mikem81 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Agree . Both waves . NAM 3K takes the second wave to the Benchmark... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Rgem at 06z was a improvement over 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, mikem81 said: NAM 3K takes the second wave to the Benchmark... The 3k and 4k are snowier / I took the least snowy options . The UKMET was close in the S/E at 0z to correcting to this , so we have to wait for the better skill score models to grab this. I think they do . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 12z RGEM is 1-3" for most. Less than an inch for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: 12z RGEM is 1-3" for most. Less than an inch for the interior. How is the setup ahead of wave 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Rgem wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 @Morris Remember, that map includes wave 1. So it's probably about 2-4" for the city for wave 2 verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3km NAM is only about 1-2" for wave 1, so that's 6-8" for wave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 nam is an outlier here with how far NW it comes. need to see todays noon euro run but in typical nam fashion I think it is getting our hopes up just to lay the crush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 26 minutes ago, PB GFI said: The 3k and 4k are snowier / I took the least snowy options . The UKMET was close in the S/E at 0z to correcting to this , so we have to wait for the better skill score models to grab this. I think they do . The coincident mini-PNA spike (now bringing it close to 0) and mini-dip in the EPO around the date of the 2nd wave is intriguing. I'm still not sure if we're dealing with a "too little, too late" scenario or a snowier outcome. I'll be looking forward to the GFS and ECMWF runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: RGEM similar to Euro and GFS on the second wave. Looks like a classic case of the first wave tomorrow shifting the baroclinic zone just a bit too far east for the second wave. At this time, I still think this is the most likely scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 i'm going with the first wave surprise and the 2nd wave coastal scraper for now. i do think they both nudge a bit north and west though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The 12z GFS is weak sauce. Barely anything unless you're on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The 12z GFS is weak sauce. Barely anything unless you're on LI. .15" of liquid is the same 1 to 2" it's been showing. Actually a tick wetter Unless you're talking about wave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, two wave significant hits are pretty rare. Would be nice to see a replay of that February 8-11/94 one-two event sometime. Was also a very narrow stripe of heavy snow. 100 miles north or south of nyc saw far less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 thing i have noticed is the blocking isn't as strong as all the models have them.the upper low in canada seems to also be retreating and giving a path up the coast,it's safe to say it might be really close for us on the coastal plain if the baroclinic zone shifts northwest which may in fact happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: That was a very rare event. More times than not, the first wave shifts the baroclinic zone east and the second event is light or suppressed. Looks like we could swing some light snows from both events. Maybe the second one has some wiggle room to creep NW in later runs for more than the 12Z GFS and RGEM is showing. It was hard to forecast as well. I remember the call was 2 to 4 and that narrow strip of 8 to 12 showed up for the first storm. Then wave 2 was 6 to 12 and we saw isolated amounts much higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: That was a very rare event. More times than not, the first wave shifts the baroclinic zone east and the second event is light or suppressed. Looks like we could swing some light snows from both events. Maybe the second one has some wiggle room to creep NW in later runs for more than the 12Z GFS and RGEM is showing. The separation between them may just be far enough apart. The first wave also is not a bomb yet when its off the coast here, so that helps too. If that thing was 980 something off the LI coast then the 2nd event would be done. Not just here but maybe in the SRN MA too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 53 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The coincident mini-PNA spike (now bringing it close to 0) and mini-dip in the EPO around the date of the 2nd wave is intriguing. I'm still not sure if we're dealing with a "too little, too late" scenario or a snowier outcome. I'll be looking forward to the GFS and ECMWF runs. Don, this is why I think wave 2 could be 6 to 12 with wave 2 on the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 Ok I shall make this the 2 wave discussion thread. CMC at h5 looks better just didn't translate to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Ok I shall make this the 2 wave discussion thread. CMC at h5 looks better just didn't translate to the surface. The RGEM/CMC were both odd at 12Z. The RGEM had that similar issue in the SE, not so much up here. The CMC seemed to have that noticeable almost everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The RGEM/CMC were both odd at 12Z. The RGEM had that similar issue in the SE, not so much up here. The CMC seemed to have that noticeable almost everywhere. Maybe a blip run or didn't start correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 19 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Don, this is why I think wave 2 could be 6 to 12 with wave 2 on the coast The PNA had a similar mini-spike just ahead of a snowstorm that affected parts of the East in the January 12-14, 1982 period. The forecast rise in the PNA would occur around the system this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The PNA had a similar mini-spike just ahead of a snowstorm that affected parts of the East in the January 12-14, 1982 period. The forecast rise in the PNA would occur around the system this time around. Don , I think this ends up on the Arctic boundary So I think this comes up over OBX then this really does scream NE not ENE . If we can sharpen the W a little more than we will tug the center close to the coast . We may snow in the teens with this . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Don , I think this ends up on the Arctic boundary So I think this comes up over OBX then this really does scream NE not ENE . If we can sharpen the W a little more than we will tug the center close to the coast . We may snow in the teens with this . UKIE looks pretty nice as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 Yep UKIE is NW of 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=048&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=060 UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, dmillz25 said: Yep UKIE is NW of 0z Get anything? Or just NW a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Get anything? Or just NW a bit? just a bit, still need more to get a NAM solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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