CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Event will likely turn out to be a winter weather advisory for parts of the area. lol, KBGM's this mornings discussion and I think their dead wrong! Euro came in much colder than yesterdays 12Z. Their blending those 3 globals GFS-GGEM and Euro together and they somehow come up with 2-4"??? This will most likely change later today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 This will straight up bust for the whole CWA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 This will straight up bust for the whole CWA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Look at this other hilarious map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Kbuf didn't even mention the euro.. Our first cut at storm totals range from 4-6 inches across lower elevations of the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes and portions of the eastern Lake Ontario region, with higher amounts of up to 8 inches across the highest terrain. These numbers will likely change in both amount and location as model guidance converges on a common solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Forecast is definitely more wintry then this time yesterday.. Monday Night Snow and sleet, becoming all snow after 10pm. Low around 32. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 All about the precip rates Model guidance continues to show the system capturing an area of slightly colder air from the airmass associated with the surface high over eastern Quebec. This, combined with cooling from evaporation, melting, and strong ascent, will force the column to become isothermal near or just below the freezing mark once the heavier precip begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 A clear trend colder on the NAM! 12z top, 6z bottom.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 So I guess nws in Buffalo is waiting for snow to start falling to Issue a watch for roc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I don't even think watches will be issued. they would of been issued already as were 24hrs out from the system affecting us so....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 i don't even bother with them anymore, watches or warnings and esp advisories! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Meanwhile jb sind current storm analog is March 28 1984. High risk severe weather in GA flash. Don't think I have ever seen that in January anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 There are no watches up anywhere. not even up in the Adirondacks. Something isn't right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Its a damn good one thats for sure. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1984/us0329.php the link is better as you can scroll through the times. Is is almost identical to the evolution of the current system!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 What was snowfall like in West Central ny for that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Have to watch this one carefully. This track normally produces heavy snow along the I-81 corrider. Heaviest precip falls at night which will help with accumulations. Could be some huge dendrites and 1" + per hour snowfall rates if we can flip. See what GFS says next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Wow, latest GFS slams CNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxNoob said: Wow, latest GFS slams CNY Big time. I do think they hoist watches if Euro holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 These types of setups seem to generally under perform [i.e. 40s and rain ending as 20s/30s and snow] as it seems the transition usually ends up taking longer save perhaps the high terrain. That said, hard to ignore the 24-36 hour trends in the modeling for this one esp. since the GFS which had been the warmest/wettest solution seems to have done a 180 over the last 24-36 hours with a wet snow bomb across Finger Lakes and CNY. One thing that appears to be helping the cause is that the models - atleast in CNY - appear to be delaying the arrival of the precip to later Monday afternoon which is giving the cold air an extra few hours to settle in ahead. BGM put out an enhanced worded FB post for the possibility of a "major winter storm" a few hours ago but no update to the HWO or AFD yet this morning. Suspect we will see some drastic changes to the forecasts across the region with the afternoon update... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 High risk for tornados in Florida, don't think I've ever seen that especially in January. Torcon of 9 first time since 2011 I believe. Going to be absolutely insane down there today. Also Feb is starting to look warmer with a PAC dominated flow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Mixed precip galore on the 3km NAM for WNY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: High risk for tornados in Florida, don't think I've ever seen that especially in January. Torcon of 9 first time since 2011 I believe. Going to be absolutely insane down there today. Also Feb is starting to look warmer with a PAC dominated flow again. I keep looking at those 10mb height maps and that damm PV just keeps pinwheeling and won't budge lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 20 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: I keep looking at those 10mb height maps and that damm PV just keeps pinwheeling and won't budge lol.. Did a SST actually occur or not? If so, how strong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 Don't think I have ever seen a PDS box with these probabilities, insane! Reduced: 77% of original size [ 525 x 459 ] - Click to view full image TornadoesProbability of 2 or more tornadoes High (90%)Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoesHigh (90%)WindProbability of 10 or more severe wind eventsHigh (90%)Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knotsHigh (90%)HailProbability of 10 or more severe hail eventsHigh (90%)Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inchesHigh (90%)Combined Severe Hail/WindProbability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind eventsHigh (>95%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Winter Storm Watches have been posted in north central PA which was all but assuredly the result of a collaberative discussion with probably at least BUF and BGM. Suspect we will being seeing the same shortly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 and parts of Western NY and Lake Ontario region. 6 to 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Still thinking a decent amount of IP here. I have no idea if the NWS has limits for sleet accumulation for advisories, watches, warnings,etc. My guess is no, and they would want frz rain or SN to verify their criteria, which isn't going to happen here (still possible further west, especially with elevation). We will also need to see if a strong easterly flow develops back this way, which may dry out parts of the area west of the Greens. It takes a strong flow to do it, but this may be one of those times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Finally a watch for rochester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Why such a huge difference between 12 km nam and 3km nam. 12 km gives roc 3 3 km give 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.