BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1-3' Feet off Erie, 3-5' off Ontario. Should be a fun one to track! http://www.weather.gov/buf/stormtotalsnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phillifan22 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Here's my attempt at forecasting this event. Some of these snowfall gradients could be very impressive off Ontario! Biggest impact on southern Oswego/N. Oneida will be how the band sets up Friday. 12Z guidance is all over with it, but high-res products are placing it over Oswego-Parish for several hours Friday afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 12 NAM trends north tomorrow! Puts that band right over the metro for several hours! Game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Absolutely crushing snow in OP. Prob a solid 1 1/2 - 2" an hour. Based on radar won't last very long but with how it's snowing it's easy to see how where this band off Erie does set up later how 2-3' will fall pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 That 3km Nam is the only model that brings the band all the way up to the city for tomorrow so we shall see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: That 3km Nam is the only model that brings the band all the way up to the city for tomorrow so we shall see.. Yeah I'm extremely hesitant about the band making it up to the city. I could see the very northern edge scraping Lackawanna to West Seneca. Think Hamburg and OP will get a good pounding tomorrow for a while. Could see southern parts of Hamburg and OP out to EA getting a quick foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I suppose this is the new thread?Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 BUF metro now under warning as well. That bullseye keeps getting larger and larger each update... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Buffalo, tomorrow evening, will be getting crushed by that band, before it heads back South but some remain skeptical as I would as well. It's pretty certain that KBUF sees something during this long drawn out WSW-SW flow event and if it doesn't, we'll then I wouldn't know what to say, lol!!Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Curiously, BUF has shifted pretty far to the north as the 3k/4k NAM shifts south Friday/Saturday into Oswego county. 18z runs had over an inch of QPF for much of Oswego county, with very little for Watertown. The NAM is pretty much a due west flow for a few days, and the RGEM has the band not getting south of Sandy Creek. Watch the system off the coast for more help... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 18z 3km nam trended south with that band, it barely makes it to the airport so you could say I'm doubtful on that 6-12" BUF is calling for.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 One week late for me.. Boy this would have been fun to watch from the cabin in Redfield.. Guess I will just have to watch this with you guys on this board. Big totals coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Another big shift for Erie totals. Not sure downtown to the airport is going to get into the action but will be a close call for South Buffalo to Lancaster to Alden. Eastern burbs might make out pretty good on this one looking at the 18WRF. Should be a fun day tomorrow tracking this band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 0zNAM3k knocks on the door but just doesn't slide into the metro. Looks like a good hit right along Route 20 Hamburg OP West Seneca. Timing again will be the issue with the evening commute. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAIDEsNow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Ripping pretty good out, probably close to 2" per hour. Closing in on 6" for event thus far - would seem CLE is going to bust way low for our forecast totals here in NWPA...one can hope. Side note, I may be moving into Chautauqua county. Looking at a nice place just north of Sherman on 50 plus acres (think its on the Ridge, elevation of 1600') - love the area. Just going to have to deal with a longer commute, but the place seems worth it. Will be thrilled to see my annual snowfall jump as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 My buddies house in Colden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Damm BTV's WRF goes to town with that band over the city for tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 35 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: My buddies house in Colden. That's about 10 inches of snow. Not bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 That Erie band is starting to look healthy maybe even slightly shifting northward on the last couple of frames.. winds are due SW upstream on CLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Wow the Perrysburg spotter is already reporting 22" as of 7am!The Erie band is looking real good this morning. Should be some good totals wherever it camps out today. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Man that band is ripping over Eden and Boston right now! Some 35dbz returns! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 24" is the overnight winner in copenhagen. The mesonet station camera is certainly impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Man that band is ripping over Eden and Boston right now! Some 35dbz returns! Just lovely ain't it? I wonder if we could get some 4-5"/hr rates later on when it starts to lift northward toward the city.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Special Weather Statement906 AM EST THU JAN 5 2017...LAKE EFFECT SNOW DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH...A band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates of 2 to 3inches per hour will continue to drift slowly north across southernErie and western Wyoming counties through late morning. Heavy snowacross far northern Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties will taperoff as the band moves farther north.Winds in excess of 30 mph are expected with this band of lake effectsnow, producing blowing and drifting snow.Locations impacted include...Dunkirk, Fredonia, Hamburg, East Aurora, Evans, Boston, Eden, Warsaw,Bennington and Colden.This includes Interstate 90 between exits 59 and 57.This includes Route 219 from Orchard Park to Springville.Use extra caution if you must travel into or through this band ofheavy lake effect snow. Visibility will be reduced to less than aneighth of a mile with deep snow cover on roads.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Another big shift on the snow totals. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Prepare to get hammered South Towns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 18 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Prepare to get hammered South Towns 000 WWUS81 KBUF 051535 SPSBUF Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1035 AM EST Thu Jan 5 2017 NYZ010-051900- Northern Erie- Including the city of...Buffalo 1035 AM EST Thu Jan 5 2017 ...TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BUFFALO METRO AREA... A band of heavy lake effect snow across southern Erie County will continue to drift slowly north today, reaching the Buffalo Southtowns during the late morning and early afternoon. The band will then continue to drift north, reaching South Buffalo and Lancaster by around 2pm. The band will reach it's farthest north point during the late afternoon and early evening, becoming centered over the City of Buffalo to the Buffalo Airport and Akron for a few hours before moving back south across the Southtowns and into Southern Erie County after 7pm. This band of heavy lake effect snow is expected to severely impact the afternoon and evening commute for the central and southern portion of the Buffalo Metro Area, roughly along and south of Route 33. Snowfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour are possible in the heaviest portion of this band. Expect travel conditions to rapidly deteriorate from south to north during the afternoon. $$ HITCHCOCK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, ayuud11 said: 000 WWUS81 KBUF 051535 SPSBUF Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1035 AM EST Thu Jan 5 2017 NYZ010-051900- Northern Erie- Including the city of...Buffalo 1035 AM EST Thu Jan 5 2017 ...TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BUFFALO METRO AREA... A band of heavy lake effect snow across southern Erie County will continue to drift slowly north today, reaching the Buffalo Southtowns during the late morning and early afternoon. The band will then continue to drift north, reaching South Buffalo and Lancaster by around 2pm. The band will reach it's farthest north point during the late afternoon and early evening, becoming centered over the City of Buffalo to the Buffalo Airport and Akron for a few hours before moving back south across the Southtowns and into Southern Erie County after 7pm. This band of heavy lake effect snow is expected to severely impact the afternoon and evening commute for the central and southern portion of the Buffalo Metro Area, roughly along and south of Route 33. Snowfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour are possible in the heaviest portion of this band. Expect travel conditions to rapidly deteriorate from south to north during the afternoon. $$ HITCHCOCK They are looking to get slammed here for awhile. Someone will pick up a quick 18-24" just by late tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 What a beauty!That northward jog looks to have stopped for the last hour. Location timing seems to be spot on from the models but intensity is being extremely overachieved! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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