mikem81 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Get anything? Or just NW a bit? Looks at least 50 miles NW if not more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 Anyone know what the UKIE shows precip wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: Anyone know what the UKIE shows precip wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, mikemost said: Not bad getting closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, mikemost said: Another 50 miles would be huge.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Another 50 miles would be huge.. For suffolk co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Bottom line is you probably need a nw shift of about 150 miles in about 60 hrs on the mean of the models in order to get a significant snowstorm into Manhattan. Is that possible? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Yeah, 50 miles would allow the 4" at MTP on the UKMET to back up closer to ISP. This one is also 15 to 1 , so .5 would get it done for the coast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 despite western trends GEFS are ugly... not a single members comes up coast... almost every member looks identical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: Bottom line is you probably need a nw shift of about 150 miles in about 60 hrs on the mean of the models in order to get a significant snowstorm into Manhattan. Is that possible? Yes. Maybe. I'd say ceiling for NYC now is 3-4. LI may be another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, 50 miles would allow the 4" at MTP on the UKMET to back up closer to ISP. 50 mile shift would give everyone much more snow on the Ukmet. The shift would take place with the surface low near North Carolina. Trajectory would bring in a lot more precip to NYC. It's exponential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: despite western trends GEFS are ugly... not a single members comes up coast... almost every member looks identical The problem when dealing with improving N trend systems they tend to happen over multiple model cycles At 0z last night Salisbury MD had 0 today at 12z there`s 10 now . 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: The flip side of that will be a sharp cut off to the west with such dry air in place. Dewpoints will be in the single digits. KJFK GFS MOS GUIDANCE 1/05/2017 1200 UTC DT /JAN 5/JAN 6 /JAN 7 /JAN 8 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 31 38 21 28 20 TMP 34 34 33 33 34 34 33 33 35 35 31 28 25 23 22 24 26 26 24 24 20 DPT 6 7 10 13 18 20 20 19 18 15 12 9 6 6 6 8 9 10 11 7 4 Agree , Arctic waves favor the coast . These are painful for N and W peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the MA is going to be the jackpot zone on this. May be the best La Nina January snowfall for that section of the country since the 12/25/00 surprise snowstorm. Yeh there could some 20 inch amounts showing up there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 while we debate about the 2nd wave,something tells me the first wave will surprise many.the radar is looking better then anticipated and the low hasn't started forming yet. n.y.c/south and east looks prime. still have some time to track this critter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 hour ago, dmillz25 said: Ok I shall make this the 2 wave discussion thread. CMC at h5 looks better just didn't translate to the surface. Sorry, but this thread is now very difficult to follow, as a large % of posters aren't specifying which system they're talking about - should be separate threads for the separate events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: The 12z GFS is weak sauce. Barely anything unless you're on LI. Wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, RU848789 said: Sorry, but this thread is now very difficult to follow, as a large % of posters aren't specifying which system they're talking about - should be separate threads for the separate events. Everyone is talking about wave 2 at the moment. They'll mention wave 1 when the model runs come out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Ggem wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1113 AM EST THU JAN 5 2017 ...LIGHT SNOW TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT... DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ012>027-PAZ070-071-101-102-104-106-060415- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.170106T0100Z-170106T1100Z/ NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH- EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY- ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER- EASTERN CHESTER-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN... NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE... GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY... JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE... OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...LONG BEACH ISLAND... WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK... OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE... MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN 1113 AM EST THU JAN 5 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY. * LOCATIONS...NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE, SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY * TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 8 PM AND 11 PM THIS EVENING. THE SNOW BECOMES STEADY AND MODERATE AT TIMES LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THEN QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 3 AM AND 6 AM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...EXPECT HAZARDOUS TRAVEL TONIGHT WITH ROADS BECOMING SNOW COVERED. UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS MAY STILL BE SLIPPERY HEADING INTO THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. * TEMPERATURES...STEADY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING OUR TRAINED SPOTTER LINE...POSTING TO THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSMOUNTHOLLY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAPS IN ADDITION TO EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST EVENT ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/WINTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 WWA up for central and southern nj ...LIGHT SNOW TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT... DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ012>027-PAZ070-071-101-102-104-106-060415- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.170106T0100Z-170106T1100Z/ NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH- EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY- ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER- EASTERN CHESTER-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN... NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE... GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY... JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE... OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...LONG BEACH ISLAND... WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK... OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE... MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN 1113 AM EST THU JAN 5 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY. * LOCATIONS...NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE, SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY * TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 8 PM AND 11 PM THIS EVENING. THE SNOW BECOMES STEADY AND MODERATE AT TIMES LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THEN QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 3 AM AND 6 AM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...EXPECT HAZARDOUS TRAVEL TONIGHT WITH ROADS BECOMING SNOW COVERED. UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS MAY STILL BE SLIPPERY HEADING INTO THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. * TEMPERATURES...STEADY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING OUR TRAINED SPOTTER LINE...POSTING TO THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSMOUNTHOLLY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAPS IN ADDITION TO EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST EVENT ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/WINTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Ggem wave 1 really echoing my thoughts on what might happen right along the coast. also latest sref's members have increasingly gone up also for both events. generally 4-8 inches from both across the area. getting interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 In addition to the WWAdvisories being issued for Middlesex/Mercer/Lower Bucks and everywhere south of there in NJ/SEPA/DE, Mt. Holly had a nice updated AFD talking about mesoscale banding. As people on this board would likely know, with mesoscale banding, pinpointing the heavier bands is nearly impossible (much like convective t-storms in the summer). In scenarios like this, some small areas (like part of a couple of counties) could get 3-5" of snow, while everyone around them could get 1-3" of snow. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... 930 AM Update...We are in the process of analyzing the incoming 12Z model guidance. Hourly temps, PoPs and Wx grids were already updated for tonight and are included in the 930 AM ESTF. We anticipate sending out an updated snowfall map and issue any winter weather advisories before noon. The 12Z NAM, latest RAP and HRRRx (which goes out far enough to capture the entire event) indicate a band of heavier snowfall (2-3") that develops late this evening near the Mason-Dixon line in SE PA/N Delmarva and expands northeastward into central NJ overnight. We continue to see a trend to the northwest with the placement of the mesoscale snow band. Additionally, the models show a local min in precip between this leading snow band to the north and heavier precip offshore, which is where we previously forecast the axis of heavier snowfall to occur. A period of moderate snow on the western edge of the precip shield from the coastal low may occur late tonight or early Friday morning over coastal NJ but it`s still a very close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, this may turn out to be the biggest event of the whole winter for them down there. Given their climo, I'd change the word "may" to "almost certainly" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Wave 1 is 1-3/2-4" central jersey to Long Island in euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 500 already looks better imo on euro for weekend wave, energy further ahead of steering piece, and stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 Looks like it's coming NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Euro is gonna come west, idk how much yet, but the trough orientation through 06z Saturday is much improved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 21 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Wrong I was making an analysis based on the data that I saw, not some bogus weenie snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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