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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Winter!


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10 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Funny cause ur 5 minutes north of me CNY_WX, but its movin in fast that's for sure!
Delta, I love mayhem as well but I have wife on the road at rush hour and I don't want a phone call saying, I'm in ditch call AAA, lol as its happened way too many times, lol!!

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 

About an hour ago I left Wegmans in Cicero and drove home, about 5 miles north. It was mainly sleet and ZR when I left Wegmans and 29 on my car thermometer. When I got home it was predominantly snow and the temperature had dropped to 27. 

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No good mechanism for Syracuse and the rest of the Lake plains to trap cold air in right now as winds are howling out of the south. A few hi res models changeover well after rush hour but the HRRR was much quicker last time I checked. Was thinking right around 5pm it transitions to plain rain but hopefully it's a little sooner. 

 

I was happy to see a lot of schools let out at 1 today. School buses and reckless teenagers driving on ice is not a good combination. 

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57 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Getting some lovely freezing drizzle, temp at 29.9...

 

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Hope you don't have to go anywhere until that ice can melt. One thing I hate is having to scrape freezing rain off a car. I usually start the car and let it warm up to melt the windows. 

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Looks like we will end up with close to 1/4" of ZR if my rain gauge is at all correct and radar trends hold.  A bit more than the trivial amts forecasted (< 1/10") but shouldn't cause power problems, not sure on the hills where winds are higher.  Side roads very sketchy but main arteries basically ok though some spots a bit iffy. Up to 30.7...about a degree increase in last two hours.

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7 hours ago, AppsRunner said:

No good mechanism for Syracuse and the rest of the Lake plains to trap cold air in right now as winds are howling out of the south. A few hi res models changeover well after rush hour but the HRRR was much quicker last time I checked. Was thinking right around 5pm it transitions to plain rain but hopefully it's a little sooner. 

 

I was happy to see a lot of schools let out at 1 today. School buses and reckless teenagers driving on ice is not a good combination. 

Guess a middle ground was the best option. Temps really struggle to rise today, but thankfully will continue through the night. Hopefully main roads weren't too bad. 

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I was up in the Lake Placid area since Sunday.  Experienced deep winter and spring over the course of 4 days....Trip up on Sunday featured a run through a surprisingly long lake effect band down the 90 from just west of Roc to about Waterloo.  Tough driving, 2"/hour stuff at least.  Rest of the drive was squally with temps no higher than 10 degrees.  Snow cover looked super deep from about Parish on 81, up through Watertown, and all the way down Rt. 3 to Cranberry Lake.  Hiked up Catamount Mt. on Monday morning, temps between -5 and 5 above.  Quick burst of snow Tuesday night, 4-6" accumulation.  Then spring came...hiked up Mt. Van Hovenberg on Wednesday with temps pushing 45 and sun.  Drive home today was polar opposite of drive up...periods of rain and temps in the 50's.  Mountain areas were holding onto snow pack, but surprised to see a lot of bare spots already emerging all the way down 81. And of course bare ground from Cuse to Buf.  A few photos below: 1 - daughter huffing it up Catamount, just above treeline; 2 - view from south summit of Catamount, facing southwest; 3 - view from Hart Lake at sunset.

 

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17 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

I was up in the Lake Placid area since Sunday.  Experienced deep winter and spring over the course of 4 days....Trip up on Sunday featured a run through a surprisingly long lake effect band down the 90 from just west of Roc to about Waterloo.  Tough driving, 2"/hour stuff at least.  Rest of the drive was squally with temps no higher than 10 degrees.  Snow cover looked super deep from about Parish on 81, up through Watertown, and all the way down Rt. 3 to Cranberry Lake.  Hiked up Catamount Mt. on Monday morning, temps between -5 and 5 above.  Quick burst of snow Tuesday night, 4-6" accumulation.  Then spring came...hiked up Mt. Van Hovenberg on Wednesday with temps pushing 45 and sun.  Drive home today was polar opposite of drive up...periods of rain and temps in the 50's.  Mountain areas were holding onto snow pack, but surprised to see a lot of bare spots already emerging all the way down 81. And of course bare ground from Cuse to Buf.  A few photos below: 1 - daughter huffing it up Catamount, just above treeline; 2 - view from south summit of Catamount, facing southwest; 3 - view from Hart Lake at sunset.

 

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Nice pics man meanwhile big changes incoming for the long range...

 

gfs_Tz10_nhem_33.png

 

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The very tail end of the latest GFS run certainly shows a promising change to an amplified pattern and a return to winter.

From the NWS:

.CLIMATE...
The main story for next week and beyond will be the extended
period of above normal temperatures not only in our region, but
for much of the eastern 2/3 of the nation. Over the next two
weeks, a strong closed low will remain parked over the Bering
Straits, forcing a strong Pacific East Asian jet to extend farther
east than normal. This will continue to bring a parade of Pacific
systems into the western United States, while also supporting
zonal flow and a flat ridge downstream across the central and
eastern part of the country. The westerly flow across the
continent will support strong Chinook warming off the Rockies,
with warmth spreading to the east coast and even well north into
southern and central Canada.

The warmth will last for another 12 days or so, but there is a
significant pattern change brewing beyond that. A Sudden
Stratospheric Warming event has just occurred in the northern
hemisphere. These events occur when planetary waves propagate
vertically into the stratosphere, with wave breaking and dampening
processes acting to rapidly warm the stratosphere over the high
latitudes and greatly distort the Stratospheric Polar Vortex.

This warming and disruption in the stratosphere has been shown in
numerous studies to slowly feed back into the troposphere, with a
strong tendency for high latitude blocking to increase about 2
weeks after the warming takes place. High latitude blocking
increases the ability of polar air to spread southward into the
mid latitudes, and increases the chances of cold and wintry
weather locking in for a longer period of time.

It appears the long range guidance is beginning to capture this
idea, with the GEFS and NAEFS ensembles suggesting a more highly
amplified flow starting late this month, with a ridge developing
over Alaska and the West Coast while a deep longwave trough
begins to establish across central and eastern North America. The
developing ridge in Alaska may also promote a period of cross
polar flow, draining frigid Siberian air into northern Canada.
GEFS ensembles also support a more negative NAO and AO pattern
towards the end of the month. Putting all this together, it
appears the pattern should become much colder and more wintry
around January 25-27. Past stratospheric warming events suggest
this cold pattern may last for quite some time, and may support
the potential for periods of well below normal temperatures by the
end of the month and first half of February. Stay tuned.
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