DeltaT13 Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Mt Ranier puts up some big numbers sometimes. This one for Monday into Tuesday is particularly impressive. 124 inches forecast in about 30 hours. Monday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 15. Windy, with a southwest wind 24 to 33 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 34 to 40 inches possible. Tuesday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 21. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 35 to 41 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 9. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 37 to 43 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Looking as ugly as it can possible get for the next 7-10 days in terms of any cold/snow. At the midpoint of January, BUF is sitting at a paltry 2.9 inches of snow for the month. Long range models have no snow accumulation for BUF through 1/25. Lots of talk about a pattern change near the end of the month (how can't it change at that point?), so maybe we can rally and get into double digits. The lowest January snowfall total I could find for BUF was 3.4" in the great winter of 1943/44. Getting another 0.6" to pass that stellar month could sadly be a challenge... BUF has some interesting notes about the overall pattern and long range, complete with a hint of heavy rain after next weekend... .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... There is very high confidence that temperatures will average well above normal across our forecast area during this period...and for that matter...into the final days of the month. An unusually strong 190kt H25 Pacific East Asian jet will continue to help flood the Lower 48 with Pacific modified air. This powerful jet will be a product of a highly anomalous tropical ridge centered near the Hawaiian Islands and a closed low that has been persistent over Alaska. For what its worth...a collection of ensembles even suggests that the strength of the Hawaiian ridge has a once in a generation return interval for this time of year. This overlying pattern will keep a split flow in place over North America...where a dominate sub tropical jet will be part of amplifying ridge over the eastern third of the country. While this impressive ridge will support very mild and relatively benign weather for our region through this time frame...there will come a time when the proverbial pendulum is going to swing the other way. That will come as we come out of the weekend when the much discussed ridge will move to our east. A gaping...wide open Gulf ahead of a dynamic negatively tilted trough will then set the stage for what could be a very rainy event for our region later Monday into Tuesday...but that is getting a little ahead of ourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 14 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Looking as ugly as it can possible get for the next 7-10 days in terms of any cold/snow. At the midpoint of January, BUF is sitting at a paltry 2.9 inches of snow for the month. Long range models have no snow accumulation for BUF through 1/25. Lots of talk about a pattern change near the end of the month (how can't it change at that point?), so maybe we can rally and get into double digits. The lowest January snowfall total I could find for BUF was 3.4" in the great winter of 1943/44. Getting another 0.6" to pass that stellar month could sadly be a challenge... BUF has some interesting notes about the overall pattern and long range, complete with a hint of heavy rain after next weekend... .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... There is very high confidence that temperatures will average well above normal across our forecast area during this period...and for that matter...into the final days of the month. An unusually strong 190kt H25 Pacific East Asian jet will continue to help flood the Lower 48 with Pacific modified air. This powerful jet will be a product of a highly anomalous tropical ridge centered near the Hawaiian Islands and a closed low that has been persistent over Alaska. For what its worth...a collection of ensembles even suggests that the strength of the Hawaiian ridge has a once in a generation return interval for this time of year. This overlying pattern will keep a split flow in place over North America...where a dominate sub tropical jet will be part of amplifying ridge over the eastern third of the country. While this impressive ridge will support very mild and relatively benign weather for our region through this time frame...there will come a time when the proverbial pendulum is going to swing the other way. That will come as we come out of the weekend when the much discussed ridge will move to our east. A gaping...wide open Gulf ahead of a dynamic negatively tilted trough will then set the stage for what could be a very rainy event for our region later Monday into Tuesday...but that is getting a little ahead of ourselves. While we will experience some anomalous warmth the next two weeks, things are certainly looking encouraging for the long range. Models have the -EPO return with also a +PNA ridge at the end of the month, there is also an ongoing SSW that's suppose to peak at the end of the month but we won't see its effects right away usually there is two weeks lag time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Yes please. Mt. Rainer: Today Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 13. Wind chill values between -8 and -16. Windy, with a south southwest wind 25 to 33 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 25 to 31 inches possible. Tonight Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 10. Wind chill values between -8 and -13. Windy, with a south southwest wind 29 to 36 mph, with gusts as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 37 to 43 inches possible. Wednesday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to near 19 by 10am, then falling to around 8 during the remainder of the day. Wind chill values between -4 and -14. Windy, with a south southwest wind 46 to 48 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 37 to 43 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 0. Wind chill values between -13 and -22. Breezy, with a southwest wind 24 to 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 14 to 20 inches possible. Thursday Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 8. Breezy, with a southwest wind 25 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around -1. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Friday Snow showers likely. Cloudy and cold, with a high near 7. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 This is from April January 15. She's wide open... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 BUF is at 33.9 inches for the season, so about 16 inches below normal. Unless we get something in that narrow window at the end of the month, we'll be almost 28 inches below normal at the end of January. Hoping for a good February, or this will be the fourth season out of the last six when we ended up with less than 60 inches of snowfall, which would be by far the worst period since records have been kept. I'm hoping the mild spell and open lake give us a better shot at some snow next month, but a relatively open lake didn't help much in past snowfall droughts. If the pattern isn't there, it isn't there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 While there is virtually nothing to talk about on here I will at least mention that I got a couple flashes of lightning with huge claps of thunder this morning. Just your typical January day in Upstate NY......lolz. What a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 32 minutes ago, WNash said: BUF is at 33.9 inches for the season, so about 16 inches below normal. Unless we get something in that narrow window at the end of the month, we'll be almost 28 inches below normal at the end of January. Hoping for a good February, or this will be the fourth season out of the last six when we ended up with less than 60 inches of snowfall, which would be by far the worst period since records have been kept. I'm hoping the mild spell and open lake give us a better shot at some snow next month, but a relatively open lake didn't help much in past snowfall droughts. If the pattern isn't there, it isn't there. Exactly! Open lake in Feb/Mar is useless when we have days and days of south winds, temps over 40, etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 hour ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Exactly! Open lake in Feb/Mar is useless when we have days and days of south winds, temps over 40, etc.... On the other hand, I expect that the lake temp at Buffalo may be able to bounce back up to 36F or higher - and in 2007, after a mediocre Dec-Jan, there was a monster February. 1995 seems to have had a decent February after a warm January. So crossing fingers we will (a) get a genuine sustained pattern change and (b) have some favorable SW headings for Buffalo metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2017 Author Share Posted January 17, 2017 Take this all with a grain of salt because of how far its out there. But we most likely see a pattern change around the 27th/28th that last a few weeks into Feb. Finally get a +PNA which usually bodes well for Consistent eastern troughing. ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4indices.png https://twitter.com/MJVentrice?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author https://twitter.com/MJVentrice?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author Take this all with a grain of salt because of how far its out there. But we most likely see a pattern change around the 27th/28th that last a few weeks into Feb. Finally get a -EPO and +PNA which usually bodes well for Consistent eastern troughing. https://twitter.com/MJVentrice?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author https://twitter.com/MJVentrice?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Rain,rain,rain,rain----- Cold with flurries for few days then----- rain,rain,rain and more rain! What a disgusting season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 I don't believe anything in the longer range! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2017 Author Share Posted January 18, 2017 I'll take the 50s and sunny this weekend, going for a nice run or bike ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I'll take the 50s and sunny this weekend, going for a nice run or bike ride. I actually have a tee time for Saturday morning. Terry Hills in Batavia is open, and I've heard a few others in the area might open this weekend too. Nothing like January golf in western NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Yeah, I know posting a 240-hour snowfall map from any model is lame...but at least there's a glimmer of hope that snow actually has a chance to fly at some point in W/CNY in the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Day 5-6 (Monday Tuesday) on the 12z GFS is intriguing Temperature profiles look very close to freezing with the potential for sloppy elevation snow or maybe even ice in the North Country. That anomalously deep storm will be slowly crashing into that arctic high, finally something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 kbuf The change to unsettled conditions will begin Sunday night...as a deep feed of Atlantic moisture will stream across our area ahead of the deep closed low over the Deep South. The forecast track of the lumbering stacked storm system is further east than previous guidance packages...as the general track is now favoring a track up the east side of the Appalachians rather than the continental side. While this is not expected to change the pops much in the following periods...it could significantly affect the type of pcpn. That being said...the weekend will end with some rain overspreading the western counties during the course of Sunday night. Pops for the overnight will range from slight chc east of Lake Ontario...to likely across the Western Southern Tier. the various guidance packages have introduced some uncertainty as to the precipitation type. In a nut shell...there has been a trend by the ensemble packages to track the stacked storm system up along the east side of the Appalachians rather than the west side. This has led to a `colder` solution...which for some ensemble members...translates into at least the chance for some snow...if not accumulating snow. Have tried to stay the course with continuity and the somewhat rainier solution to avoid `flip flopping`...but have added the mention of snow as a means of half stepping until there is increased run to run model consistency. The rain will continue across the region Monday night into Tuesday...as the storm system will track north-northeast across New England. This is when things could get interesting. Because of the more eastward track...colder air will be able to work in behind the parent low. As mentioned...the air could be cold enough to allow for a transition to wet snow...especially across the higher terrain. In a worst case scenario...the snow would change over at a point where significant accumulations could occur. While this has the lowest chance for verifying at this point...there is a clear trend towards the event being colder. Have thus added at least the mention for some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Gem and euro both show snow events for the 24th (4"+, more east) and then the "potential " for plenty of lake effect south and east of Ontario in the longer range.... Gfs still on the warmish side.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Hwo SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS LOW. POSSIBILITIES RANGE FROM A COLD RAIN EVENT FOR THE AREA TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS... ALTHOUGH THE LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW. KEEP TRACK OF THE LATEST FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING IMPACTS TO THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 4 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Hwo SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS LOW. POSSIBILITIES RANGE FROM A COLD RAIN EVENT FOR THE AREA TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS... ALTHOUGH THE LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW. KEEP TRACK OF THE LATEST FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING IMPACTS TO THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. Go dynamic cooling!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Sad trombone Quote The 12Z GFS run has shifted the deformation zone on the western periphery of the coastal low sharply to the east, and now keeps the bulk of the forecast area largely dry, with the exception the eastern edges of the area. The 12Z ECMWF/GEM models still attempt to bring a trowal across the heart of the forecast area late Monday into Monday night, but shunt this feature northwards into Canada by Tuesday morning. Model profiles do continue to suggest a changeover to snow, so if the ECMWF/GEM solutions verify, we could see a widespread accumulation of several inches of snow from the Genesee valley east, however confidence in this remains low at this time - particularly given that the precipitation associated with these strong coastal lows tends to be focused more to the east of our forecast area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 When was the last time us that are in CNY had a significant snow fall other than LES? If it wasn't for LES we wouldn't get anything for snow around here the last few year's. This winter has been pathetic. So glad i have a $12,000 snowmobile in the garage i can't ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 hour ago, Revracer800 said: When was the last time us that are in CNY had a significant snow fall other than LES? If it wasn't for LES we wouldn't get anything for snow around here the last few year's. This winter has been pathetic. So glad i have a $12,000 snowmobile in the garage i can't ride. Sucks big time! Sleds will be new next year as well. Two years in a row of zero to very little riding south/southeast of Lake Ontario. Rode three times around here last year and zero so far this year. May be able to salvage three or four weeks in Feb. if weather cooperates but not counting on it. Winter grade gets a F/D- so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 I myself am content with 80" in the middle of January, but that's just me lol At least it looks like all/mostly snow now, euro still delivers the goods, we'll see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 I have not been on a local trail since 14/15 season and that was only a handful of times. Last year i rode the Tug twice and that was it. I have not been able to ride this year at all. We had rideable snow around here last month but during hunting season so trails were closed. Very very frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Not for nothing but I wouldn't listen to a word KBUF says as far as synoptic systems are concerned. I would look more at KBGM's discussions but thats just me. They see one run that shifts a bit to the East and thats it, were toast. Its not like it can come back right? This is why I dont even read their discussions when it comes to actual storm systems! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Gem has plenty of precipitation but clown maps only show 4" because surface is 34/35 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Euro has even more precipitation then the Canadian and its colder at the surface..Almost a footer into Fulton.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Gfs now has some meaningful precipitation here, now we just need some cold lol The euro is 1.1" LE all snow and Gfs 1.5" LE all rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 kbuf The focus remains on early next week as a large low pressure system is set to churn up the east coast and bring unsettled weather to the forecast area. There remains plenty of uncertainty with this system with regard to the track and even precipitation type, however there remains the potential for a portion of the forecast area to see significant snow accumulations. With the 00Z model runs this morning, the GFS has maintained fairly close where it ended up yesterday after trending eastward. The ECMWF, which also trended eastward yesterday, has actually trended back to the west with the 00Z run this morning. Despite the GFS maintaining the more eastern track, more of its ensemble members are showing the potential for significant snowfall into the eastern half of the forecast area. This trend in the GEFS matches well with the 00Z EC trend back to the west, as well as with the top matches from the CIPS analogs. Speaking of the analogs, there weren`t a lot of great matches for this storm, but a couple of the best matches brought significant snows through central NY and eastern portions of the forecast area. Long story short: we are not out of the woods on the potential for significant snowfall across a portion of our forecast area, although as of now it appears the best chance is probably from near the Finger Lakes eastward into central NY. With respect to precipitation type, despite the overall marginal airmass associated with this storm system, it appears dynamically cooling and precipitation rates in the deformation band (wherever it sets up) would be plenty to support accumulating snow. West of that deformation band, any snowfall amounts would drop off quite sharply A large pattern change appears to be on track in the wake of this storm system. A large trough beginning to carve out across the CONUS by midweek, with a leading wave pushing through the Great Lakes across southern Ontario province by Wednesday into Thursday. This will bring some rain and snow showers across the region, with some lake and upslope enhancement. The real interesting time period comes toward the end of the week as colder air floods into the region as the large trough spins east of the Hudson Bay, which will start to ramp up lake effect snows off of the lower Great Lakes. Global models are in good agreement that a secondary colder shot of arctic sourced air then surges into the region by the end of month with continued (possibly significant) lake effect snows. KBUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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