DeltaT13 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 10 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Not for nothing but I wouldn't listen to a word KBUF says as far as synoptic systems are concerned. I would look more at KBGM's discussions but thats just me. They see one run that shifts a bit to the East and thats it, were toast. Its not like it can come back right? This is why I dont even read their discussions when it comes to actual storm systems! Oh come on man, KBuf is one of the better NWS offices in the country. I do agree they latch onto single runs sometimes and discount the potential for change but overall they do a fine job. Lets not get all pouty just because we are having a ****ty run of winter here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Hard to get too excited for snowfall just yet, for next week. 850 T's look a bit warm for a general areawide snowfall. Could be more of an elevation/dynamic driven snowfall, at best. A ways to go to be able to home in on where / how much precip will fall but i don't see a good source of cold air until after the storm departs. So my guess is instead of mild 40s and rain, most of us will see raw 30s and rain transitioning to a mix of junk maybe ending as snow. Looks colder for LES up on the Tug and the Chautauqua ridge after the storm at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Elevation dependent storms in Mid January just sound stupid, seriously! Yeah I guess people up at 800ft will see more than us idiots at 450ft, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 12 GFS certainly comes back West and is very wet. Unfortunately with that comes warmer boundary layer temps. Looks like a real raw heavy rain event taking shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 We snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Finger Lakes East gets a pounding while areas to the West get Nada and areas to our East get rn. Will it stay this way, nah, but it is getting closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 I'll ride the Euro for now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 You may want to ride the Canadian lol Euro is much warmer then last nights runs and much less precipitation, cuse sees 2" of snow on about 0.4" of liquid.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Dont really concern myself with surface predictions and precip output as much as I do the mid lvls and they all look good to these eyes so we'll see. If we can squeeze out 3" in an otherwise thaw, to me that's a win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Getting excited about South Shore next weekend on. Cmc and gfs show a prolonged les event. Niagara to sw oswego County including rochester. Models have been showing this for a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 This is beautiful.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Nice hit on euro. Anyone got snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Definitely a trend colder on the 0z Gfs..Euro also drops temps quick, 850 temps drop from +3c to -4c in 6 hrs while dropping over 1/2" of liquid then we see another 0.6" or so of precip.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 We Snow Wolfie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 GFS came in a bit chillier and corrected itself back East so there is a very nice consensus now among globals on the track, but there still remains precip type issues especially at lower elevations, only early. and then its blast off but either way, elevation is gonna help even as much as 1kft can make all the difference in the world. But anyway, by 00z Tuesday all bets are off and probably a bit sooner with the changeover as this looks to become an isothermal bomb, so it looks like a rain to a pounding heavy snow, with ratios probably 8-1 so its gonna be a heavy wet snow for shovelers. a couple of frames of the sounding from KSYR 00Z Tuesday but then 6hrs later it looks like this: The first image is straight dynamically induced snow as in that 6hr period it prolly snows a good 4-6" then as you see it lets up, and rain starts to mix back in. So basically, were dealing with an airmass that's really not conducive for a snowfall but during certain periods, the precip falls so heavily that it changes it over to a thumping snow. That HP to our North has to get more involved but for some reason its not so that may change as we are still days away so there is a nice chance to see an actual synoptic snowfall. its been a while but Im not going all in just yet. After tomorrows 12Z output if its showing this or something better than I'll be all smiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 We can only imagine such maps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Joe bastardi did say 1993 was a analog for Feb March this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Meso models hammer Genesee Valley east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 12z NAM and hi res NAM both shifted quite a bit west. Pounds WNY especially the higher terrain S of Buffalo and Rochester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2017 Author Share Posted January 21, 2017 It's 60 and sunny out right now, absolutely loving it. Give me a decent Feb and I'm ready for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2017 Author Share Posted January 21, 2017 5 hours ago, tim123 said: Joe bastardi did say 1993 was a analog for Feb March this year. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Not for this storm but for pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2017 Author Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Not for this storm but for pattern This is what Joes maps look like every year. He's terrible. The more he talks about winter weather coming, the more followers and publicity he gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: It's 60 and sunny out right now, absolutely loving it. Give me a decent Feb and I'm ready for spring. Better enjoy it big changes incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 On 1/20/2017 at 9:23 AM, DeltaT13 said: Oh come on man, KBuf is one of the better NWS offices in the country. I do agree they latch onto single runs sometimes and discount the potential for change but overall they do a fine job. Lets not get all pouty just because we are having a ****ty run of winter here. So much for flip flopping now they might have to issue some watches... high end advisory type snowfall possible per latest model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 KBUF isn't issuing anything but an HWO which will say nothing about this system, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Stop forgetting this is Monday Night into Tuesday system so there is plenty of time before anyone puts up anything close to a watch, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 6 to 12 on 12km nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 2 hours ago, tim123 said: 6 to 12 on 12km nam Did you check the sounding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 On the surface the 18z gfs was one of the better runs so far..1.3" of precip over a 12 hour period, according to "weatherbell" the initial 0.4" is rain and 0.9" is snow..Looks like this will be another nowcasting event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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