yesterday was just surreal here. I played an entire 18-hole round of golf with a good amount of sun, no wind, and temps near 60. BUF is sitting over 5 degrees above normal for the month, following an AN December. Anyone that predicted a BN January in the Northeast, which was pretty much everyone I recall reading, is sitting on a huge bust. And all that talk in the fall about record-breaking Siberian snow cover and an upcoming -AO winter...last I heard we were at 87% positive AO for the winter. And the one I really like the most was the winter precip forecast from NOAA for the West Coast. Apparently all they're capable of doing is looking at the ENSO state and publishing a forecast based on that. The result, a winter forecast of drier than normal and continuation of the drought (http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-winter-outlook-predicts-warmer-drier-south-and-cooler-wetter-north). Er, how about strings of atmospheric rivers ripping through California for weeks on end, bringing stories of snow to the mountains, filling reservoirs to overflowing, and effectively ending most of the drought. You really can't take any forecast past about 10 days too seriously. Good Post Bumble! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Lurking. I'll take synoptic over LES. My fave is hybrid. This is like a spring storm but with winter dynamics to work with- no diurnal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 38 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Looks like far WNY is pretty much out of the game on this one. BUF still stuck at 2.9" for January - how low can we go! OT for ongoing storm threat discussion....but yesterday was just surreal here. I played an entire 18-hole round of golf with a good amount of sun, no wind, and temps near 60. BUF is sitting over 5 degrees above normal for the month, following an AN December. Anyone that predicted a BN January in the Northeast, which was pretty much everyone I recall reading, is sitting on a huge bust. And all that talk in the fall about record-breaking Siberian snow cover and an upcoming -AO winter...last I heard we were at 87% positive AO for the winter. And the one I really like the most was the winter precip forecast from NOAA for the West Coast. Apparently all they're capable of doing is looking at the ENSO state and publishing a forecast based on that. The result, a winter forecast of drier than normal and continuation of the drought (http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-winter-outlook-predicts-warmer-drier-south-and-cooler-wetter-north). Er, how about strings of atmospheric rivers ripping through California for weeks on end, bringing stories of snow to the mountains, filling reservoirs to overflowing, and effectively ending most of the drought. You really can't take any forecast past about 10 days too seriously. Yeah there is no relationship between Siberian snow cover and cold winters. I think the real relationship is Canadian snow cover and cold Northeast Winters. Our source of cold air is Canada, not Siberia. Buffalos best winters are those in which a clipper regime is consistent. Swaying winds with LES and Lake Enhanced is where Buffalo cashes in the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 I will also say extremely high bust potential for this storm in Eastern New York with marginal temperatures and precip intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 37 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: This a dead thread as I'm sick of posting with myself. The Title of the thread says nothing about CNY for some reason and only mentions LES???? Change it already to something relevant already as that stupid LES event was weeks ago!! Who moderates this sub forum? Where were you in summer when I was talking about thunderstorms? I talked to myself for 4 straight months since I'm the only one who likes other weather around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 23 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: This a dead thread as I'm sick of posting with myself. The Title of the thread says nothing about CNY for some reason and only mentions LES???? Change it already to something relevant already as that stupid LES event was weeks ago!! Who moderates this sub forum? I think it has more to do with the largest impacts from this storm are more in your general area, with less (though still possibly substantial) in far WNY as well as ENY. Much of Upstate ENY saw less than 24" of snow last year and we're off to another historically slow start this year. I'm just over 20" for the season, and that's only because of a weenie band of snow on New Year's Eve. The fact is since we haven't had warning level snow here since February 2015, there hasnt been much us in ENY can post about. I do enjoy reading about the various lake effect events some of you have had this season however...I'm still a big fan of all weather even if it's not in my yard. I'm actually a little excited to see accumulating sleet here as it's so uncommon. Hopefully storms start hugging the coast more going forward so more of us this side of Upstate can contribute! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 This has nothing to do with the title of the thread, correct? Who cares about PA-VT-ONT CA as they all have sub forums. It should really just say WCNY Regional thread, simple as that. And as far as me posting in the Summer I don't, as Id rather be on my Yacht, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 hour ago, Syrmax said: Off hour runs are usually squirrelly...I put little stock in their output. Occasionally they can pick up on something but usually it's more noise than anything else. I'm thinking about 1.25" liquid around here, probably 1/3rd is Rain and the rest has some sleet contamination and low ratios, 9:1. I think my call usually was a bit low (1-3")...more likely we get 4-6" here in northern burbs with maybe 3" or so down on the concrete in the city. Totally agree. Will be a fun storm to watch. If we can flip to snow by 8 and models hold true with QPF then we accumulate. This has potential for 1 to 2" rates in deformation band. Looking forward to this as its been so boring but can't complain on the temps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Who posts in this thread from VT or PA or Ontario for that matter? if someone is gonna keep the thread's up to date then do so and not keep things for the end of December in the title of the thread. I'm not ragging on anyone in particular, so don't take it personal. We all post in here so I don't think one person should be responsible for new thread titles either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Who posts in this thread from VT or PA or Ontario for that matter? if someone is gonna keep the thread's up to date then do so and not keep things for the end of December in the title of the thread. I'm not ragging on anyone in particular, so don't take it personal. We all post in here so I don't think one person should be responsible for new thread titles either. Back on Eastern weather forum before we converted and American in its early days had Vermont/Southern Ontario as part of our region. I think we have been just carrying over that title since then. Technically our weather is more similar to Vermonts than Bostons is. They get comparable snowfall to us and are close to the Dacks which is in our viewing area. Same with Toronto/Hamilton, similar weather to Buffalo. I think posters from those areas stopped posting here because our thread was dead compared to the Great Lakes forum and SNE forum. If you go back to the first threads in this region you can see there are plenty of different posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 The true problem is, there's no moderator to delete threads 1200 pages long or at least archive them, no? Maybe I'm wrong but bank to the WX. Apologies about the OT stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Back on Eastern weather forum before we converted and American in its early days had Vermont/Southern Ontario as part of our region. I think we have been just carrying over that title since then. Understood BuffaloWX, so lets do something about it and change it to WNY-CNY LES and Synoptic events! Or come up with something more appealing, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said: Who posts in this thread from VT or PA or Ontario for that matter? if someone is gonna keep the thread's up to date then do so and not keep things for the end of December in the title of the thread. I'm not ragging on anyone in particular, so don't take it personal. We all post in here so I don't think one person should be responsible for new thread titles either. We used to have one or two post from Quebec, but I see your point. As it is, where I am (near Saratoga Springs), I sometimes have no idea where I should post. I'm clearly Upstate, but I'm not downwind of any lake (I am guessing that may be how someone from Elmira may feel in CNY). I guess I could group myself with Western New England, but I don't usually feel right posting in NE either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 Maybe we can just change it to New York State? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 59 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Looks like far WNY is pretty much out of the game on this one. BUF still stuck at 2.9" for January - how low can we go! OT for ongoing storm threat discussion....but yesterday was just surreal here. I played an entire 18-hole round of golf with a good amount of sun, no wind, and temps near 60. BUF is sitting over 5 degrees above normal for the month, following an AN December. Anyone that predicted a BN January in the Northeast, which was pretty much everyone I recall reading, is sitting on a huge bust. And all that talk in the fall about record-breaking Siberian snow cover and an upcoming -AO winter...last I heard we were at 87% positive AO for the winter. And the one I really like the most was the winter precip forecast from NOAA for the West Coast. Apparently all they're capable of doing is looking at the ENSO state and publishing a forecast based on that. The result, a winter forecast of drier than normal and continuation of the drought (http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-winter-outlook-predicts-warmer-drier-south-and-cooler-wetter-north). Er, how about strings of atmospheric rivers ripping through California for weeks on end, bringing stories of snow to the mountains, filling reservoirs to overflowing, and effectively ending most of the drought. You really can't take any forecast past about 10 days too seriously. Very good post! Spot on. Seasonal forecasts are some of the biggest time wasters ever, other than there's some virtue I going thru the process of studying various atmospheric and oceanic cycles / factors. We shall see what Feb and March yield... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Maybe we can just change it to New York State? Maybe just "upstate" NY? We usually have nothing similar with NYC and LI in terms of wx, most of the time and they have their subforum. Of course "upstate" is in the eye of the beholder but most people generally know what that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: Maybe just "upstate" NY? We usually have nothing similar with NYC and LI in terms of wx, most of the time and they have their subforum. Of course "upstate" is in the eye of the beholder but most people generally know what that is. Was thinking Upstate/Eastern New York? Will start a new thread soon for storm tomorrow and possible LES this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Back on Eastern weather forum before we converted and American in its early days had Vermont/Southern Ontario as part of our region. I think we have been just carrying over that title since then. Technically our weather is more similar to Vermonts than Bostons is. They get comparable snowfall to us and are close to the Dacks which is in our viewing area. Same with Toronto/Hamilton, similar weather to Buffalo. I think posters from those areas stopped posting here because our thread was dead compared to the Great Lakes forum and SNE forum. If you go back to the first threads in this region you can see there are plenty of different posters. I think you are absolutely right here regarding evolution of things. So. ONT and the GTO have more in common with WNY/CNY wx except they rarely get LES so most of our LES discussions are pretty much N/A to them. VT is in New England obviously so posting in that forum is a good fit for them and it's way more active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.